What's a "reasonable" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?

[QuadsOverQuads]

Yeah yeah, I know ... ridiculously broad question. But still ...

Today alone, I've had two runs of 300-400 hands running at a 2% win-rate (playing 2 tables @ $1/$2). This doesn't strike me as unusual, cold streaks happen, but I mentioned it to another player and he expressed "shock" at such a low-percentage run. Anyway, it seems that the more I work on my play, the more I find myself wondering just where that line between "normal" and "playing too tight" really is, in terms of overall win-rate (assuming competent preflop play), especially on loose games like party 1/2.

In thinking about this, I know that if we just draw it out on every hand, I should win about 10% on a 10-handed table. Of course, that number includes hands that a competent player would toss preflop, plus others that wouldn't be worth calling to the river, so it seems to me that the number should actually be somewhere below 10%. How much below, I can't say. OTOH, a good player should also be able to use steals and other strategic plays to gain wins where just drawing it out would not get one, so there's an offset the other way, too.

In my own experience, if I'm playing well and getting a reasonable card-distribution, I typically run between 8% and 11% (seeing 17-21% of flops, winning maybe 30% when I do). I think I'm playing reasonably well (or maybe a little tight?), but I'm really curious how this compares to others' experiences here. Do you think this is high? Low? About right? I know it's a very broad question, but any feedback would be greatly appreciated, as I'm still struggling a bit to find the zone at these loose low-limit tables.

[Evan]

FWIW, from 900 hands in Poker Tracker I've seen 19.66% of all flops and won money 36.42% when seeing a flop. So I've won money 7.2% of all hands dealt to me. I've never really heard anyone reference this stat and I don't think it's that important. Numbers like VP$IP, PFR and Won $ at SD are much more important I think. If you want to improve your game, focus on those and everythign else will fall into place.

[SuitedDucks]

As evan said, i think youre focusing on the wrong stats. VP$IP, PFR and money won at showdown definiteily should have more importance. Also, 300-400 hands is an incredibly small sample and wont really tell you anything wortwhile.

As for your friend who is appalled by a losing streak of 300-400 hands, I'm guessing he hasnt played much limit?

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
... especially on loose games like party 1/2.


[/ QUOTE ]

Party 1/2 isn't that loose, compared to .5/1 or 2/4.

As far as win rate, your only concern should be BB/100, not % of hands won.

I only win around 6% of my hands at all levels. But my BB/100 at 1/2 right now is about 3.2, which I've been told is very good.

Not sure how much higher is sustainable (over the long term... like 50K hands) at that level... maybe 4 BB/100 if you do a really good job selecting loose passive tables.

I wouldn't recommend spending the "long-term" at 1/2, when 2/4 is much juicier. More players to the flop; less pre-flop raising in my experience.

1/2 is good practice, but you should aspire to 2/4, IMO.

[sthief09]

if your goal is to win a lot of hands, then just stop folding.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
if your goal is to win a lot of hands, then just stop folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty funny. not very nice, but funny enough that it's worth it.

[RED_RAIN]

You won't win 8%-11% of the hands in the long run. More like 5-7% with very little variance on this number in the long run.

These types of posts are very meatless.

Post some hands, going through 300-400 hands of a bad streak of cards doesn't mean anything. Try going through 2500-5000 which can happen.

So to recap, post hands where you think your play was either great, bad, or questionable.

Don't look at stats much, as they mean little until you have around 30k or above (there are a few stats that poke their head up around 10k).

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Try going through 2500-5000 which can happen.


[/ QUOTE ]

11K and counting .... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
11K and counting ....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I forget how many my friend (played tons) either had 10k or 15k of bad cards or just bad turn/river jobs. Hard to stay in there mentally. But you got the skills and abilities. Stick in there!

[arkady]

play about 500 more hands and then come back for a serious analysis.

[woty87]

I'm just curious because I play mostly on Party $1/$2.

Is Party $2/$4 really looser than $1/$2? Can anyone else validate this? I've been playing $1/$2 because I thought it would be a good place to fine tune my SSH game. But I'm really not constrained by my bankroll, so should I play $2/$4 instead? I've been running about 3BB/100hands for 3000 hands at $1/$2.

Thanks.

[RED_RAIN]

2/4 is as loose or looser than 1/2...2/4 is much more aggressive post flop

No bankroll issues, go to 2/4. 1/2 is not the play to learn IMO

[bisonbison]

play about 500 more hands and then come back for a serious analysis.

This is gonna be my new line.

[bdk3clash]

if your goal is to win a lot of hands, then just stop folding.

