$30+3 Bubble: Should I have called an all-in with ATo?

[AA suited]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">UTG (t1970)</font>
Button (t740)
<font color="C00000">HERO (t1970)</font>
BB (t3320)

Preflop: HERO is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t1970 (All-In)</font>, Button folds, HERO calls t1720 (All-In), BB folds.

Flop: (t4440) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t4440) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t4440) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t4440
<font color="green">Main Pot: t4440 (t4440), between UTG and HERO.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by UTG (t4440).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG shows Ad Js (one pair, fours).
HERO shows Ac Ts (one pair, fours).
Outcome: UTG wins t4440. </font>

I was multi-tabling so I had no reads. I hestitated about the call because the shortstack had less than 2BB. But if i fold, i'm down to 3.5BB.

The more i think about it, the more my call was a mistake. /images/graemlins/frown.gif if he had pocket pair, it was a coin flip with me needing help to win. and there;s obviously the shortstack about to be blinded away.

i should worry about taking a gamble (coin flip) only if i become the short stack and have less than 3BB. sigh..

You thoughts of my play?

[Nepa]

Let the button mix it up first. at this point I would rather be the one making the all-in bet then calling it.

[parappa]

At 10+1, I would've called button's all in but not UTG's.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
At 10+1, I would've called button's all in but not UTG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

yup. button might be stealing. utg raise = showing strength and should have only called if I had premium cards (JJ+) in this situation. heck, folding AKs to a raise in this situation would probably be the right thing to do. (AKs is behind to any pocket pair. not worth the risk when short stack is so low.)

sigh........

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
utg raise = showing strength and should have only called if I had premium cards (JJ+) in this situation. heck, folding AKs to a raise in this situation would probably be the right thing to do. (AKs is behind to any pocket pair. not worth the risk when short stack is so low.)

[/ QUOTE ]

im sorry, but this is just plain wrong. id call AKs no question. your prolly ahead, and if its a pair its virtually 50/50 (assuming your not up against AA or KK, but its unlikely). think of all the hands he could me making this move with, AQ, AJ, possibly AT depending on player, KQ(suited if a good player). your so far ahead you can barely see them in the mirrors. against any random hand your a 75% fave, against likely hands it must be over 60%. if you factor in pocket pairs its still over 50%. in fact my estimates are probably quite conservative. perhaps one of the math who better than me is can help here.

playing for first and getting fourth is better than playing for third and actually getting it.

but id have to assume that your behind with AT. and if your not the other guy is so low its a pass no problem. best off to risk nothing on a marginial hand, especially when a ITM is looking so likely. id probably pass AQ here as well (depends on any read i have about opponant, and stack sizes of course)

Phill

[Gramps]

You have an inside track on the money, button is very short stacked and will have to make an all-in play on the next orbit since he doesn't have enough to pay the blinds (750). I'd push with this hand acting first, but calling in this spot is very bad IMO. Not a lot of hands UTG would probably push here (with the presence of a very short-stacked button) that you're much of a favorite against.

Even if you were, on average, say a slight favorite, I think it's still a fold. If you call, and lose, you're out - you get 0% of the prize pool. If you call and win, you're looking good for top-2, but you're still about even with BB. If the prize structure was something like 15%/35%/50% I think it'd be a better play, but putting your 20% at risk in this spot in a 20/30/50 payout structure isn't worth the risk.

Even if UTG is pushing semi-crap, if you don't dominate him, he's still not much of an underdog. Easy fold (IMO).

[Phill S]

i think the idea that UTG will only push with big hands is false. ive seen people do the same with a lot less in hand histories for higher buy ins.

by the by. read the origional post, youll soon see my point in one hand. he pushed with AJ for christs sake.

i think your most likely to see:
1, pocket pairs, basicly a 50/50 shot
2, a smaller ace, AQ especially, i dont know how big your a fave here (hmm, shows a possible flaw in my game)
3, KQs, your 60% fave here if you have AT, like the above i dont know the exact odds, your a big fave though.

yes, you give up 20% of the pool if you lose, but so what, you shouldnt play for that 20%, its the 50% you want. you play for the 20% when you think you cant challenge higher due to no real opportunities. AK in the position is a grade A opportunity.

Phill