Was Varkoni's allin against Hellmuth a bad play?

[betgo]

The attitude of the TV coverage and some of the press, including Hellmuth's article was here was this crazy amateur going allin with QTs. However, I think it was a good play if you look at it in context.

This was the WSOP 2 years ago. Varkoni raises from the button with ATs. Hellmuth reraises from the BB with AK. Varkoni reraises allin.

A lot of people reraise the button from the BB with junk. Hellmuth is an aggressive player, but he is known to lay down big hands, and he doesn't like going allin. Even with the QT vs AK Varkoni was probably getting pot odds (considering the money already in the pot) that made up for how much of an underdog he was. QTs is probably going to be the underdog to any legitimate raising hand, but not a big underdog except to a big pair. Furthermore, it wasn't at all certain Hellmuth had a legitimate raising hand.

Varkoni probably had no desire to play the flop out of position against a world champion. By going allin he had a good chance to win the pot right there, and if he was called his expectation was not bad.

[sdplayerb]

Well, he wasn't out of position, he was on the button.
I can't remember the stack sizes, but I don't think he was getting odds..yet, only 3 hands gave him less than a 25-30% chance to win.
Most important is who he was up against..Hellmuth. I think it was a good play against him since he is likely to RR against a button raiser and there is about five hands he'll even consider calling with, AA-JJ and AK, and JJ and AK aren't even automatic.
Hellmuth has said he almost laid it down but he read Varkonyi...which was a great read that he didn't have a PP.

Since then we've seen Phil laydown AK to a RRR to Leonidas who is known for being super loose aggressive, and Phil was even getting great odds on the call. Toto had AQ, and they both showed it driving Phil nuts.

So, personally, I didn't think it was that terrible a play as the group of hands Phil RR with is much much bigger than those he then calls with.

You also don't hear people saying bad things about Scotty Nguyen's RRR with 83 last year...he knew he had to laydown a hand that wasn't HUGE.

Oh, i don't have the balls to play that way.

From there people say Varkonyi got lucky. He did have AA twice in big hands. But I still believe the hand that really put him in the position was when John Shipley called his RRR allin with AJ and said "I have nothing". Shipley had an incredible shot at winning it all that year.

[betgo]

I think Shipley had A7 versus Varkoni's KK, unless we are talking about different hands.

[sdplayerb]

I don't know what hand are you speaking of. Maybe the JJ vs AJ didn't know Shipley out, but it moved him from being a huge stack to short then.

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what hand are you speaking of. Maybe the JJ vs AJ didn't know Shipley out, but it moved him from being a huge stack to short then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was a battle of the blinds wasn't it?

Shipley re-raises from BB, Varykoni moves in & Shipley calls for most of his stack.

Couldn't understand the call myself, as I recall he wasn't committed and would still have a very playable stack if he laid it down.

[Toro]

It all depends on intent. If it was Varkoni's intent to re-raise all-in as a bluff representing a big pair then the play has merit. But if it was a let's gamble it up play, then it was horrible.

Of course, from Hellmuth's perspective, Varkoni's intent is irrelevant unless he has a read or can pick up a tell. So even if Varkoni's intent was to just gamble it up, there was still had a resonable chance of Hellmuth folding.

[betgo]

I am sure the intent was as a semibluff. Varkoni didn't win the tournament playing let's gamble it up like the people on the $5 SNGs.

The TV made it like it was an amateur play, and Hellmuth of course threw a big fit talking about what a terrible play it was.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sure the intent was as a semibluff. Varkoni didn't win the tournament playing let's gamble it up like the people on the $5 SNGs.

The TV made it like it was an amateur play, and Hellmuth of course threw a big fit talking about what a terrible play it was.

[/ QUOTE ]

Semibluff? How can this be construed as a semi-bluff? Pre-flop, it can only be categorized as an out and out bluff!

[sdplayerb]

i think varkonyi was on the button, but you may be right.
i thought the most interesting was that shipley even knew it was a bad play saying he had nothing.
and yep, he was nowhere near committed. it was too bad as he and gardner were the two best players, so would have made for better poker the rest of the way.

[betgo]

I consider a preflop allin bluff with a decent hand a semibluff. He had a good chance of winning the hand if called. Moneymaker's allin bluff of Farha on the river was a pure bluff.

[Toro]

Probably just semantics and of no real consequence but I think you're misusing the term.

[lastchance]

I think it's a semibluff. As long as Hellmuth doesn't have TT-AA or a dominating hand, Varkonyi has a lot of good outs. It's different from a semibluff on the flop, but the percentages work out to be the same. Varknoyi wins by either improving to the best hand or by making Hellmuth fold.

Either way, I like Varkonyi's play, because Phil Hellmuth is very willing to lay AK down to a reraise all in. I'd say Phil folds to that reraise 60%+ of the time, and if he does, I think Varkonyi makes the right play.

[J.R.]

Its clearly a semibluff, because, as opposed to a bluff, there are 2 ways to win. Your opponent folds or you make the best hand.

[Toro]

Then would you also say that re-raising all-in with 78s is a semi-bluff too? And if not, why?

[Stoneii]

does that mean that any raise with any two cards (e.g. 72o) is a semi bluff? There are still 2-ways to win, opponent folding or you hitting 7's and/or 2's.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
I consider a preflop allin bluff with a decent hand a semibluff. He had a good chance of winning the hand if called. Moneymaker's allin bluff of Farha on the river was a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty bored tonight and not having much better to do, just re-read your post and with your indulgence would like to nit pick it some more. Do you really consider QT a decent hand?

[betgo]

QTs is a raising hand from the button when no one has acted. It also plays pretty well allin. There are not that many hands it is a substantial underdog to.

In other situations, it is a good hand with deep money or multiway action.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
QTs is a raising hand from the button when no one has acted. It also plays pretty well allin. There are not that many hands it is a substantial underdog to.

In other situations, it is a good hand with deep money or multiway action.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KT, QJ: You're right, I can only count eleven where you are a substantial underdog. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[TheJackal]

[ QUOTE ]
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KT, QJ: You're right, I can only count eleven where you are a substantial underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]
LMAO, I think it was a bad play for all his chips. It just seemed to work out good for Varkonyi that hand. I don't like the play because if you are called you know you are behind. I dont see the value in it unless, like a lot of you have eluded to, Hellmuth folds immediately. Hellmuth having the 4th or 5th best starting hand in HE I don't think can lay it down (if I remember correctly Hellmuth was suited as was Varkonyi).

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KT, QJ: You're right, I can only count eleven where you are a substantial underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]
LMAO, I think it was a bad play for all his chips. It just seemed to work out good for Varkonyi that hand. I don't like the play because if you are called you know you are behind. I dont see the value in it unless, like a lot of you have eluded to, Hellmuth folds immediately. Hellmuth having the 4th or 5th best starting hand in HE I don't think can lay it down (if I remember correctly Hellmuth was suited as was Varkonyi).

[/ QUOTE ]

You know of course I was being sarcastic.

[betgo]

True, if he gets called, he will probably be up against one of those 11 hands. However, QTs has a 38% chance against AKs (different suits). He would have been a bigger underdog against a lot of those hands.

With the pot odds and the chances that Hellmuth would fold, I think it was a good gamble. Taking close to even or better gambles helps in winning a tournament with so many entries. I think that kind of style helped Varkoni get lucky and win the WSOP.