30-60 hand....did I borrow Mike's crackpipe?

I was at the Bellagio this weekend. I mostly played 15-30, but Saturday night, there was a 30-60 game that I figured I'd sit in for a while, for kicks, mostly.


The game consisted of 2 players whom I respected right off the bat (Roy Cooke, who was on my immediate right), and "Sunglasses Mike", who I had played 15-30 with the day earlier. He was about 4 seats to my left.


On the hand in question, there were 3 or 4 limpers to me (we were 8 or 9 handed at the time), and I limped on the button w/ 33.


The SB raised, BB folded, and we saw the flop 5 or 6 handed. The SB was very very straightforward, which is nice. I don't think he's doing this raise w/ a JTs type of hand. Instead, I'm fairly sure he has a big pair or overcards.


Flop comes 754 rainbow. SB bets, and three players call to me. I called. Don't really know why. Maybe I felt that I had the implied odds to spike a 3, and hope nobody had a 6 (nobody raised the flop bet, so it's semi-likely that nobody had a 6), and I felt a 6 may be an out. In reality, I was sort of hoping for an A or 2 on the turn for a semibluff turn raise.


Turn paired the 5, putting two clubs on the board.


Now, the SB checked. I couldn't in good mind think that the SB had an overpair now. I was moderately convinced that he had overcards...AK or AQ. Why check an overpair there? Seemed silly to me.


It gets checked around to the player 2 off of the button (I was the only active player to his left...he was second-to-last-to-act).


When the action got to him, he looked a little surprised that it had been checked that far, and it seemed that he decided on the spot to bet. I was dang near sure he didn't have a 5. As such, I felt that I likely had enough outs to call.


So I raised. One too many hits on the crackpipe, perhaps. The really interesting this is, I'm not too sure why I raised. Maybe I felt so unconvinced that he had a pair, so I was going to go to a showdown if heads up. Maybe I was so convinced that the early players (SB included) just had overcards, that I reallyh wanted to get them out, right here, right now.


But man, I can't get over this one thing...it just **Felt** like the thing to do at the time.


If you had to ask me, I didn't think I was really ahead at the time. But I read somewhere, sometime, that when pots get big, you should strongly consider maybe finding a way to stack the chips. This raise seemed like the best way to do it.


Well, all early players (including SB) folded. Other player called. River was As. We both checked, he turned over T8c, and I win.


Comments?

This hand feels similar to Mason's "A Pair of Fours" hand (I know many details are different) since your playing the turn aggressively with a hand which typically wouldn't justify it.


The same lesson should be taken from both hands: When the pot is big, you have to be willing to put in the extra bet if it increases your chances of winning the pot.


As for your flop play, you should have definately folded. Neither a 6 or 3 are reliable outs.

Josh,


IMO, This was a terrible call on the flop. Why wouldn’t a hand such as A6 not just call if the bet is from his right? Why wouldn’t an eight be out with this flop and action? Why wouldn’t a set be waiting until the turn to raise?


As bad as I believe your flop call was, I love your thinking regarding the turn raise. Ni hand minus the flop call.


Regards,


Rick

Dynasty -


Thanks for the comments. I think I fully agree with a flop fold in retrospect. I KNOW I agree to some extent, but I do think that a 3 is a reliable out. If there is doubt, well then, there is the full house chance. I just couldn't put an early position limper on a 6, and since a late player didn't raise, I couldn't put them on a 6.


I think AT BEST, calling the flop is EV neutral and massively increases my variance....not an ideal situation.


Thanks again,


Josh

well done. check on the end is fine as there is nothing you can beat if you are called.

Josh,


I think you played it perfectly on every street.


I'm the only one so far who likes your call on the flop. The thing I like about it, that you didn't use in defense, is that you are last to act. I can hardly think of a better example of the difference that makes. Let's say you were second to act on the flop, with four players behind you. Then calling the flop when the blind bets would be very bad, IMO, because when you hit a set or a straight on the turn, you will have a very hard time accurately folding or raising or calling, whereas, from the button, you can hit on the turn, a straight or a set, and have sufficient info to make a good choice when the action comes to you.


Also, you would not know how many raises or calls would come behind you (on the flop), whereas from the button, all is clear.


As proof, look what actually happened! When it goes check, check, check, bet to you on the turn, you need not defend or explain this raise. I think it's an autoraise. And recall that you missed! I was holding my breath while reading, hoping you'd find that play.


But let's say the same turn card had come, and you were second to act on the turn with multiple players behind. Could you ever find yourself in such a huge EV spot? No way. Position position position.


VERY Ni han!


Tommy

Hi Josh,


Given your read of the situation, (you were there, you have instincts, you rightfully went with them), I like the flop call.


Most of the time, you will simply muck this terrible hand on the flop. But, you correctly read the situation and decided to peel one off. Then, on the turn, you found out that your hand could very well be best and appropriately raised.


This, in my opinion, is an example of a play that only a truly good player makes. Of course, you won't always be right, but I'm willing to bet that you are right often enough to gain EV.


Calling the flop may be EV neutral (at best), but it is not going to massively increase your variance, it's only 1 small bet. If a King hits the turn and your hand hits the muck - no big deal.


However, winning this pot while most players would have folded will massively increase your variance - the good way.


soda

"At least he's on your right."


Nice play, nice play.


~D

"As for your flop play, you should have definately folded. Neither a 6 or 3 are reliable outs"


this is ridiculous. it's very close between a call and a fold on the flop so there's no definitely about it.

Call is ok because it completes the action. For one small bet, I would take another card.

All well said except notice that position position position in this instance is really position position position in relation to the preflop raiser and not position in relation to the button. Suppose the cut-off had raised preflop and Josh had called with his 33 on the button (a questionable but not entirely unreasonable call if players have already limnped ahead of the raiser), the correct turn play would be harder to make even if everyone checked.


BTW, an added bonus to the turn raise here is that it improves Josh's chances should he ht a 6 on the river as someone with an 8 would be hard pressed to call two cold. I say this assuming that the flop was 457 as I have forgotten what it was by now.