Unreasonable Expectations

[Johnny_Cash_Advance]

I have a friend who recently started playing 2/4 hold'em, because he was unhappy with the results he was getting at the 3/6 tables that we normally play. The past 3 or 4 times he has played he has won several hundred dollars a session, and is convinced that this is due to the poor play at these tables, and believes that this is a sustainable long-term winning level. I have attempted to explain to him that he must be on a lucky streak, because although the 2/4 tables are beatable, this kind of profit cannot be sustained in the long-run. Can I please get some confirmation on this fact, so that I can convince my friend that he is insane.

[mrjim]

Just wait it out.

[M2d]

assuming he's playing 6 hour sessions, and a "couple hundred dollars" means 200, your friend has a win rate of about 33 dollars an hour. since 15-30 pros strive for that holy grail of 1 BB an hour, they're also trying to make about 30 bucks an hour. If the games were so good at 2-4 that your friend, who can't win at 3-6, can sustain $33 an hour there, wouldn't a 15-30 pro be able to make more? for less downside? ask him why the 2-4 tables aren't full of pros.

[MicroBob]

i think that even against the very worst players you just aren't going to be able to do much better than 3BB/hr (about 5BB/100).

party 2/4 has generally weaker play than 3/6...but not to the extent that it is worth several BB/hr.

if you're friend thinks that he can routinely make 5BB/hr or more on each 2/4 table he plays then he will be in for a disappointment.

[bdk3clash]

Everyone's a cynic. Maybe he's that good. Either that, or he's running good. Who's to say in this topsy turvy world of ours?

[Johnny_Cash_Advance]

This isn't Party Poker, its live play, but I agree. We live next to Atlantic City. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MicroBob]

i'm pretty sure that most live 2/4 has really atrocious rake.

your friend has been running well.
at some point he will run not so well and you will be able to say 'i told you so'.

there is a very good chance that he won't listen to you even after he starts running bad and will just blame it on the cards.
there is a very good chance that your friend will never figure it out no matter what you do.