44 button hand

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Party 2/4

5 limpers to me. I raise on the button with 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB folds. BB calls. 5 limpers call. 7 of us to the flop for 14 sb.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks. UTG checks. UTG+1 checks. MP checks. LP checks. CO checks. I check. 7 of us to the turn for 7 bb.

Turn: 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets. UTG calls. UTG+1 folds. MP folds. LP calls. CO folds. I call. 4 of us to the river for 11 bb.

River: 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB bets. UTG folds. LP calls. I raise.

[bakku]

I like it all the way, I still can't bring myself to raise small PP's from the button though I know I should.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
though I know I should.

[/ QUOTE ]

says?

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
though I know I should.

[/ QUOTE ]

says?

[/ QUOTE ]

My math may not be good, bet let's take a look.

Odds of flopping a set:

2*C(49,2)/C(50,3) = .12 (or 7.3:1).

Odds of getting the set by the turn:

2*C(49,3)/C(50,4) = .16 (or 5.25:1).

If you are in LP with just limpers ahead, raising here will probably buy you a turn card. You improve your chances to win and is +EV with this many limpers (if checked to you on the flop). If you get your set on the flop, more power to you, they may put you on high cards.

BTW, the who that said it, I believe, was Sklansky.

[sthief09]

with 5 limpers, plus blinds, this is an incredibly easy raise. he got set value by raising, and he got a 4th community card. the raise won him the pot.

[sthief09]

I agree with the raise, but your math doesn't include the 25% or so of the time that your set gets cracked and ends up costing you ~6 BB.

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the raise, but your math doesn't include the 25% or so of the time that your set gets cracked and ends up costing you ~6 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

My math also doesn't include the 5% of the time you can bet out the turn unimproved and win ~30 BB /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

.05(30)-.25(6)=0

[sthief09]

what?

[BassMan712]

More importanly, assuming he didn't have the best hand at the turn, the raise pre-flop put enough extra $$$ to allow him to draw out on the river.

[sthief09]

well, 44 is a terrible drawing hand, since most of the time, you're drawing to 2 outs, so I wouldn't consider extra money in the pot for drawing odds a good thing. the fact that you entice people to draw to a pair, or call any pair, and get a free turn card are the only reasons I see for raising.

[bisonbison]

thank god for back door straight draws. Nice hand.

[Homer315]

Does anyone think he should have bet the flop, then checked the turn? If a 4 comes on the turn, you can bet again, but if one doesn't, it may still be checked to you, thus enabling you to see the river for 1 SB instead of 1 BB. If someone has a pretty good hand, they may check with the intention of raising the turn, thinking that the PF raiser and flop bettor will bet out again...

[sthief09]

you're betting with no outs. I'd rather see the turn first. when you get check-raised you're screwed and have to fold. if they bet the turn you wish you hadn't bet the flop. generally I'd only bet the flop if I had outs.

[Festus22]

I am perplexed by the turn call. 10:1 on a 23:1 shot? Did you really think you had the best hand at that point? Even after 2 overcalls?

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
I am perplexed by the turn call. 10:1 on a 23:1 shot? Did you really think you had the best hand at that point? Even after 2 overcalls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Gutshot!

[Festus22]

You're right.

A fine Festus airball on missing that one.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

BB calls. UTG folds.

BB has A5o for two pair and then berates me for my preflop raise and not betting the flop.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
the raise won him the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]


Don't you think he should of folded on the turn?

[AceHigh]

missed the gutshot.

[Entity]

Nice hand, Chris. I need to start working on raising these pairs from the button, etc., rather than just calling them. Finally starting to understand that. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think he should of folded on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is crazy.

[AceHigh]

I missed the gutshot draw.

Folding is a mistake, don't know about crazy.

[sfer]

Welcome back Festus.

[sfer]

Dude, this hand rules. What's your Button/CO raising frequency after a crowd with smallish pairs?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

After 5 limpers? Like 100% on the button. Not quite so sure in the CO though.

