A9o cutoff 15-30

i have A9o in the cutoff in an okay 15-30 game. i openraise, the bb calls. the bb is skilled player who plays a few too many hands, but plays pretty well and pretty aggressively postflop.


the flop is A53. rainbow he checks, i check.


bb bets blind, the turn is an 8, i call.


he bets blind again. the river is an A. what should i do? if i raise should i call or fold to a 3 bet? or should i just call?


comments?

When I bet blind I usually have a pretty good hand. The exception is when I have a draw out out of position and my lone opponent checks the turn. In that case I'll consider betting blind.

Fire away! I might buy that he flopped two pair, but not trips. Had he flopped trips, I doubt he would be trying to maximize his profit on the hand by showing such aggression. He wants you to fold. However, he lost the pot on the river. If he did just make a boat, you can always roll him out in the parking lot after the game and get your last bet back.

call and you miss a raise.


raise and he three-bets and shows you a full.


his play seems devious--possible flopped set or aces up so i would call only.

"If he did just make a boat, you can always roll him out in the parking lot after the game and get your last bet back."


yeah i always remember to keep that option open.

I've played higher than 4-8 precisely twice in my life, so take this with a grain of salt (the entire shaker, more likely), but I'd have to call here.


As best I can tell, the only hands you can beat that he would bet blind on both the turn and river are 53, A4 and A2. I think you would have heard from a big pocket pair preflop, and the other hands he would consider betting blind (AK, AQ, A5, A3, 55, 33, 42) still beat you after you make trips.


Assuming that analysis is correct, you're a 2-1 dog right now; if you raise, you will more than likely be 3-bet by A5, A3, 55 and 33, and get a call and win out of A4 and A2. You're not going to get a hand that can beat yours to fold. Therefore, I think it's a mandatory call.


Big John

i think part of the confusion here is that none of us are ever too sure of what someone betting blind means. that tommy does it frequently as taught us all that it may in fact be a very very good way to mix up our play in the very least. or something like that.


i just called on the river and this time the blind better had QQ. makes sense when you think about it. he was very surprised when i tabled my A9. i think that's cause A: my flop check really did confuse the heck out of him and made him very confident he had the best of hand. and B: he thought i was a decent player up until that point but at that point he decided i was an awful novice (this was evidenced by the way he played against me on future rounds and i think it's a reasonable conclusion for a self-taught player who may be break even or a little better to make--at least that was my estimation of his abilities.)

so in that second sense, it looks my flop check paid off ni a meta-hand sense and will probably do so for sessions to come against this player (and others at the table perhaps).


as for not raising the river i was genuinely afraid he had and A with a better kicker. i think now that this fear was irrational and i had a certain value raise on the river.


but one last concern is that i think there is at least a 50% chance he wouldve come over the top with a river 3 bet if i had raised the river. i think he would figure my raise meant that i assumed he didnt have an A and that my presumed pocket pair might be better (he could put me on 99 or something for instance) and that he would 3 bet for value (which i think would be a reasonable play here). so one problem with my a river raise is that id have to call a 3 bet. however i still think i shouldve made a thin raise on the river. if anything, the continued zig-zagging fashion of that sort of play would further confound him and the others present.

Mike -


I haven't read the other responses or the results yet, but here goes.


I raise the river, and call if he three bets.


The blind bet, to me, screams "I don't have an ace!", because he wants you to think that he DOES have an ace. As such, I take his turn bet to be a bluff, or a small pair, so you don't want to raise the turn, because you could easily be raising out a hand that is nearly drawing dead. Just call the turn, and raise the river...give him enough rope to hang himself.


Now, on the river, you caught the perfect card, because he'll doubt even more that you have an A. As such, he may continue with his 'bluff' by threebetting the river, so I think you have to call. Of course, he could have AT or a fullhouse (I'm assuming he'd reraise with a bigger kicker), and you MAY lose when he threebets, but I like your chances.


Josh

Wow. I sorta thought he may have had a pocket pair, but not this high. I was thinking 66/77ish.


And, I agree with your hindsight evaluation...you do have a value raise on the river.....


But hey, you won.


Josh

Mike,


Before reading the results, I thought raise the river for sure. Your check on the flop indicates weakness, he's playing off of that. Good job, now finish him off by raising the river.


So, your analysis sounds good to me.


soda

If you raise on the river, would he call with QQ?