Multi-tabling and streaks

[Greg J]

Hello guys,

I usually don't post on this forum -- my "home" is micro limits. I'm somewhat inexperienced still, but still like to think I am a good (though not spectacular) limit hold em player, and have played enough and had enough success to conclude that I am a winning player on average.

I wanted to post about multi-tabling and streaks. If this subject has been posted on before forgive me... the search function is not very good on this site IMO.

In the past I didn't multi table, but started recently (2 tables is all -- maybe I should call it dual-tabling). I also have done so coming back (and since last night, all the way back) from an 80bb downslide.

Now intuitively, you would think that multitabling would increase your swings, be they positive or negative. But thinking more analytically and statistically, I then thought the opposite would be true.

Imagine a normal distribution of outcomes for a given session plaing only one table. If you have a range of possible outcomes and the height of the curve of any one point represents the chance of reaching those outcomes. Obviously this would not look like a normal distribution, but would be much flatter and the extremes -- the end of each side of the curve would go out farther, and the center of the curve, rperesenting the mean, would be relatively low, representing a large standard deviation. (I tried to make a graph, but it did not work so well in posting.)

Now, if you are playing two tables (and assuming your quality of play does not go down), each table will have this same distribution. However, added together, your overall results should begin to become more distributed toward this middle. The middle of the curve would be higher (so the chances of "hitting" the mean go up), and the standard deviation would be lower.

As you play more and more tables your distribution should continue to get more and more centrally distributed (again, assuming your play quality does not go down), so the chances of playing toward you mean keep going up, while your standard deviation keeps going down.

Given that down streaks are psychologically damaging to a lot of players (including me), I think this multitabling might be a good way to offset them somewhat. Of course downswings will still happen to even the best players, but they should be blunted. However, upswings will also be blunted (a sacrifice I am willing to make).

Comments?

[kpux]

Nice post. I think you pretty much said all there is to be said about the topic. I multi-table, 4 tables of 2/4, or 3/6, or 30/3 SnG's, or whatever I'm playing, and there is much less standard deviation than playing 1 table at a casino.

It is analogous to those displays in science museums where they drop balls down a bunch of spokes and on the bottom a bell curve forms. The more balls that fall, the more the curve reflects a perfect bell curve. Just like the more hands you play in poker, the more your winnings approach your expectation in the long run. Multi-tabling just gets to this result faster, as dropping four balls at once makes the bell curve approach perfection faster.

One thing you said that I would disagree with is that the upswings will be blunted. I suppose if you're running hot on one table and are down a little bit on two others, you could say it is blunted. But I would say that the swings simply occur faster, since you're seeing more hands. I don't think it's a matter of volume of cash, but rather just speed, since four tables will work out deviation four times as fast as one table would.

Awesome avatar, by the way.

[Nottom]

Relistically, when multi-tabling you will see bigger swings. If playing one table you expect to see a 100BB downswing once every 4 months, then while 4 tabling you would expect that same swing once a month. Granted the big wins will happen 4 times as often as well.

The advantage of multitabling is that the swings go by faster, and you get used to the common ones pretty quickly. Instead of having a losing streak that lasts a week or 2, they will usually only last a few days before you get back on track. I think this is a good thing because its those extanded losing streaks that really make you 2nd guess your game.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing you said that I would disagree with is that the upswings will be blunted. I suppose if you're running hot on one table and are down a little bit on two others, you could say it is blunted. But I would say that the swings simply occur faster, since you're seeing more hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I should have been mroe clear about something. The unit that I am talking about is a session. Given that in the same amount of amount of time, you will play twice the number of hands, your results for any given session should be more centrally distributed. You are correct though; if you play 1000 hands single tabling or multi tabling, your distribution should be the same (assuming the quality of play does not change).

And both you and Nottom where correct about my being wrong about the bb swings, though the fact they will come and go faster, in my view (and experience), tends to "blunt" them in perception, not reality. This has two advantages that I can see:

1) It tends to make downswings pass faster, which makes you doubt your play less (as Nottom points out).

2) It also tends to make upswings pass faster, which means you don't think you are invincible, and get cocky either.

Thanks for the input!

(Yes my avatar does rock... when I get to higher limits I will replace it with a Sharkticon /images/graemlins/laugh.gif )

[dogmeat]

While the upswings pass faster, shouldn't the overall effect be a more sustained upward line and wouldn't the upward spikes be more pronounced? Certainly that would not be a blunted upswing, would it?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[pzhon]

The point of multi-tabling is to play more hands. It doesn't cut your swings if you play at the same limit as before.

If you add two independent normally distributed random variables, the sum has another normal distribution. If the means are m1 and m2, and the standard deviations are s1 and s2, then the average of the sum is m1 + m2, and the standard deviation of the sum is sqrt(s1^2 + s2^2).

If you play the same way at two tables, or equivalently, if you double the length of your session, the average win doubles. The standard deviation increases only by a factor of sqrt(2) ~ 1.4. Though the swings are not smaller, you get to the long run (say, where breaking even is 2 standard deviations below average) in half as many sessions.

To smooth out your swings, you could replace one table of 2-4 with two tables of 1-2 or four tables of 0.50-1.