Validation ... please

[DiceyPlay]

I almost know that I played most of this hand right. But being a relatively new player, I would like to get some validation.

The game is 6/12. The table is semi-loose and not aggressive but once every 2 or 3 three hands someone is raising btf. I've been at the table for about 4 hours. utg+1 has been there about an hour. I've seen him raise once and he showed KK for the winner. I'm in the co with 8h7h. utg folds. utg+1 calls. Everyone between utg+1 and me calls. I'm not alert enough to have a read on button or the blinds to tell if they might raise. I call. Button raises. sb folds. BB calls. Now utg+1 re-raises and everyone calls to me. I know that a limp re-raise normally means AA or KK. But I also know that utg+1 has been sitting at the table for an hour. He coulnd't have been expecting someone to raise, could he?? So, I'm not sure he has to have one of the two hands above. And beyond that there's already 15.5 sBets in the pot. I call and both the button and BB call. 19.5 sBets in the pot and the flop is 2h4s9c. BB checks, utg+1 bets and everyone calls to me. There's 23.5 sBets in the pot and I have a backdoor flush and a backdoor straight. I call. Button and BB call. 26.5 sBets in pot and the turn is a 7c. Again utg+1 bets. Now it's folded to me there's ~14 bBets in the pot. I have 5 cards to make 2-pair or trips - about 8 to 1. I call. Button thinks a while and calls. BB calls. 17 bBets in the pot and the river is 8s. Board is 25978. BB checks, utg+1 bets. I raise. Button and BB fold. utg+1 calls. I say two pair and drag a monster 21 bBet pot. utg+1 turns over AA. The guy next to me starts telling me how lucky I am. I admit the cards came, but I thought I had the odds to call at every step of the way. utg+1 should have raised btf knocking out some of the players between he and I and I would have folded btf.

What do you guys think?

[Mike Gallo]

Preflop, I dont like the call but I can understand it.

Post flop, your chasing. Give it up.

[DiceyPlay]

With 23.5 bets in the pot you don't think I should call one bet to see if I can pick up draw? How can that be right? True I wasn't closing the betting and button or BB could have raised, but I need to runner runner less then 4% of the time to show a profit here. Could you elaborate on why this isn't a worth while chase?

[tree_stump]

You just can't chase that with nothing... I've learned from experience - trying to use math to justify losing draws is a great way to waste a bankroll.

If you call to catch your draw (which you have about a 7% chance to catch), you then have trapped yourself into calling to catch your card (with another 7%) - so, you're giving up at least 1.5 BB on a 0.6% draw... You sure those are good odds?

[Mike Gallo]

Could you elaborate on why this isn't a worth while chase?

Do you really want mw to answer this?

[DiceyPlay]

YES! Say something quantitative, not subjective. Say something that makes sense. Don't just tell me what you think. Say something like this -

I win if the turn and river come TJ, JT, 56, 65, HH, 78, 87, 77, 88 and the proabilities of the cards coming as such are .0074, .0074, .0074, .0074, .0416, .0042, .0042, .0028, .0028, respectively. And the sum of those is ~.08. So, I have an 8% chance of improving to the best hand (assuming when I make my hand, it's best). When the betting gets to me after the flop, there's 25.5 bets in the pot. It would be a mathematical catastrophe to not call.

Give me some analysis. What's seems so blatantly obvious to you, from the analysis above, is obviously wrong.

[DiceyPlay]

Use math to identify a draw as not a loser. You don't use math to justify a losing draw. With all draws the odds are stacked against you, it's the pot odds that can swing the tide. Math is math - you can't argue with it. This part of the game is quite simple. The math isn't always simple and getting the calcuations correct on the spot isn't always simple. But the concept is extremely simple. I don't know where you got 7% and 7%?? And 7% of 7% is less then .5% not equal .6%.

[tree_stump]

Because you can't figure the odds that way... I could be completely wrong, but here's the way I see it - you have to discount your flush outs because even when you make the flush you're going to lose a percentage of the time.

To hit the runner runner straight, you have to hit exactly one card, followed by exactly one other card.

The most favorable way to look at this for you (and most certainly not correct) is this - you have 6 different cards you can hit to catch a draw. You have an 8 in your hand, so that gives 23 outs (which you don't have - probably more like 16, but I'll give your backdoor flush some credit). So, you have a 23/47 (49%) chance of hitting the draw.

Once you hit your draw, you have to catch one card - you're down to a 4 outer... on the turn. So you have a 4/46 chance to hit your hand (8.7%).

Which gives you a (23*4) / (47*46) = 92/2162 = 4.3% chance to hit your card after the flop. So yes, you need 23.25-1 to hit and you have 25.5-1... but what happens if you catch the draw and the turn is raised? You do still have odds, I guess, but just barely. So, 23 times you lose (at best) 1.5 BB.

