Huge mistake or accidental right play?

[stupidsucker]

Leaving out some details...

bubble on a 30+3 SnG
100-200 blinds
I have 260 in chips on the button
SB has 105 in chips (only 5 after postint the SB)
BB has about 600 chips left after his 200 BB post


I have A8s and I pushed by mistake when it was folded to me. The SB folds leaving him with 5 chips BB thinks about it and calls the mere 60 chips.

If I won isnt important. What the BB had was not important.

OK my FE is nil, but the SB should be folding this unless he has a huge hand.

If I push(I did) I am almost guaronteed to be HU against the BB, and if I win then I am in good shape. If I lose im out and SB is ITM with 5 chips. BB might actualy fold thinking I have to have a huge hand to push here in this circumstance.

If I dont push SB will very likely call for the additional 5 chips, and has a 50% chance to double up and equal my stack and I will blind out before he does.

In most cases I would fold this, but I have not convinced myself that is always the right play.

Anyone?

[RPatterson]

I'm just going to say that the folding equity of the big blind is non-existent. That other stuff is too hard to think about.

[Gramps]

Tough spot. If the BB will be up to 300 by the time you're in the BB (which SB will know, and thus fold a lot of hands), I say push. If not...I still don't think it's that bad of a play, because 2nd place is still up for grabs, and folding doesn't guarantee you of 3rd.

If you fold and SB calls and wins, he'll have 220, and you'll be the one who's all in at least by the time you're in the small blind (and SB will have 20 chips over the BB, so he won't be forced all-in on that hand). In that situation, advantage shifts from you to SB for getting 3rd.

If you fold and SB ALSO folds (leaving him 5 chips), you're still not in the clear. You have to pay 200 while SB is UTG, taking you down to 60 if you fold, and leaving you all-in in your small blind. SB is in the BB all-in in the BB with 5 chips, but if someone else enters the hand and SB beats you both, but you also lose to the other player, you're out in 4th place (not overly likely, but possible). If it's folded to you both in that spot, and he wins, then survives his SB, you're forced all-in first when he's UTG and you're BB...it gets confusing.

Folding helps your chances of getting 3rd, but it could screw your chances of 2nd, since beating BB will give you 600+ chips against his 600. You're a pretty good favorite against a random hand - maybe 2:1 on average (not sure of this, but seems approx. right). Maybe not the right play to push your A8s, but it looks like a close call IMO.

[stupidsucker]

excellent post gramps. I got a feeling during the play that I had stumbled on to an accidental good play after I cursed myself for pushing.

I just couldnt figure it out.

Anyone else have anything to add, or perhaps disagree?