99s with no overcards

[Redeye]

I've been struggling a bit lately, so I have decided to become a little more active in posting hands in the forum. No reads on any of the two villians.


Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls,

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, BB calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero ?

Final Pot: 9.25 BB



Now, questions: First, and most obvious, is this a value bet on the river? I am struggling a little to figure out what hands call that do not beat me here. Obviously the only thing I am worried about here is a checkraise, but should I bet or check it through? Also, if I were in first position, would I bet out or check?

Second, If BB raises the turn, do I let this hand go or call it down.

Any comments would be appreciated

[W. Deranged]

I think you can go ahead and value bet here (and bet out if your were in first position). I think there are a fair number of hands which BB might call with here that you are beating. It is likely that BB picked up some kind of straight draw (10 9 would be the kind of hand a BB defended with). In this case, you won't get paid off. But, BB might also be badly overplaying his overcards (and didn't have the sense to get out on the turn like CO did). When the 2 hits, you might get a call from a player with an A who thinks that an A will be good enough to split the pot (I actually think this is a very likely outcome).

Another reasonable possibility would be that the BB is playing some kind of small pair, hoping to snap off a bluff against overcards.

I also would not worry too much about a check-raise here. Any half-decent player with an 8 here probably let's you know about it before the river, either by betting top pair on the flop or getting agressive on the turn (bet or check-raise) when the second 8 comes. You might get check-raised if BB has a 2, but I'd take my chances with that (in that case I think BB would have played the hand very badly).