4 limpers, depends.
3 limpers, depends on the size of my pair.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
4 limpers, depends.
3 limpers, depends on the size of my pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Young one, it's not the size of your pair, it's how you use it.

[MoDOH]

Great Post and what an eyeopener! I Would say that this hand was played perfectly.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I just re-read this old post and was wondering, how many of you actually do raise in these spots preflop?

i've been seeing it done lately a lot in my 15/30 games. i'm not sure if its common place nowadays or just a weird couple of sessions with LAGs.

[Malcom Reynolds]

Folding a six outer needed 6.7 to 1 with the pot giving you 9 to 1 is crazy.

[sthief09]

with FIVE limpers, I think it's a good raise, and this hand shows why. for one, you're attaching people to their hands when you flop a set, and two, you often get 4 cards.

[Malcom Reynolds]

It's also a HEPFAP idea. In small stakes games where the players aren't pot size aware, you make a lot of money by out playing them in small pots, where they keep calling without odds. In large pots they are often playing the correct strategy (calling down).

In higher stakes games you can raise to make them chase their 5 outers giving you better implied odds when you have already hit your set on the flop and they are drawing dead.

I believe Sklansky also talks about raising suited connectors in these spots too, and makes the caveat that playing against weak players, raising here doesn't gain you much.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
I just re-read this old post and was wondering, how many of you actually do raise in these spots preflop?

i've been seeing it done lately a lot in my 15/30 games. i'm not sure if its common place nowadays or just a weird couple of sessions with LAGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do it every time in live games, also from the cutoff. In the soft games I play in the following happens...

1) Since I am normally following through on the flop many default to the pre-flop raiser(sometimes hoping to c-r).
2) Blinds both small and big often come along for the ride.
3) When I miss and lay down it makes people wonder what the hell I am playing? (My favorite is when the flop comes AK8 and I check/fold).
4) When I have hit and shown down...by the time that happens most players have forgotten about what position I was in pre-flop. (I have seen many players raise small PPs from ANY position).

That said I am sure the benefits in a tougher game would be more just the value of the play for when you do hit.

[sfer]

What he said. The passivity of live games almost guarantees getting to the turn for 2 SBs, and they're generally slightly more aware (at least in New York) than the average Party loon.

[Trix]

I dont think deception is needed in that game, so I limp.

BBs flop check rox.

[Entity]

Nice hand homie.

Rob

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice hand homie.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you have a man-crush on CDC? What's with the second bump in an hour of one of his ancient threads?

[ErrantNight]

i mancrush bisonbison. which is different the my /images/graemlins/heart.gif'ing dave

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nice hand homie.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you have a man-crush on CDC? What's with the second bump in an hour of one of his ancient threads?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bumped this because there's some discussion of raising mid-small pocket pairs from the Button in one of the threads on the front page here, and a lot of people are misunderstanding why/how to play these hands, and why/how it can be profitable. This is an old thread but a thread I consider to be good, and some of the newbies to SS who haven't read it might want to take a look.

And as far as the other thread goes, it was either that or the PLO/8 thread, but I think that one's way played out. Plus, that thread totally rules, and I think even with no content it's better than a lot of the [censored] being posted in this forum recently.

Oh yeah, and CDC rules. But that's an aside. This hand is actually cool.

Rob

[me454555]

This is a great spot to raise pf. You've got plenty of value w/that raise and it bought you a free turn. I've been doing it w/most of my pairs in late positoin in the typical loose passive commerce games where there are a ton of limpers.

I don't like your river raise though b/c bb could easily have a 2. he is bb right?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great spot to raise pf. You've got plenty of value w/that raise and it bought you a free turn. I've been doing it w/most of my pairs in late positoin in the typical loose passive commerce games where there are a ton of limpers.

I don't like your river raise though b/c bb could easily have a 2. he is bb right?

