QQ vs. a 2+2er

[jacki]

This hand is against a 2+2er. He knows I'm a 2+2er, because I sent him a pm last night introducing myself after playing at his table.
He also has seen me playing for the last 30-40 minutes, so if he's paying attention, he knows I have decent raising/3betting standards.
Anyways, against a standard player, my play is fairly standard.
But against somebody who is solid, should I lay this down at some point, *knowing* that I am beaten?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Jacki is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG <font color="purple">(2+2er)</font> raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Jacki 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG <font color="purple">(2+2er)</font> caps</font>, Jacki calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">2+2er bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Jacki raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">2+2er 3-bets</font>, Jacki calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">2+2er bets</font>, Jacki calls.

River: (9.66 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">2+2er bets</font>, Jacki calls.

Final Pot: 11.66 BB

[Nottom]

I don't know if I'm folding, but I'm probably just going to call him down.

[Tosh]

I lay it down on the turn.

[MarkD]

No you can't lay it.

Against a 2+2'er I would have simply called down without raising the flop though. Don't give him an opportunity to slow down with JJ, AK or AQ. If he checks at some point you can bet.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

Against a 2+2'er I would have simply called down without raising the flop though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats my play too, but as Jacki raised the flop, got 3 bet and bet into on the turn he is surely dead to 2 outs.

[JDErickson]

hmm. What would a decent 2+2er cap PF vs another 2+2er?

QQ-AA Maybe JJ
AKs, maybe AQs or AKo.

So you are ahead of 3 "maybe hands" and behind 3 "probable" hands. I think QQ can be discounted due to rarity.

I had an exact hand like this last night against a solid player. I had KK and I capped PF and 3 bet the rag flop. He called me down also and my hand was good. So I'm thinking he had to have QQ.

If hes the type of player that wouldn't cap with JJ, AKo etc then I think you can fold the turn. But if there is any doubt I think you should call it down. AKs is a definate possibilty also.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats my play too, but as Jacki raised the flop, got 3 bet and bet into on the turn he is surely dead to 2 outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I actually estimate Jacki's chances to be around
12-7 that he is behind on the flop or turn (with one split) but on the river my estimate changes to 100%.

After 2+2'er 3-bets the flop I put him on this range of hands:
A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif
A/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif (Less likely because of the pre-flop cap but still remotely possible)
AA (6)
KK (6)
QQ (1)
JJ (6)

The river card is brutal. In actual play, if I took Jacki's line on the flop, I would have called the turn due to pot odds and the chance I was ahead then on the river I would ahve called again because it's just one bet. In cold analysis calling the river would be wrong given Jacki's line and my above analysis, but at the table I probably do call the river if I call on the turn.

[MarkD]

The funny thing is that even though it looks like a call down on the turn after that exact river card appears Jacki has to be beat almost 100% of the time. 2+2'er is either out of line or he has Jacki beat on the river in this hand.

[Tosh]

I would discount AQs and only count JJ as a medium possibility in your analysis. On the river he is totally screwed and now cannot beat anything.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
I would discount AQs and only count JJ as a medium possibility in your analysis. On the river he is totally screwed and now cannot beat anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I absolutely agree with this. Both hands should be derated.

Folding the turn is probably a minor mistake at worst if we actually do the EV analysis assuming Bayseian distribution. Hero loses for sure with that river card though. I only say that I would call because at the tables I probably would, even though I think it's wrong, and is a clear fold. It's definitely a leak of mine that I would call in this spot on the river - glad this situation happens rarely. Calling the river is worse than folding the turn.

[bisonbison]

This 2+2er was me.

[MarkD]

Now I agree with Tosh and think he should have folded the turn. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jacki]

Thanks for all the replies.
I've recently moved up into 3-6 land, and as fishy as the fishies are, there are actually good players at the table, which I haven't really gotten used to yet...

Your analysis of his holdings are spot on.
After his flop 3-bet, I think I decided to call it down...this I think shows my inexperience, because I didn't really take into account that the river card killed me. So, in retrospect, I think I should have folded the river, maybe even the turn.


<font color="blue"> RESULTS BELOW: </font>
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Bison showed KK for the win.
After I call the flop 3-bet, he's got to put me on QQ or JJ, and with the way he bet the turn and river, I knew that he knew what my hand was, and he wasn't scared of it, yet another reason for me to fold.

[nepenthe]

Flop: I play the same.
Turn: I instaraise and consider that the last bet going into this hand.

[sublime]

I would call/call/call

This is right out of HEFAP.

[Trix]

Call, call, call.......Play it HFAP style, then you wont get to think about this stuff.

IF you raise the flop, then you gotta know if you can lay down or not, else it doesn´t gain you much.

You can also call the flop and raise the turn, but again, you gotta know if you can lay down or not.

[nepenthe]

Actually, I might just call the flop as well. The turn play remains, however.

[MarkD]

I'm not sure if you are serious about your plays or not, but if you are, try and convince me why your proposed line is better than call, call, call(bet if checked to).

[nepenthe]

The guy is a 2+2er, and I am going on the presumption that he is the kind of seasoned 2+2er to be aware of default plays against other 2+2ers. 2+2ers are also more capable of good laydowns than your average run-of-the-mill fish. Therefore, you need to make a play that a normal 2+2er probably would not expect from another 2+2er given the hand he is playing.

Basically, the turn raise is your only chance, however impossibly minuscule, to win the hand. Another QQ might lay it down right there against another 2+2er. You're probably hopeless against KK and above. TT will reraise you. If a 2+2er 3-bets you after you have shown this much aggression, then your QQ is absolutely no good (unless your opponent is employing a 3rd-level thinking employing the possibility outlined here, which is very very unlikely at the limit you are playing) and you can lay it down with a clear conscience. More likely, though, all better hands will likely just call. And a 2+2er is unlikely to take a part in the fishy stop-and-go routine either, unless the river improves his hand. You check behind on the river sans improvement, having spent the same BB as you would have if you just went call/call/call.

Basically, with the calldown routine, you give your 2+2er no opportunity whatsoever to lay down a better hand. With my routine, there is a minuscule chance of this, even if it is 0.0000000001th of 1 percent.

You cannot make default, predictable plays against a thinking and aware 2+2er and expect to win against him in the long-run. Make him think harder. Make him second-guess his hand. Especially if doing so comes at no extra cost (in terms of BB) to you, and no burden to your conscience if you're reraised on the turn.

[JohnShaft]

I like the fact you are thinking of making a play like this on the Turn, and with some reasoning.

But where I think you are going wrong is estimating that this has some value because our opponent might have, and might LAY DOWN, the other QQ.
The chances of him having the case QQ are very, very slim. The chances he will lay it down are Slim, more likely because he knows we may pull this move with a hand like JJ.
Even if we pull it off we win only half of the pot.

You might make a case that if we are gaining a miniscule amount, and aren't losing it then we profit.
But by doing this move we are theoretically giving up profit.
Consider those occassions when we get 3-bet by AA/KK/TT, and fold to the Turn Raise, when we would have spiked a Queen.
That alone will happen 1 in 22 times.