Hand Quiz from SSH: Turn Play #8

[eric5148]

You have Ah Qh on the button. Four players limp, and you raise. SB folds, BB calls, the limpers call (12.5 small bets).

The flop is Qs Ts 7h, giving you top pair and a backdoor nut flush draw. BB bets, the first limper calls, and the second one raises. The next player cold-calls, and the final limper folds. You call. The BB and first limper call (11 big bets).

The turn is the 3c. It's checked to the flop raiser who bets. The next player calls (13 big bets). What should you do?

Ed Miller says raising the turn is the best play because you have a vulnerable hand. Many players are afraid to raise the turn with one pair when someone has bet into them. Many times an unexpected turn bet indicates weakness, not strength. When you see someone check-call the flop and bet the turn, for many players, his chances of bluffing or betting a weak made hand have gone up.

Here is what I was thinking while reading this: Why is it a bad idea to 3-bet the flop? Now the BB and first limper are faced with calling 2 more. Calling basically gives them a free card. With a vulnerable hand, aren't you trying to knock out opponents as soon as possible to increase your chances of winning the pot?

When the blank comes on the turn the limpers will probably fold anything but a flush draw since your preflop raise and flop 3-bet indicated you have a strong made hand. It won't matter if they have to call one or two bets on the turn, and the flop raiser will stay in the hand either way.

Perhaps my thinking is retarted, and you can berate me. But I just don't understand this concept of waiting for the turn.

[LowDown22]

[ QUOTE ]
When the blank comes on the turn the limpers will probably fold anything but a flush draw since your preflop raise and flop 3-bet indicated you have a strong made hand. It won't matter if they have to call one or two bets on the turn, and the flop raiser will stay in the hand either way.


[/ QUOTE ]
What if BB has a K9 giving a gutshot straight draw? Assume you re-raise the flop (13BBs total) and everyone checks to you on the turn, and you bet. You are now offering the BB 14 to 1, he's right to call with almost anything in that case, gutshot, overcards, etc.

Assuming we don't re-raise the flop and it plays out like the quiz however (call flop, raise turn), the BB is now getting 15 to 2 odds. Now he should be folding those overcards and that gutshot, thus you have protected your hand much better.

You'll never knock out the flush and OESD draws in a big pot, so trying to make them pay is pointless. In this quiz exmaple, I should also note that if the flush does hit on the turn, you have saved yourself one SB by not re-raising the flop.

[Peter Harris]

the idea that raising the flop is good because you have pot equity is offset by the fact that you will be outdrawn quite a lot on this board.

If you wait till the turn, a blank boosts your pot equity higher, and forcing people to pay 2BB cold (when the flop bettor is on your right) cuts their odds to draw.

If you had raised the flop, it would be correct for them to call 2BB on the turn.

Regards,
Pete Harris