[/ QUOTE ]

The river is a really easy raise. What hands with a 2 is he betting on this turn? Maybe A2o, 24s. That's about it, right?

Rob

[pokerstudAA]

The turn call on this one is good with 6 outs getting about 10:1?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn call on this one is good with 6 outs getting about 10:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, yeah. How could it not be?

Rob

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice hand, Chris. I need to start working on raising these pairs from the button, etc., rather than just calling them. Finally starting to understand that. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]


Ditto - a few months later.

[jacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think he should of folded on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

For Private Joker:

SHOULD HAVE!!!!!

[pokerstudAA]

Right - 6 outs 13% needs 6.7:1 odds. No question here. I need to learn those odds #'s better.

[Trix]

There is often 5 limpers in the 15 ?

[me454555]

I dont know, I don't think he'd bet out the river w/out a 2 just my opinion though

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn call on this one is good with 6 outs getting about 10:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

46/6 - 1 = 7.67 - 1 = 6.67 < 10.

So 10:1 is WAY more than enough.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know, I don't think he'd bet out the river w/out a 2 just my opinion though

[/ QUOTE ]

A very high percentage of players would be out here with a pair on the river. You've got to consider all variables here, and there's no reason for him to think there's a two out there. There's definitely no reason to think he has a two after he bets the turn.

Rob

[me454555]

What do you do if 3 bet? lay it down?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if 3 bet? lay it down?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call.

Rob

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if 3 bet? lay it down?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really really can't see him having a 2 here. I'm not thinking it's impossible, but I think it's unlikely enough that I'm calling a 3-bet.

Rob

[me454555]

Well if you raise and get 3 bet, your knocking out the other caller and calling the 3 bet yourself. Your risking 2 bets there b/c I dont think they will 3 bet w/anything less than a 2.

I also dont know how often both will simply call your raise given that you've come alive on the river and there is a 4 strait on the board. If they don't have the 2 they may think it likely you do and toss their hand. No one has shown significant strenth in the hand and there is no reason to expect they will call the raise just for the hell of it.

These are all things to consider and I dont think raising the river is as straitfoward as you make it out to seem.

[Ice]

Chrisdaddy

Great pre-flop raise to tie the players in and maybe get a free card on the flop if you don't hit.Turn absolutely HORRIBLE call. You are getting 10-1 on a 23-1 shot and you can't possibly think your hand is good.

You got lucky on the river but if you keep making calls like this your game is heading in the wrong direction.Ice

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Please look at the hand again.

[Super Pro]

preflop raise is a joke

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
i mancrush bisonbison. which is different the my /images/graemlins/heart.gif'ing dave

[/ QUOTE ]

You can have bisonbison, but Nate tha Great is all mine.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

You got lucky on the river but if you keep making calls like this your game is heading in the wrong direction.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you keep missing calls like this your game is heading in the wrong direction.

[Ice]

chrisdaddy

Im Wrong i missed the gut shot you should call the turn everytime. OOPS. Ice

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if you raise and get 3 bet, your knocking out the other caller and calling the 3 bet yourself. Your risking 2 bets there b/c I dont think they will 3 bet w/anything less than a 2.

I also dont know how often both will simply call your raise given that you've come alive on the river and there is a 4 strait on the board. If they don't have the 2 they may think it likely you do and toss their hand. No one has shown significant strenth in the hand and there is no reason to expect they will call the raise just for the hell of it.

These are all things to consider and I dont think raising the river is as straitfoward as you make it out to seem.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't have advocated a raise if I didn't think you were good ~55% of the time you're called. I do. I actually think it's way higher than that: your PFR/flop check/turn call has got anyone with an Ace thinking their hand is good, especially someone with two pair. They aren't folding to a raise here, and they have the straight less often that 33% of the time.

I really think it's a clear-cut raise.

Rob

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
preflop raise is a joke

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you bother to read the thread and think about what is going on here?