You're playing 6-12. You can expect to lose $414 before you finally hit this draw. And you're actually going to lose more than that - what if you hit and someone hits a better hand? Or if the flop is raised, forcing you to fold, and that's the 1 in 23 that you hit?

I think you realistically hit this maybe 1 in 50 in normal play. That's why it's not a good play. But that's because math can't take into account the play of others.

[JTG51]

You played it fine.

[W. Deranged]

I think that your play was actually fine here. Think of it like this:

28 out of 47 times you will pick up some kind of draw (a heart, a J or 5 for a gutshot, a 6 or 10 for an open-ended, or a 7 or 8). On average, you are going to have somewhere in the 7 out range. (Anywhere from 15 if you pick up a straight-flush card to 4 or 5 if you pair or pick up a gutshot). So, when you pick up your draw, you will hit about 7 out of 45 times. So, you EV is (projecting the final pot to be about 19 big bets, assuming you'll raise on the end and get called by UTG+1 but not the other two):

-1sb* odds not picking up draw - 1.5 bb * times odds up draw and missing + pot size* odds hitting draw:

(-.5)(19/47) + (-1.5)(28/47)(39/46) + (28/47)(7/46)19 =

-.2021 -.7576 + 1.722 = + . 7623

In other words, calling on the flop has a positive EV of about three-quarters of a big-bet.

[DiceyPlay]

Hi Stump,

I think you have to figure the odds the way I did. Because the odds are the odds. But you're right in that you have to make judgement calls as to how your opponents are going to play against (are they going to play nice or make your life miserable). Also, you're right that your hand may not be good when you hit. But those are the breaks. It's the same when you're in the BB with 52o and you flop trip 2's only to get beat by someone hold A2o. Sh*t happens.

Also, in your analysis, you assume I'm going to pay 1.5BB for the draw. If I don't draw to the draw (i.e. hit the draw on the turn card), I fold on that round of betting. So it only cost me .5BB not 1.5BB. I still think I had the odds to play the hand the way I did. The one think I'm not sure about was calling the double bet cold btf. I didn't know if the button was going to cap or not, but I as pot committed at that time ... so I called.

[Brain]

Here's what I think:
You need to call your high school English teacher and apologize to him or her for sleeping through the class on learning how to use paragraphs. I'm going to go get a Killian's and when I come back with it, maybe this blob of words will have a line break or two.

[MicroBob]

i think most of your logic is okay.

the part that concerns me is when you say you don't have a read to determine if button or blinds will raise PF.
it doesn't matter on your decision if they are going to raise or not...with that many players already in the pot you should call anyway. even if you were 100% certain the button was going to raise you can call here because you can expect all the EP and MP players to call right along.

you also can call here even based on your read of UTG+1.
his limp-reraise positively screams AA (or KK).
he didn't limp in with the expectation of getting a re-raise...he simply didn't want to scare other players away...but when it's raised back to him NOW he is comfortable raising.
so, your read here was partially correct....but i think you mis-read his intentions.
again, he limps because he is afraid of scaring everyone away....he does not limp because he thinks he can get in a PF-reraise.


but, again, with this many callers already in the pot, you should still stay in even if you KNOW he has AA.


i probably would have laid down on that flop (just out of instinct, and because i am usually multi-tabling online)....but i think your analysis of the backdoor draws is correct.
you can pay 1 more bet to see another card here.



finally - your lack of paragraphs made this hand VERY difficult to read. think of us poor little 2+2'ers trying to help you.
i almost gave up on trying to read this because it was so difficult.

[DiceyPlay]

Well I'll take that as constructive criticism and work on structuring my posts better.

[DiceyPlay]

.

[tipperdog]

Dicey,

With so many people in that pot, you can't be 100% confident that you'll win if the final two cards come heart-heart or TJ. It's quite possible someone is holding a higher heart draw or a better straight draw. This is especially true because the preflop action could have trapped marginal hands like Axh or KQ for multiple bets (just as the action trapped you!). I'm not saying those outs should be fully discounted, but certainly a mark-off is warranted.

Also (as you acknowledged in an earlier reply), your call doesn't close the flop betting round, and given the pre-flop action, it's quite possible the pot will be raised (and reraised) back to you. I would have reluctantly called pre-flop, but I would have mucked on the flop without reservation.

[DiceyPlay]

I agree with everything you said except for mucking the flop without reservation. With the lineup I was against, I think it was worth the call to see what could be. It was $6 and the pot was over $150 with 2 players left to act behind.

A raise behind me would have sucked, but I think utg+1 would have re-raised in that case and I would have mucked when it was 2 back to me with the raiser still to act.

I guess it's very player dependant. I think it's close either way.

Thanks for your excellent insightful input!

