ATs 100-200 river problem

[mike l.]

not much to report except that sunday afternoon is a great time to be at commerce. here's a hand i played.

the game was 7 handed good game 1-2. i had AcTc utg and limped. folded to cutoff who is a fairly loose fairly aggressive winning regular. he raised. folded back to me and i 3 bet. he called.

the flop: JcTh3c. i bet, he called.

the turn is 4s. i bet, he called.

the river is Qh. will i make more here by betting, betting and folding to a raise, checking and calling, checkraising, betting and reraising, cehck-fold? what's my best play and why? is it close? did i play the rest of the hand well?

[rory]

Hi Mike,

I think you should bet the river and fold to a raise. I can envision two scenarios that might be going on. It all depends on whether or not you have pulled the limp-reraise from early position with mediocre hands and you know your opponent knows you are capable of limp reraising with non-premium hands.

1) Your opponent has seen you do this limp reraising on mediocre hands. He may have decided to just call you down with his 88 or 99 or whatever and you have a value bet on the river with AT.

2) Your opponent thinks your limp-reraise means a big hand like AA, KK or AK. In this case you have a clear bet because he may have been calling you down with top pair or something hoping you are betting AK. If this is the case he may fold a jack or whatever now that AK got there on the river.

I don't really think the Q helped him-- the sort of hands this guy would raise on the button that the Q would have helped would have been hands he would have thrown a raise on the flop hoping to get a free card since he is an aggressive player.

Either way, I think you should bet and fold to a raise.

[Garland]

Wow, nice problem.

I think folding is clearly wrong here, and you'd have to think what kind of hands he'd call, especially the turn. If he has a pair under, you'd hate for it to check behind, but if he has AK, AQ, AJ (probably not), KQ (wouldn't he raise with an OESD?). Unfortunately, if he's aggressive as you've indicated, he'll raise with a lot of hands that beat you on the river, even if it's only top pair. I think the range of hands that beat you + giving him the opportunity to bluff with a hand like Ax would make check-calling a good play.

Garland

[andyfox]

"He may have decided to just call you down with his 88 or 99 or whatever"

In the 40-80, calling the pre-flop 3-bet, and then calling on both the turn and the river often does indeed mean a medium/smallish pocket pair.

The river queen's got to be a scary card for any hand other than A-K and one would think that mike's opponent wouldn't think he could bluff mike out here or that mike would not call a raise. So I agree with you: bet and fold to a raise.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
the sort of hands this guy would raise on the button that the Q would have helped would have been hands he would have thrown a raise on the flop hoping to get a free card since he is an aggressive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

no offense, but free card??? from mike l.? noooooooo

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
giving him the opportunity to bluff with a hand like Ax would make check-calling a good play.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

Ax has some showdown value and will probably get called by any hand that beats it. I don't think this will ever happen.

[obi---one]

Interesting question,
One aspect you left out of your hand description is your opoonents view of you. His view of you would change the way I play the hand. Unless he views you as a straight manaic, he thinks you have a big hand, and he is still calling. So he has to have a pair or a straight draw, and there are a lot of them out there. A queen is a good card, bad card. If he is a weaktight two plus twoer you must bet to make him fold a jack, or same hand. If you think he has to see the goods, I would check and fold because a queen makes a lot of hands and this hand is bluff proof, any good player is not going to try a bluff here. I think he will only bet kq or better. If I was playing and had you on a tight image, I would check down any hand that could not beat aces.

[mike l.]

not sure what specifically he thinks of me, but i can say that everyone in this game is highly suspicious of everyone else, so people tend to bet and call w/ some surprisingly weak hands. also bluff river raises in this game are more common than in any other game ive ever played. of course in other games they are nearly non existent.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
also bluff river raises in this game are more common than in any other game ive ever played

[/ QUOTE ]

The question is if calling all the way with TPTK type hands just to raise them on the river is just as common as bluff river raises. If no: bet and call a raise.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
not sure what specifically he thinks of me, but i can say that everyone in this game is highly suspicious of everyone else, so people tend to bet and call w/ some surprisingly weak hands. also bluff river raises in this game are more common than in any other game ive ever played. of course in other games they are nearly non existent.

