Newb Alert: Counting Outs - Need advice

[Calufraxis]

Moderators, if this isn't the right forum, please let me know or move it to where it is appropriate.

I've been playing poker for about two months now, with no previous experience. During that time I accumulated about 4k hands and I am up about 300bb at my limit from a 250bb loss during the first 3 weeks. These are micro limits so it isn't anything out of the ordinary.

I have been earnestly studying WLLH and for the last week SSH. What I have learned in these books I truly feel is why I've had an upswing recently.

My question basically relates to counting outs to determine the values of the hands I am dealt. The books I have really put emphasis on the importance of the outs, but are really slim on the process. It may just be the neurons in my head aren't aligned yet, but I lack the confidence when it comes to counting outs in live games.

What I would like to do is post 10 hands from my last session and get a knowledgable count of the outs at the flop and turn. These are just the cards as played, including hands that I folded and without any bets shown.

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Number--Hand---Flop---Turn---River
10173--Qd Kh---Jc 2c 4c---9s---4d
10174--7s 5c---8d As Kh---8c---Td
10175--Ks 6h---Qh Ts Qd---8s---Qc
10176--Ah Qh---8s 3h 2c---6h---7d
10181--Kd 8s---3c Jc 4c---8h---5h
10182--2d 5c---6d 5h 7d---8h---Ks
10189--Js Td---2d 3s 4d---2h---6c
10190--6s 9c---Ts 6h 8s---9d---Ac
10191--Ac Ks---4d 3c 7s---8c---8h
10192--Kh Qs---Ks 2c 5h---Qc---7h

----

My attempt at first hand:
10173 Qd Kh---Jc 2c 4c -> 3 Kings, 3 Queens, 4 Aces, 4 Tens -> 14 Outs to improve the hand. Actually, Don't want any more clubs so 2Kings, 2Q, 3A, 3T -> 10 outs to improve.

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So am I missing something so trivial I can't see it? Any references to basic outs counting, statistics, etc would really be appreciated. I'm good with the concept, just fuzzy with the play.

Thanks,
Cal

[Evan]

Read the SSH section on counting outs and partial outs. Ed explains it better than most will.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
So am I missing something so trivial I can't see it? Any references to basic outs counting, statistics, etc would really be appreciated. I'm good with the concept, just fuzzy with the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing about counting outs, is that first you have to think about what your opponent has. Without that knowledge it doesn't really help a whole lot to go around countig a bunch of outs.


[ QUOTE ]
Qd Kh---Jc 2c 4c

[/ QUOTE ]

Just looking at your hand for example, how many outs do you have agaisnt each of these hands.


1) Ac 4h
2) 3d 7h
3) Ah Qd
4) Qs Qc
5) 2h 2d

[Big Country]

#3 isn't possible unless we are using a pinnochle deck, but let's call it the queen of hearts.

I'm putting my answers in white below, and am answering because I feel it can never hurt to practice counting outs.

1.) <font color="white"> 2K, 2Q, also, depending on turn card, runner-runner str8 possible </font>

2.) <font color="white"> already have best hand, kings and queens are clean to improve </font>

3.) <font color="white"> 3 kings are clean, as well as runner-runner str8 draw, running clubs for a split </font>

4.) <font color="white"> 2 kings, runner-runner str8 draw </font>

5.) <font color="white"> no easy outs, just runner-runner str8 draw, running clubs for a split </font>

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
I accumulated about 4k hands and I am up about 300bb .... What I have learned in these books I truly feel is why I've had an upswing recently.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't work that way! Obviously study will improve your win rate, but you should never fall into the trap of attaching too much meaning to short term results. Even if you improved from a -1BB/100 loser to a +2BB/100 winner that would mean you can expect to make 80BB per 4,000 hands in the long run.

Unfortunately your recent 300 BB winning streak is probably just God lifting up your head so he can get a good swing at your nose. If you ask nicely, he might let you take your glasses off first.

[ QUOTE ]

My attempt at first hand:
10173 Qd Kh---Jc 2c 4c -&gt; 3 Kings, 3 Queens, 4 Aces, 4 Tens -&gt; 14 Outs to improve the hand. Actually, Don't want any more clubs so 2Kings, 2Q, 3A, 3T -&gt; 10 outs to improve.