[mikeyvegas]

I think you played it fine. As voiced earlier, calling two more cold pf may be debated but with all of that money already in the pot I think the call is fine. On the flop, I think the call is fine with your immediate odds but my only concern would be that you are not closing the action and that you might get trapped again like you did pf. Turn and river played themselves. This thread kinda reminds me of this one (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=822904&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1) .

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Because you can't figure the odds that way... I could be completely wrong, but here's the way I see it - you have to discount your flush outs because even when you make the flush you're going to lose a percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're drawing to the absolute nuts, you're always going to lose a percentage of the time.

[MicroBob]

yes....the flush might be up against a higher flush. but this is often-times a possibility.

for now, it's easier to just assume that the flush is good if it hits.
anything you want to take away from the outs there can easily be made up by the possibility of extracting extra bets if/when it does hit.

any hand can be beaten....you can't sit there and go 'well, this is only .92 of an out and this is only .84 of an out'
for purposes of this calculation, it's okay to assume the flush-draw is fine.

this is very different than AK on a board of QJ8 for example.
here, if you hit an over-card you don't know if you are good because you can very realistically be up against a 2-pair or someone may have hit their straight (or may hit the straight on the river). thus, your A and K outs on this hand need to be discounted.
but your T outs are obviously the nuts.

[joker122]

I don't know how I feel about the flop call, but I think you should have raised the turn.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
finally - your lack of paragraphs made this hand VERY difficult to read. think of us poor little 2+2'ers trying to help you.
i almost gave up on trying to read this because it was so difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did give up on it a few days ago, but finally gathered the will to get through it today.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
finally - your lack of paragraphs made this hand VERY difficult to read. think of us poor little 2+2'ers trying to help you.
i almost gave up on trying to read this because it was so difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just so you know, I find it difficult to read text that lacks capitalization, for reasons I can explain if you wish.

[MicroBob]

IntEReStINg!!!

wILl trY To dO BeTTer iN THe fUtuRe.

[dfscott]

1 Wi$H j00 dO0DZ WOuLD $t0P TYpINg 1N 5UcH @ $+rAnG3 W@y. I+ M@ke$ I+ rE4llY H4RD phOR M3 +0 R34d.

[MicroBob]

wow. that's really weird.


I mean,
Wow. That is really weird.

[TheHip41]

All I can say is wow, nice catch /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

Pre flop, facing a button raise and re raise, I might fold here, but since you didn't, let's not dwell on that. 7h8h is as good as any hand vs. KK or AA

Flop: Bad call, no way around it. You can dress it up in pretty statistics and things like that, but it's just plain bad. yes you won this hand, on a runner runner 2 pair, but here's what you will learn, sometimes the Button, or the BB will have 99, or 44. You will make a runner runner 2 pair only to discover you were drawing dead. I can see this call on the flop if you had 2 hearts on the flop, or a gutshot straight draw AND a backdoor flush draw, but all you have is a double gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. And you have no way of knowing if the flush, if you make it, is the best one.

Just give it up, look for a better place to get your money in.

Derek

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: Bad call, no way around it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to defend the poster on this one. I wouldn't classify the flop call as bad, maybe thin, but not bad. If you count his backdoor outs (1.5 BD flush, 1.5 3 card str8) I beleive he has the odds to make this call getting 23:1.

Onto another point, why is everyone bringing up the point that even if he makes his flush/str8 he may not be good. Does that mean I shouldn't pump my 8c9c flush draw on a 3c6cJd board cause someone could be drawing to a K or A high flush. This is a terrible mindset to adopt, it's the type of thinking that caused me to play in a weak-tight mode for the first few months I was starting out.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
All I can say is wow, nice catch

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate this phrase. The guy paid his money and he hit his outs. This is poker, that's what happens. Each hand we make judgements on how much pot equity we have, sometimes we get paid for that pot equity and sometimes we don't.

[JTG51]

... but here's what you will learn, sometimes the Button, or the BB will have 99, or 44. You will make a runner runner 2 pair only to discover you were drawing dead.

And sometimes no one will have a pair and he'll be drawing to 6 outs to win on the flop.

I can see this call on the flop if you had 2 hearts on the flop, or a gutshot straight draw AND a backdoor flush draw

Does that mean you wouldn't call with just a gutshot? Are you serious?

The flop call was fine.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
but all you have is a double gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify:

a double gutshot straight draw is 4678T (two separate gutshots)

a backdoor straight draw is what the poster has: 987 (two cards are needed to complete the straight)

FWIW, the first preflop call is automatic. The second preflop call is fine. The flop call is thin, especially because you have a potentially big hand behind you; it may get raised and 3bet before it gets back to you, and you'd fold, having wasted a bet.

However, assuming all your outs are clean, you win approx 10% of the time here against AA. The only hands you have to worry about are: a bigger flush draw (unlikely), KQ (only slightly more likely), and something like 97 or 98 (a little more likely); so if you do manage to hit, you'll almost assuredly win

[DiceyPlay]

.