[/ QUOTE ]

This 1-2 game plays so much like the Party 10-20 6-max game it's sick.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
not sure what specifically he thinks of me, but i can say that everyone in this game is highly suspicious of everyone else, so people tend to bet and call w/ some surprisingly weak hands. also bluff river raises in this game are more common than in any other game ive ever played. of course in other games they are nearly non existent.

[/ QUOTE ]

This 1-2 game plays so much like the Party 10-20 6-max game it's sick.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean sickly profitable?

[mike l.]

"This 1-2 game plays so much like the Party 10-20 6-max game it's sick."

perfect. except i cant tolerate the swings or suckouts on the 10-20 6 max.

[mike l.]

i opted for the check w/ the intention of calling. i figured that he may something like AQ or AK he had decided to play meekly given my limp reraise, and i didnt want to tangle w/ a possible bluff river raise from this guy.

[SinCityGuy]

You have a fair hand to showdown and a chance to induce a bluff. I like a check/call here.

[mplspoker]

After 3 bets in there preflop and bets on flop and turn I don't think you can afford to lay this one down.... I'm definitely not an expert, but check call seems pretty obvious to me. Isn't that the standard play for mediocre holding like this? chuck

[ike]

LOL. But for ten times the stakes its OK as long as you get to look the guy in the eye while he sucks out on you?

[mike l.]

not sure why exactly, but i make unreasonable amounts of money playing live games and cant seem to do much better than about $5 an hour or something online.

[DiamondDave]

Check and call. The next best choice is to bet and consider calling a raise, but check-calling takes all the drama out of it.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
not sure why exactly, but i make unreasonable amounts of money playing live games and cant seem to do much better than about $5 an hour or something online.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why exactly either.

[Lawrence Ng]

Mike, I am really starting to like the way you play your hands. You really know how to take control and by doing so you have the edge to really play down an opponent and get a better read on them.

First of all, the opponent did not once signal any strength at all on the flop and turn, but that queen does give the nuts for AK which is a very likely hand. Your opponent could also have a smaller pocket pair, but unless your opponent is a loose player, this might not be so.

So I guess it is player dependent.

I believe the optimal decision is to check-call down, hopefully they will bluff if they missed, and you make an extra bet.

[OrangeHeat]

[ QUOTE ]
bet and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am missing something here. In a game where there are more frequent river bluff raises this line runs a larger risk of losing the whole pot to a bluff where check calling costs the same in BB's and may induce a bluff gaining you a BB.

Can anyone expound on the EV of the two cases - this is one play I question every time I see and I would like to understand it.

Thanks,
Orange

[elysium]

hi mike

whoa, great post. i don't know what to do in this spot. i can't tell if this opponent is now triple over-carded or not. i call it down just to see what he's been calling me down with. sometimes, but not very often mike, AK gets played like that by that type opponent. but see he doesn't raise that flop, and this opponent would have done that with AK. what the could he have played like that?

my best guess here mike is 88. just check-call because he's not very comfortable with his hand and might fold on you if you betout. and of course, if i'm wrong and he does have the AK, you save a bet.

all that you can do on the river is check-call.

[elysium]

hi orange

that's another reason i don't like the betout; the risk of getting bluffed off my hand. with mike, that risk isn't too great though, and it's not a major consideration.

the main problem with betting out is that mike's opponent is too likely to raise or fold, and this opponent isn't likely releasing any hands that mike isn't leading, since any hand that mike doesn't lead here would not have been played like that. that might seem to indicate a value bet for mike, but on that board? i'm not sure, but i think it is a check-call.

mike betout. that's not too unreasonable.

[Ray Zee]

check fold-- unless you think he would bluff more than about one out of seven times or whatever was in the pot in bets.

[mike l.]

i checked and he chceked behind and my hand was good. he didnt show but im thinking pocket pair. i cant imagine what else it could be.