Raise the river against this LAG?

[chesspain]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

After being unable to return to sleep early this morning following a thunderstorm, I decided to see if there were any juicy games filled with Friday night lingerers. This game seemed to fit the bill. In fact, although I had not been at this table very long, the SB in this hand had already shown major LAG tendencies, such as raising UTG with Q7s, after which she reraised a whiffed flop HU, and bet the turn and river unimproved. Furthermore, she had shown no qualms about completing in the SB with any two, or coldcalling raises with hands like A7o.

Preflop: chesspain is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">chesspain raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">SB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">chesspain 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB caps</font>, chesspain calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">chesspain raises</font>, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, chesspain calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 14.50 BB, between chesspain and SB.</font>

[stoxtrader]

I think a call is best after the cap on the flop - which has a high likelyhood of beeing an OESD.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]

I think a call is best after the cap on the flop - which has a high likelyhood of beeing an OESD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think this? A flop cap could be lots of things.

I don't know if a river raise is correct though, the player probably has either Qx, Ax or some two pair hand and chesspain is probably ahead, the thing is that every time he's not ahead he gets 3-bet and has to call. It's a hard choice.

[spamuell]

I've been thinking about more about this hand. The LAG is pretty likely to have two pair and be worried about it being checked through, or maybe AJ or AT (although that might have been 3bet PF). I think you can raise the river because the only hand the LAG is likely to have which beats you is something like QJ or KQ while there are lots more two pair or even lower set hands which don't beat you, as well as one pair which was improved by the ace to two.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can raise the river because the only hand the LAG is likely to have which beats you is something like QJ or KQ while there are lots more two pair or even lower set hands which don't beat you, as well as one pair which was improved by the ace to two.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think that the risk that she has QT/QJ/KQ, or possibly any other overplayed Qx, makes it foolish to expose myself to a three-bet which I have to call?

[Trix]

The only street worth discussion is the river imo.
Raising the turn should be standard against most players, especially lags.
Put the guy on a range of hands and decide whether or not you can fold to a 3bet and then see if you are ahead often enough to raise.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Put the guy on a range of hands and decide whether or not you can fold to a 3bet and then see if you are ahead often enough to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty much what this question was designed to answer. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Trix]

I actually didn´t read the topic /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I think you will have to call a 3bet and thus have to be ahead 67% of the time as I also think he will call the raise with any hand that is behind.

I think you can list the hand range yourself. I´ll reply if I disagree..

Without doing them it looks like a call.

g2g now, later.

[chesspain]

SB showed K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif, and MHIG.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]

You don't think that the risk that she has QT/QJ/KQ, or possibly any other overplayed Qx, makes it foolish to expose myself to a three-bet which I have to call?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well that's the problem and what I was initially thinking made it so difficult but I think you should still raise. Because she's a LAG, she's likely to have lots of overplayed hands but I think two pair is hugely more likely than Qx where X doesn't pair the board. That she bets each street makes it look like she's worried about you checking behind which means she probably does have at least a pair.

She probably has one of the following (number in brackets is how many ways the hand can be made): KQ (4), QT (12), QJ (12), KT (3), KJ (3), JT (9), TT (3), AJ (9), AT (9). Using bayesian probability alone, you shouldn't threebet. But I would think that two pair is more likely to be played this way than a set but perhaps I'm wrong and a call is better. I forgot that your having KK makes two pair much less likely.