When to call an all-in because of the math

[MrG]

Please tell me how to calculate when to call all-in. I felt I may be beat on this hand but also thought the odds were to good to laydown. Even though my read on Mp2 was right (a big pair)I think the math might dictate that I have to move all in here anyway. Thanks for the help.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed)

CO (t750)
Button (t3890)
SB (t9572)
Hero (t2535)
UTG (t8075)
UTG+1 (t4030)
MP1 (t1817)
MP2 (t18781)
MP3 (t2265)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t200, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t400</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls t400, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t200, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises to t1817</font>, MP2 calls t1392, CO calls t325 (All-In), Hero folds.

Flop: (t4709) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t4709) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t4709) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t4709
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2600 (t2600), between CO, MP1 and MP2.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t2109 (t2109), between MP1 and MP2.</font>

[adanthar]

There's clearly a bigger pair in here somewhere, 4700 chips in the pot and you have to put in 1300. You aren't 3.5:1 to win this hand, and you're probably not winning much after the flop because with the main pot protected, overcards won't bluff/will fold. This is an easy fold.

[MrG]

Thanks. I think having just 12BB in my stack with the blinds minutes from doubling made me get a little impatient. I took some time and am glad I did.

[SossMan]

If I calculate it correctly, then you are getting a little over 3:1 on a call. You are getting about 2.5:1 less than that if you push (assuming MP2 never folds). You are about 7:1 to flop a set, and you have to have it hold up against 3 opponents.
This is an easy fold when MP1 pushes. The original call is debateable, too. I would probably have folded since I wasn't closing the action, but the first call isn't horrible.
I think the second is an auto fold.

[USCUNC]

I think this is an easy fold.

With low-to mid pair - and others calling the allin you are likely - at the outset way behind. Likely another higher pair or some honors. etc. Likely you will be all in with pair of 6's - at this stage of the tourney - not knowing what the flop, turn or river is do you want to be all in with 66?

I'd call like you did to see the flop - but to the raise - let it go. For example CO thought enough of their hand - being short stacked to put all 750 in and Mp2 is well stacked.

I fold.

Now, if you were in CO position with 750 chips - you would have been all in - on your pre-flop move.

Regards