Who Will Win The Election?

[Knockwurst]

While this has been discussed in other threads, I thought it would be interesting to gather people's prognostications in one thread. How do you think election night will play out? It seems like the middle states and Deep South except for Florida are solidly for Bush while the West Coast and New England/New York are solidly for Kerry. Anyone who says that either candidate will win in a landslide is deluding themselves. Can Kerry win without Florida? Can Bush win without Ohio and Florida? It seems as though there are more must win states for Bush ie. Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri. But I think Florida is a must win for Kerry. While I think it will be close, I think many of the close states will break Kerry's way as election day nears. I think it will be Kerry winning the popular vote by 1% and the electoral vote by about 50-60 votes.

Here are some links:

http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7779

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.php

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0726.html

[Wake up CALL]

Bush will win and quite handily.

[cardcounter0]

Who ever Diebold says.

[riverflush]

It's a really mixed bag right now. The polls seem to favor Kerry in some key swing states, but Bush has stronger numbers in the "likely voters" category (registered vs. likely is a distinction).

I think Bush will win Florida...if 2002's election is any indicator, the Dem's have actually lost ground in that state. All the polls had Jeb ahead by a mere 2 or 3 points, and he won by a landslide 56-43 margin...and this was even after the 2000 election fiasco . The polls seem to be useless in that state. I think it's trending Bush.

What should really concern Kerry is:

1) Zero bump out of the convention, which is really unprecidented. Either voters have already made up their mind, or this covention was a massive dud.

2) Minimal bump for Edwards pick. This is also disturbing for Kerry, as it shows that (despite massive media hype) Edwards won't have much effect on the election at all. Contrast that to Cheney's negative public image, and you have a major lost opportunity.

3) Swift Boat/Cambodia lasting 20 days+ as a media story. Instead of getting out in front of this thing, Kerry sat back for nearly 3 weeks and didn't respond to the attack. Now, it's festered around and grown into a monster - and all Kerry can do is send threatening letters and lawsuit complaints? He should have jumped on it hard 3 weeks ago and called these guys out immediately. Make a big appearance where he thrashes these guys in a speech...and plays up his love for the country and service, etc. etc. He should have done that August 1, not August 24th.

With no bump from the convention, this Vietnam controversy can take away his 3% or 4% advantage in a heartbeat.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Bush will win and quite handily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

I'm curious, what states do you think that Bush will win that Al Gore won in 2000?

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bush will win and quite handily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

I'm curious, what states do you think that Bush will win that Al Gore won in 2000?

[/ QUOTE ]

None, need he win any more states in 2004 than in 2000 to be elected quite handily?

[nicky g]

I agree. There is no way a liberal Massachussets senator will beat a "wartime" President. Plus Kerry has the charisma of a rotting corpse and his post convention bounce was negligible. And if all else fails, Bush will cheat. Kerry is toast.

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
None, need he win any more states in 2004 than in 2000 to be elected quite handily?

[/ QUOTE ]

He still got alittle work to do

http://images.andale.com/f2/107/123/10224380/1091660923193_battleground.jpg

Still alotta blue!

[nothumb]

I think the likely voters category is crucial, and what people forget is that pollsters do not consider young voters to be likely, but those voters are going to turn out big this year. Bigger than ever before, quite possibly.

However, Jeb is once again purging the rolls in Florida and I absolutely do not trust the results from electronic voting machines. Call me paranoid, but they can't even produce the records from the 2002 elections in Florida even as Jeb is claiming these machines are foolproof.

I honestly think there will be some very dirty tricks in this election.

NT

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
However, Jeb is once again purging the rolls in Florida and I absolutely do not trust the results from electronic voting machines. Call me paranoid, but they can't even produce the records from the 2002 elections in Florida even as Jeb is claiming these machines are foolproof.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is going to come down to FLA this year. I think the walls are going to fall in on Bush with him also losing in NC Virgina and there are a few other state that bush won big in 2000 that are becoming battleground states.

[Nepa]

I forgot Tenn.

[Stu Pidasso]

PinnacleSports

Party to win 2004 US Presidential Election
Republican -117
Democratic +107


Stu

[theBruiser500]

wouldn't it make sense for a huge democratic turnout in florida this election?

[CCass]

I am beginning to sound like a broken record. There is no way Kerry wins TN. As I have posted elsewhere, there are no Kerry ads running on local TV stations, no radio spots (I am in the Nashville area), nothing. The Kerry campaign has written off TN, with good reason. Any poll that show TN as slightly Kerry is flawed.

I live in a county that is fairly typical of Tennessee (from a political point of view). All of our local elected officials are Dems, our state Rep and state Senator are both Dems, and our US Congressman is a Dem. Bush will carry this county by a 10% margin. People here (and in TN in general) aren't going to vote for someone that is perceived to be liberal. Gore didn't win here, neither will Kerry.

As for my prediction about the election, I think the two candidates will be within 1% of each other in the popular vote, and I think the electoral college will come down to Ohio. From a purely mathematical point of view, Bush has to win Fla and Ohio.

[Nepa]

It not only ads that win elections.

Tenn. Polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/tn_polls.html)

[Nepa]

All Colorado to the list of battleground states.