[/ QUOTE ]

In general, just count your backdoor draws as 1.5 outs. So, here you wouldn't count the 4 Aces as individual outs because they only "improve" you to a gutshot straight draw. In fact, you shouldn't even bother with backdoor straight outs on a monochrome board, so don't count those at all.

Basically, you just have 2 overcards, which is 6 outs. But you don't want to count the clubs, so that leaves you with 4 outs to make top pair good kicker before going on to lose to 8c6d.

Because of the flushy board this is the type of hand that is very situational dependent. Size of pot, number of opponents, and the action to you are the deciding factors. This is the type of hand where, as Mr. Jones like to say, you should be looking for reasons to fold.

But play aggressive! But fold. But don't be weak tight! But fold. Isn't poker fun?

/mc

[Louie Landale]

The basic use of "outs" is to compare the two ratios [1] BadOuts-to-GoodOuts and [2] SizeOfPot-to-SizeOfBet. Thus is you have 9 outs and there are 47 cards left in the deck then 47-9=38 "bad outs" and your odds are 38:9 or 4.1:1 against. If the pot is 4.1 times larger than the cost you should call, otherwise fold.

But these "outs" are presumptively "winning outs": cards that make you WIN the pot. Lets not confuse them with "improving" outs: outs that improve your hand. If you have a flush draw and the opponent a made straight; you have 9 outs. If you have a straight draw and the opponent already has a flush, you may hav 8 cards that "improve" to a straight and another 6 that "improve" to a pair; but you realistically have zero outs. Another exaggerated example: if the board is AKQ and you have 32, you may have "6 outs" but they are worthless.

So when figuring your outs, you'll need to "downgrade" them depending on how likely they are to make you win.

And then there are outs that give you a draw. In your example, the A and T give you a gut draw which isn't very good. These backdoor draws need to be serioulsy downgraded since they are so unlikely to yeild a win. They must also be downgraded since the cost of drawing must include an additional bet you will likely face on the turn. So even if a back-door flush draw is about 23:1 against which is almost the same as a 2-card pocket-pair draw, the flush draw is worth even less; about 1.5 outs.

Judging how likely you are to win is, no duh, mostly a matter of judgment. I basic rule-of-thumb I use (rather successfully, I might add), is if I'm not drawing to the stone-cold-nuts then my outs are worth only 50% of their face value; and I adjust from there. Examples:

[1] I have an A-high flush draw on a non-paired board and the opponent with at least a pair bets. I have 9 outs to almost the nuts and another 3 outs for a pair of Aces. I also have a back-door straight draw (worth 1.2 outs) and a back-door trips draw (.3 outs). I think the flush or the trips will win 9 times in 10, the pair will win half the time, and the straight 75% of the time. So I have realistically (9+1.2)*.9=9.2 outs for the flush/trips, 3*.5=1.5 outs for the Ace, and a paltry .3*.75=.2 outs for the straight; for a total of 9.2+1.5+.2 = "10.9 outs". That's the same as "9 outs for the flush plus a couple for my unlikely draws". That's a lot of outs. 47-10.9 = 36.1; 36.1:10.9= 3.3:1 against making it on the next card.

[2] I have bottom pair botton kicker. That's 3 outs for two-pair and 2 outs for trips, plus a back-door one-card straight. I figure the two-pair will win half the time and trips win 90%. That's 1.5+1.8+.2 = "3.5 outs". If the pot is big enough to justify calling then you probably made a mistake playing before the flop.

Don't confuse "improving" with "winning". Downgrade improving outs to winning outs.

- Louie

[paland]

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately your recent 300 BB winning streak is probably just God lifting up your head so he can get a good swing at your nose. If you ask nicely, he might let you take your glasses off first.


[/ QUOTE ]
I laughed when I first read this, but on reflection .. That is one deep statement.

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately your recent 300 BB winning streak is probably just God lifting up your head so he can get a good swing at your nose. If you ask nicely, he might let you take your glasses off first.


[/ QUOTE ]
I laughed when I first read this, but on reflection .. That is one deep statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks dude, that's what I'm drawing to.

/mc

[Calufraxis]

This maybe the most eductational gambling phrase I've heard.

Thanks,
Cal