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View Full Version : Bubble play - another push or fold inquiry


Gramps
08-24-2004, 01:32 AM
I've been making a conscious effort the last couple of days to err on the side of being too aggressive on the bubble in an effort to build up the stack - went through a dry stretch (25 money finishes without a single first place - it was UGLY) that playing too conservatively on the bubble was partially to blame for (IMO anyway, since I was often super-short stacked when it got down to 3 players).

BB is probably going to call here - even with a lot of hands I'm a favorite against (and may even fold some junky hands)...but I'm not so sure the benefits of pushing outweigh the risks. For what it's worth, I haven't taken note of any loose calls from the big stack button or SB (from what I've noticed during my multi-tabling).

If I push, only BB calls and I lose, then there's 3 of us right around 1500 chips. If I push, BB calls, and I win, then I'm up to about 2850 in chips (or 2500 if everyone folds).

Push or fold? Is pushing just WAY too reckless here? Or is it at least a close decision (or is it clearly the right decision)?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

Hero (t2085)
Button (t5735)
SB (t1550)
BB (t630) (300 committed to BB, 330 more to go all-in)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with QsJs, Hero...?

adanthar
08-24-2004, 02:23 AM
There is *no way* I push here. You're going to get called by FAR better hands a good chunk of the time, and whatever BB has is not going to be a big dog/may be a favorite.

This is a marginal hand in this position/with this chip stack, even if it's too good to fold. I'd raise this to about 700-800 and be prepared to toss it if anyone came over the top.

SmileyEH
08-24-2004, 02:37 AM
How could you fold after raising to 800? You would be getting over 2-1 from the pot.

-SmileyEH

adanthar
08-24-2004, 03:36 AM
Take the chance of having a dominated hand, then factor in that the reraiser knows that he will be up against an all in (quite possibly 2) and is still reraising.

Almost any hand that reraises you will also call an all in, and *every single one* of those hands is a favorite over you. Given the short stack's position, this is not a time you want to play QJs for 2,000 chips, pot odds be damned.