At the card barn I play at in NYC, they did a promotion where for every pot you won you got a ticket, and once you had 100 tickets you qualified for a freeroll tournament for a plasma TV or something.

Anyway, it was really interesting to see the loose/bad/losing players with a mountain of tickets in front of them. They'd be stacking their little tickets and yelling "chips!" at the same time. It was like a physical manifestation of the concept that bad players win way more pots than good players, but still end up losing money.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:

Try going through 2500-5000 which can happen.




11K and counting ....


[/ QUOTE ]

15k hands this month and in the red for the first time. not fun.

[woty87]

Thanks, Red Rain. I think I'll give $2/$4 a try.

[AviD]

bot haxx0r FUITF!

[MAxx]

how many tables you playing at a time on avg?

[SomethingClever]

Here's a hand I played at 2/4 today. Never seen play like this at 1/2. Also my first $100 pot, incidentally /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (16.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (21.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 25.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 25.75 BB, between UTG+1, Hero, MP3 and BB.</font>

[bdk3clash]

BB had AK or TT-88 maybe?

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
BB had AK or TT-88 maybe?

[/ QUOTE ]

When he didn't 3-bet me on the flop and just checked the turn, I figured TT.

Oh, he only had AA!

Outplayed!

[StellarWind]

The total win percentage is an interesting statistic. I suspect it provides some insight into whether a player is running well or badly. If you have a good BB/100 rate over a few thousand hands but your win rate is high that is some indication that you may have been more lucky that good.

LAGs win the most pots and tight/passives win the fewest. Any tight player should expect to be well below average. Note that average is not 10% because 1) PT doesn't handle splits correctly (partial or side pot = whole win) and 2) my average Party hand has only about nine active players.

Win rate does not compare well between different good players. Most of a player's winnings come from the core hands that "everyone" plays. Beyond that there are a lot of slightly +EV/neutral/slightly -EV hands that some people play. The more of those you play the higher your win rate but profits are not significantly affected. Also some players (like me) tend to avoid tables with a few empty seats while others enjoy them or even seek them out. This greatly improves their win rate.

Another use of win rate is comparing games. One way I can tell that Paradise is tougher than Party is because my win rate is higher at Paradise. Yes, that does make perfect sense if you think about it /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB had AK or TT-88 maybe?

[/ QUOTE ]

When he didn't 3-bet me on the flop and just checked the turn, I figured TT.

Oh, he only had AA!

Outplayed!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, like you would have folded at any point in that hand.

[SomethingClever]

No, but if I were him, I'd take a different approach starting on the flop. I'd either...

A) 3-bet and lead the turn.
B) Call and check/raise the turn.

There's just no good reason for him to start calling down yet after I raised his flop bet. He's seeing monsters under the bed.

[surfdoc]

3-4 tables usually.

[MicroBob]

i'm usually a little over 7%...


when im at 4-5% i've been running really bad. when i'm at 10-12% that means the cards have been pretty gush-darn good.


i've had a couple of 0-2% streaks in there too.

[Richard Berg]

[ QUOTE ]
At the card barn I play at in NYC, they did a promotion where for every pot you won you got a ticket, and once you had 100 tickets you qualified for a freeroll tournament for a plasma TV or something.

Anyway, it was really interesting to see the loose/bad/losing players with a mountain of tickets in front of them. They'd be stacking their little tickets and yelling "chips!" at the same time. It was like a physical manifestation of the concept that bad players win way more pots than good players, but still end up losing money.

[/ QUOTE ]
14th St.? Gypsies?

[bdk3clash]

Yup.

[QuadsOverQuads]

Thanks, this is very much the kind of info I was looking for. I'm looking at this basically as an indicator of "running good" vs. "running bad" (as opposed to anything more significant), but I've been finding myself more and more unsure of my basic reference points, and wondering if rather than "running bad" I'm simply playing too tight for the situation. From the responses I'm seeing here, it looks like my overall experience is pretty consistent with what should be expected, which helps put my mind at ease.

I also appreciate the responses about 1/2 vs. 2/4. I actually prefer to play at larger limits (up to about 10/20, with the occasional 15/30 session), but my bankroll is WAY down this year (due to a nasty non-poker-related situation), so I'm stuck playing lower limits for now (I am working to build up a bankroll, but I'm literally playing to pay my bills right now, so the outflow makes it tough). I figured they'd be easier games, and they are, but the adjustments (not to mention the "playing for my rent" situation) are clearly messing with my head a bit.

[MicroBob]

9% with any consistency strikes me as really high.