Trips on the flop, would you fold?

[EnderW27]

I have one general question and then one specific question.

I'm in one of those amateur games they have weekly at the bar. It's a free entry thing with only the first place person taking home a prize (and an entry into a larger tournament). There are some truly awful players there, but the blinds go up so quickly, it eventually comes down to luck. I mean, they have two tournaments a night and they need to wittle 80 people down to 1 in 3 hours or less.

I play for fun with my friends. I drink beer and have pizza. So, truly, of all the poker skills I could learn, this is one of the lowest on my list. But, nevertheless, what's a good general strategy for a tournament with such a huge luck factor built in?

Second question, from a specific situation that came up last night.
Let's say you're playing with a woman you have a total read on as non-tricky. She doesn't check raise, bets when she has something good, calls with a draw, folds with nothing.

You have A5o on the button. Six people in the pot with blinds at 50-100. Flop comes down AA6, two clubs. She bets 300 into you. You are almost 100% sure she has the other Ace.

Would you fold this?

[JessiBird]

This is a tricky situation. When playing a low limit game or tournament with players as you have described I try to remember that any ace with any any other kicker in any position is a possibility. I would suggest a raise in this situation. If you are re-raised, run away. If you are called, assume another ace is out but you will likely be checked-to for the remainder of the hand. At the least, you have put doubt into the other players mind and may be able to steal the pot with a bet ont he river. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Potowame]

If all is as you say about this player, I would fold. Look at it this way.

Hands that she would bet that beat you.

AK,AQ,AJ,A10,A9,A8,A7,A6,66

Hands that you would split or win

A5,A4,A3,A2

so if your 90% sure she has an ace its pretty safe to say that most of the time you are way behind here.

[fnurt]

I have found that a lot of bad amateurs will bet 2 pair strongly (e.g. 76) in this situation thinking that it is a good hand. If you're sure she wouldn't do this, though, of course you should fold.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I have found that a lot of bad amateurs will bet 2 pair strongly (e.g. 76) in this situation thinking that it is a good hand. If you're sure she wouldn't do this, though, of course you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I second that.
In some of the bad home games I play in, I will see a weirdly played hand and someone will say "I had to play that, I flopped two pair, aces and sevens" on a AA5 board and they have 77. They think it's as strong as having A7 on a A73 board.

[gergery]

Fold. If it was AAK then I might consider calling to see the turn, as your chances of splitting the pot go up significantly (ie. you both end up with AAAKx when x is higher than either of your kickers and neither kicker plays). Then it depends on your read of her kicker, and folding is still a good option.

--Greg

[EnderW27]

I thought about raising, but figured I wasn't going to get any useful information out of her. I was almost certain she had an ace and if she reraised where would that leave me? Definitely almost certain? 99.44% certain? I'd have still lost a lot of chips folding in that situation after she came back over the top. I also knew that once she started betting, her hand was good enough that I'd NEVER get her to fold no matter how I played it.

But raising to try to nab a card on the turn and showing down the hand as cheaply as possible is something I didn't consider. Something to keep in mind for next time.


So...against my better judgment, I called the 300.
Turn comes the 3c. She bets 500. I call, figuring that if I'm in, I'm in, and I might as well call it down.

River comes a fourth club (I have none). Suddenly trips don't look so good. I can tell she's a little hesitant, but she bets 500 (which is a complete underbet of the pot). Who here moves in to try to push a better ace kicker off?
I considered it, then figured she probably would be too curious to know what I had to fold her trips anyway. So I make a crying call...which is a bit of a misnomer I suppose. The flop was a crying call, the turn was a sobbing call, and by the river we've gone straight into wail mode.

I'll tell you, I've never been happier in my life to see A5, no club, split pot tabled.
So I picked up a few hundred in chips off the hand from the folds on the flop.

Damn I play good. If by good, I mean I completely ignore my read, buck the odds, and risk half my stack as I go into passive ass mode through three betting phases.

[DonT77]

I wouldn't fold here. Too many weak players will see the AA on the board and play it as 2 pair with their 6 or their own PP. Additionally, too many weak players play Ax - so you are only behind AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A7, and A6 out of all of those possible holdings. Not to mention that this tourney only pays one winner - so you should be a little more willing to gamboool.

[fatduck]

Definitely agree. What's the biggest mistake an amateur player makes on a flop like AA9?

The first assumption they make is "yea right nobody has the ace" and they fastplay their pair of 9s because they don't want to be scared off by overcards on the turn/river.

[ScottC]

Back to the general question...
[ QUOTE ]
But, nevertheless, what's a good general strategy for a tournament with such a huge luck factor built in?

[/ QUOTE ]
How about...
All in pre-flop with AA-TT, AK - AJ.
All in on the flop with any two pair or set, and any leftover over pairs that are either non-flush/straight draws or you have a piece of the draw action. (Ex. 88, flop comes 567, move in. 234 don't move in.)