Need to pay off?

10/20. 4 limpers, I call in the SB with QJo, the BB raises and all call. 6 players, 12 SBs.


Flop: KQx r. I check, BB bets, two call, and I call.4 players, 8 BBs.


Turn: another Q. Everyone calls my check-raise of the BB's bet. 4 players 16 BBs.


River: another K. I check, BB bets instantly and with confidence. The others fold. The BB is a mediocre player with a bluffing streak, but his reaction to the K pairing seems genuine to me. On the other hand, it's hard to fold a boat at 17:1 no matter what the board. What's the right play, and is it close?


-Dan

I called, and he had K10o for kings full.

Raise KTo in the BB? WhattaFish...

this is an extremely difficult decision. Its 17:1 however, he's betting into a sizable field on the river on a scary board. Its almost certain he has a king. Whether its more than 94% sure is up for debate. Can you ever be truly THAT sure? Add the fact you were pretty convinced from his physical tell that the king hit him, PLUS that he raised out of the big blind I would probably actually fold here.

I don't know if anyone can help you here. You're really the only one who can decide if the BB might bluff more than 6% of the time here. It sure seems like he should have the goods, as you said "Queen!" loud and clear on the turn, and he's now betting the river into a field which would appear to have at least 1 caller (you). I would probably call since I am mistrustful and paranoid by nature (poker made me that way /images/wink.gif), and your check could have caused him to think AA is now good.

Shuky and Coilean,


You're both obviously right. It's a close decision and a stupid post. It's a stupid post because the type of analysis necessary is so simple, and I am the one best able to judge the intangibles (since I was there). However, I appreciate your both in essence saying that it was close, since that confirms my own feelings. Sometimes it's just nice to make sure that you're not crazy about what is close.*


-Dan


* Knowing where is close is of particular importance in these river decisions, since so much equity is won and lost there (both because it's a big bet and because it's there is no chance for a worse hand to improve).

What is close, is your call out of position getting 14:1 on the flop. These kinds of flops are just about the worst flops I can think of that one can 'hit' (ie flop a pair).


The pre-flop action, the number of players and the board suggests a number of things:


- You are very close to never ahead here.


- You have five outs at best, but these look in danger of being tainted and are all together very insecure. KK and KQ WILL occur in pots like these, and I think a Jack will give you the best hand in somewhere around 30-40% of the time. It will also put a shedload of re-draws out there.


-It will very often cost you additional money to see the river. Chances of a check here are remote.


In a tough game, I would not check-raise your trip Queens on the turn here. Good opponents will check behind to such a scare card after three callers on the flop with hands as good as AA, AK ("check hands with few outs, bet hands with strong redraws"). AA and AK are also pretty far ahead IF best on the turn (few losing cards), so there's not much reason to bet.


lars

I think that the main point in situations like this is that you never know all of the information, as is the nature of poker. Thus, you don't know if you're gonna be right or wrong. What you DO know, is that your decision will either be a little wrong or very right. That's why I always call in these situations. Even if I'm wrong EVERY time, it only costs pennies, if that, since I can get the "he's a calling station, I'll never bluff him" reaction from some weaker players. If I always fold, I just need to be wrong on occasion here for true disaster to occur. This is not the time to be known as a "folder."