20-40 hand

I made a big mistake tonight (based on results), but I'm trying to figure out how big a mistake it was.


The hand:


I have A5 of hearts in the BB. UTG raises (he raised earlier UTG with AJ), 2 cold callers, I call.


Flop 993 with 2 clubs and 1 heart.


I check, he bets, both cold callers fold, I call.


I call because I am planning to check raise the turn no matter what. I have not been caught bluffing yet in this session and the other player has seen me play only solid and tight.


Turn 10 of hearts. Yes, I even have outs!


I check, he bets, and I raise. He thinks for about 2 seconds and calls.


At this point, I am convinced he has a big pair. I saw him call down ealier in a similar situation with Kings and lose. He didn't think about folding then either. Not only that, but I have the ace of hearts, so the only hand he could have called me just for outs was a club draw.


I was so sure that he had a big pair though, I flubbed the river. He showed me the AQ of clubs and dragged the pot. I still feel sick over this, as I almost always follow through on turn bluffs and the $360 pot would feel nice in my pocket. I still scored a big win, but I feel it should have been bigger.


As I'm thinking about this now, though, do you think I was getting 9-1 that he had a flush draw and not a pair?

I'm not convinced he would have folded had you bet the river. Remaining in results mode, you might have played it perfectly.


Tommy

Bet the flop and bet the river. Show strength all the way.


You played the way I do, with a meek check on the river.

Guys usually cold=call with either pocket pairs or A-high card or A-xs. Once the two cold-callers fold on the flop of 9-9-3, it increases the chances of the folders having had A-something and thus decreases the chances of the bettor having A-something, increasing his chances of having a pocket pair.


Ergo, I fold on the flop. If for some reason I call on the flop, I would bet the turn.