Please stop with the black/white every situation has a perfectly correct play (and you happen to know what it is) nonsense. Think.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 2/4

5 limpers to me. I raise on the button with 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB folds. BB calls. 5 limpers call. 7 of us to the flop for 14 sb.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks. UTG checks. UTG+1 checks. MP checks. LP checks. CO checks. I check. 7 of us to the turn for 7 bb.

Turn: 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets. UTG calls. UTG+1 folds. MP folds. LP calls. CO folds. I call. 4 of us to the river for 11 bb.

River: 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB bets. UTG folds. LP calls. I raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fish.

[Super Pro]

do you have some sort of personal vendetta against me? first of all the raise is stupid because he has 44 in a multiway pot. why cut down your own implied odds? the whole thing about how it ties other players to the pot doesn't have much merrit because the fisth will call anyways regardless of the pot size. limping >>>> raising.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 2/4

5 limpers to me. I raise on the button with 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB folds. BB calls. 5 limpers call. 7 of us to the flop for 14 sb.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks. UTG checks. UTG+1 checks. MP checks. LP checks. CO checks. I check. 7 of us to the turn for 7 bb.

Turn: 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets. UTG calls. UTG+1 folds. MP folds. LP calls. CO folds. I call. 4 of us to the river for 11 bb.

River: 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB bets. UTG folds. LP calls. I raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising pf for a free turn? I posted a thread about raising small pp's on the button a few weeks back, and was mostly rebuked with extreme prejudice, as allegedly it will kill my implied odds if I flop a set. Do you make that move often? Or is this purely a raise for set value, and if the turn comes for free as well, great?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

do you have some sort of personal vendetta against me?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, and you're insecure for thinking that. I'm the last person to attack anyone on here on a personal level, except for The-Matador (you aren't him, are you?) However, I think the confidence with which you are posting your (wrong) thoughts is worth commenting on. I do not in any way intend it to be condescending, but as two peers hashing out ideas in a direct way. Go back and read my reply to one of your posts in the post about raising the flop with bottom pair.

[ QUOTE ]
first of all the raise is stupid because he has 44 in a multiway pot. why cut down your own implied odds? the whole thing about how it ties other players to the pot doesn't have much merrit because the fisth will call anyways regardless of the pot size. limping >>>> raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, read the thread. I don't think you did. Then think. Then come back. Please. I'm being serious.

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]

Well if you raise and get 3 bet, your knocking out the other caller and calling the 3 bet yourself. Your risking 2 bets there b/c I dont think they will 3 bet w/anything less than a 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

then the question is no longer should you raise, but how often does bb have a 2. There is simply no reason to believe that BB has a two, at all. His bet on the turn is probably some sort of ace, and he will have A3-AT here alot more times than he has A2. He could have made his straight on the turn, but to give up a chance of two BB's because of A2 or 42 when there is no evidence that those hands are in play is weak-tight thinking. Personally, i would be more worried about LP having a 2 and going for an overcall, but i could laydown to a 3-bet there, and i dont think it happens very often.

[ QUOTE ]
I also dont know how often both will simply call your raise given that you've come alive on the river and there is a 4 strait on the board. If they don't have the 2 they may think it likely you do and toss their hand. No one has shown significant strenth in the hand and there is no reason to expect they will call the raise just for the hell of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of your opposition at the 2/4 level, and in most small stakes, does not suffer from an affliction of laying down hands on the river for one bet. Also, given that fish daddy's hand is pretty well disguised, combined with his fishy play, means i think you get at least one call. Besides, its irrelevant if they fold. Given that you are best here almost 100% of the time, it is a raise that only has the potential to gain you money.

peace

john nickle

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
do you have some sort of personal vendetta against me? first of all the raise is stupid because he has 44 in a multiway pot. why cut down your own implied odds? the whole thing about how it ties other players to the pot doesn't have much merrit because the fisth will call anyways regardless of the pot size. limping >>>> raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a personal vendetta against stupidity, and you sir have displayed some fine stupidity in this thread.

peace

john nickle

[surfdoc]

Hi Chris,

This is a very interesting question and I am not sure of the answer. The Party 15 game is sooo much different and more aggressive. What I see is that the aggression level goes way up in big multiway pots and this hand is difficult to play if you don't flop your set. Getting to see the turn for free happens like about never and it is commonplace to have a bet and a raise in front of you as part of the Party 15 "fuk the preflop raiser" game. Do you think that raising here from the button should be standard in the 15 game?

