After the initial mistake, what should I do here?

[kokothemonkey]

Yesterday I played in a 33 person $50 tournament at a friend's apartment. We started with 200 in chips with the blinds at 1/2 and going up every 20 minutes. Here is the first hand of the table I was on:

Hero is SB with A /images/graemlins/club.gif, T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Preflop: UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 4, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to 15, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop (T45): [3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif] (3 players)
Hero bets 50, BB calls, MP2 folds.

Turn (T145): [4 /images/graemlins/club.gif] (2 players)
Now what? I know I probably never should have raised from the SB with such a marginal hand to begin with, esp in such shitty position and so early in the tournament. But I hit top pair, and I'm pretty sure the BB does not have a 3. He's a pretty good player, so I know he's probably not on any stupid draws. I thought he might have a low pp, and put me on AK. I don't rule out an overpair, either, though. Perhaps he just called the flop hoping to steal on the turn. The point is, if I check this turn, I'm pretty much giving up a 145 chip pot. And anything less than an all-in here is a pretty weak bet I think.

[Mez]

Ya, quite a monkey play on the first hand. If you have no read on this person, I might check here. Very well could be a calling station that saw a random hand and figured that 15 wasn't lot. If he bets large, you may have to fold, you still have 135, with blinds of 1/2. You're not exactly pot committed.

If you have a read or know this is a decent player, I would bet. You're likely up against JT.

[kokothemonkey]

Knowing this player, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't call the 15 without a decent hand. So the question is...what decent hand?

[pocket3s]

This sounds like the perfect time for a weak lead. Bet small into the big pot and see what he does. If he calls, your almost certain he has a low pair or the ten and you have him. If he raises, you lay down and only lose the little bit extra. And if he missed the flop with two over cards, he might just fold.

[kokothemonkey]

Hmm...a weak lead...I always thought that was, well, weak. But it makes sense I suppose. But I think he's the kind of player who'd sense the weakness and push me off, whether he had it or not. I guess the moral is not to play AT in this position.

[gergery]

What would he minraise with, and then call a raise with? What would he then call a hefty raise with this board?

You have to figure him for AA-TT here, or a big ass bluff

So you're beat badly (very likely), or you take his money later if he's this terrible. And this situation is exactly why you don't raise AT out of position. PS its not weak to fold if you're beat

[Potowame]

[ QUOTE ]

PS its not weak to fold if you're beat


[/ QUOTE ]

If all indications are, that you are going to lose the showdown, it would be "weak" to continue in the hand.