Colorado polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/co_polls.html)

[CCass]

My point about ads is that if the Kerry team thought TN was in play, then they would be trying to sway the voters. They don't, so they aren't.

I have posted this elsewhere, but will post it again. I am offering 2 to 1 odds that Bush wins TN. I haven't had any takers yet.

[Nepa]

I have posted this elsewhere, but will post it again. I am offering 2 to 1 odds that Bush wins TN. I haven't had any takers yet.

One point though, if Kerry does win TN, Kerry win by a landside.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
I have posted this elsewhere, but will post it again. I am offering 2 to 1 odds that Bush wins TN. I haven't had any takers yet.

One point though, if Kerry does win TN, Kerry win by a landside.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Bush must win the south (including NC). Also, if Kerry wins Florida (and no other southern state), I think he wins the electoral college by a landslide, and probably the popular vote as well (in todays world of partisan politics, I define a landslide as ~6%).

[tolbiny]

Or would it make sense that a frustrated group of people who feel they have been screwed over in the past and have a legitimate reason for believing that their vote "means nothing" will not turn out at all.

[jcx]

Anyone who thinks Kerry has even a slight chance of winning is kidding themselves. He is way too liberal. Can you say George McGovern? How about Michael Dukakis? They were running close in the polls the whole campaign but got shellacked in November. Expect more of the same. This is just my objective opinion. I won't be voting for either of these men.

[riverflush]

Common sense tells us that we're likely to have a massive Democratic vote turnout in Florida...as retribution for 2000's "voting disaster". But as I'll say again, Dem's lost handily in 2002's mid-term, the earliest opportunity angry Democratic voters had for revenge. This should not be discounted. The "angry backlash vote" never happened.

Jeb's 56%-43% win is not a good sign in that state for Dems, and means much more than any current poll.

BTW - polls are about as valuable in predicting this thing as a 7-2 offsuit under the gun.

[andyfox]

The most widely known fact about George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election was that he hated broccoli. 86% of likely voters in that election knew that the Bushes' dog's name was Millie; only 15% knew that Bush and Clinton both favored the death penalty. 70% of Americans cannot name their senators or congresssman. 49% believe the President has the power to suspend the Constitution.

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
The most widely known fact about George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election was that he hated broccoli. 86% of likely voters in that election knew that the Bushes' dog's name was Millie; only 15% knew that Bush and Clinton both favored the death penalty. 70% of Americans cannot name their senators or congresssman. 49% believe the President has the power to suspend the Constitution.

[/ QUOTE ]

That’s why I never trust polls until after the World Series. A few people start to think about things then but just a few.

Andy, I think we could take over and run this country don't you? We are both 50 years old and have enough juice left for one more push into the stormy seas of fame and imbecility. It's a no brainier as the young folk say. With your wit and my engaging charm it would be a walk.

We could resurrect the old Roman custom of government and have two Consuls run the country. You could take the reins the majority of time, I would spend most of my time partying with Ukrainian babes and hobnobbing with Asian cuties (or more appropriately, having my nob hobbed by Asian cuties). But that’s just a sidebar.


I plan to start drinking early on election day – then go vote, then go fishing or hiking or skiing depending on the weather, slurping from a bottle of whisky the whole day. With any luck, I won’t know the outcome until the next day.

America - We Kick Ass. /images/graemlins/grin.gif/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif


-Zeno

[Senor Choppy]

I'm impressed that 30% of us can name our senators or congressmen. Go America!

[Stu Pidasso]

This guy is pro Kerry, He updates his map (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) daily, and according to him Bush is starting to gain ground.

Stu

[Duke]

[ QUOTE ]

The most widely known fact about George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election was that he hated broccoli. 86% of likely voters in that election knew that the Bushes' dog's name was Millie; only 15% knew that Bush and Clinton both favored the death penalty. 70% of Americans cannot name their senators or congresssman. 49% believe the President has the power to suspend the Constitution.

[/ QUOTE ]
The first problem with being informed when it comes to politics is that there is too much misinformation to sort through. Another is that whatever knowledge you had about it is outdated 6 months down the line. A third is that politics is a bunch of bullshit anyhow. The last problem I'll mention is that if I knew my Senator's name, I'd just have one more person to be disgusted with.

~D

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy is pro Kerry

[/ QUOTE ]

I was fooled once and voted for Bush last time.

[andyfox]

Sounds like a plan. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
Bush will cheat. Kerry is toast

[/ QUOTE ]

Like how so?

[adios]

I think Kerry has a good shot at winning this election. I heard an interview with Alexander Haig the other day talking about the U.S. needs to be prepared for a 10 year committment in Iraq. Even though Haig may be an extremist of sort, I think that when push comes to shove and people see that the Republicans are more or less proposing a long term committment in Iraq the U.S. electorate will decide that is something that they don't want to sign up for. Even though the Democratic platform is more or less calling for the same thing IMO, people don't believe that Kerry would be committed to Bush's war. I don't believe Kerry would be committed to such a war. I'm fairly certain I won't vote for Kerry but I'm just calling it as I see it. Anyway take what I say and bet it the other way because I couldn't have believed a year ago that Kerry would have a prayer of being elected. Andy and friends warned me it was way to early to tell and they were right.