[RustedCorpse]

[ QUOTE ]
chrisdaddy

Im Wrong i missed the gut shot you should call the turn everytime. OOPS. Ice

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
do you have some sort of personal vendetta against me? first of all the raise is stupid because he has 44 in a multiway pot. why cut down your own implied odds? the whole thing about how it ties other players to the pot doesn't have much merrit because the fisth will call anyways regardless of the pot size. limping >>>> raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just gotta say I love when a thread from eon's ago gets bumped, and then someone with 80 posts goes to correct chris daddy's play.

It makes me ROFL LOLOLOLOLOLOL OMfG LOLOL ok TTYL.
And other expressions of a similar nature.

Re-read the thread kids, think about the arguments then think some more.

[LinusKS]

I've been thinking about this hand, and trying to get a handle on it. I'd appreciate some feedback.

My initial reaction was that raising pf is bad, because 44 depends on implied odds, and you're killing your implied odds by raising.

I've put some more thought into it, and I realize it's more complicated than that. But I'm still not sure that it's right.

As I understand it, one of the arguments for the pf raise, is that - counting the free card on the turn - you've got + equity in the hand.

That equity, however, looks pretty small.

By my count - including the free card - you're about 5.5:1 to make your set. The Hero's getting 6:1 on his bet.

So that's a .5 sb edge.

However, that edge, small though it is, depends on:
1. All the limpers, plus the bb calling,
2. Everyone checking the flop to the raiser.

Sometimes those things won't happen. Plus, occasionally, something else will go wrong - you'll enable a limp-reraiser, for example (which could turn out to be particularly bad).

So it's not clear at all that equity considerations are enough to make a raise here.

Another argument is that you're not really hurting your implied odds that much.

I think there's some merit to that.

With this raise you're doing (at least) two things - you're increasing your chances of winning (since you'll get to see an extra card, at least some of the time), and you're increasing the amount you make when you do win.

If you start with the best case scenario (that you get to see the turn for free 100% of the time), you increase your chances of making your set from about 12% to about 15%. Your pf raise, meanwhile, increases the pot by 3 bb's.

If you thought your average profit when you limp pf was 12 bb's (for example), that would mean your profit with the pf raise was 15 bb's. So:

15 times (out of 100) your profit is 15*15, or 225.

Your cost is two sb's, or 100 bb's, for a total profit of 125.

When you limp, (assuming you never get to see the turn when you miss), your profit is 12 bb's, 12 times out of 100, or 144 bb's.

Your cost is 1 sb, or 50 bb's, for a total profit of 94 bb's.

Clearly in this example you're making more by getting those extra bets in pf, and then also getting your turn card for free.

Of course, you don't always get it, and I don't know how often you don't.

Another problem is that the pf raise presumably loses you bets on the flop. In other words, whatever keeps people from betting into you when you don't make your set on the flop, also prevents them from betting into you when you do.

Conversely, whenever they do bet into you, because you limped, those are extra bets you don't get when you raised.

I don't see a way around this problem, which means (to me) both the first and second number in the equation need to be adjusted.

How much is open to debate. But if you thought your net increase (when you won) was 1.5 bb's, rather than 3, and the pfr increased your set chances by 1.5%, rather than 3%, that would mean

13.5*13.5=182.25,

or a profit of 82.25 from raising, compared to 94 from limping in.

I don't know if any of this is right, but if it is, it still looks like raising pf is pretty marginal.

Are there other factors I'm not considering?