Who makes this "pot odds" call?

[Gramps]

Since the opponent in this hand is very short stacked and in the BB for 200 the next hand, it would seem he could be pushing a wide range of (non-pair) hands - so the call would seem to make sense from a "pure pot odds" perpective. But...I wasn't sure if it was correct to do so or not - as I'm giving up a round of blinds and leaving my self pretty short stacked (giving up some of my "gap" to steal blinds with, etc.)....

Call or fold? It's an extra 330 to win 830 - giving me about 2.5:1 odds to call

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed)

UTG (t530)
MP1 (t1695)
MP2 (t1205)
CO (t3080)
Button (t1200)
SB (t940)
Hero (t1350)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t530 (All-In)</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero...?????

[tallstack]

FWIW, I don't like this call here. I think it is too much of your stack to put in on a pot-odds call. If you are a 60/40 dog (or worse) then you will be swapping places as the short stack too much of the time here. If you fold this then you still have two stacks below you and enough chips to steal.

If the chips stacks were reversed and you were putting in your last 330 on the bb then I would say you should go with the pot odds, but IMO you have too much to lose here to take the worst of it.

Dave S

[lastchance]

I call. I don't let someone nearly double up his stack for a cheap price. And that extra boost can really help you if you hit it. 300 is just 1.5x BB... But every BB counts..

Is the guy weak-tight? Is he a maniac?

Most of the time, I make this call though.

[Burno]

I call here almost every time. Like you said, with the blinds coming next hand, he may very well be pushing with any two (I would). There's a decent chance you are actually ahead as well.

[adanthar]

This is a 'grimace and' autocall. If you had 72o, it'd be much more marginal, but not with a decent king against his likely range of hands (any A/K/pair, most Q's, Jxs.)

[pukenpete]

This is a bit tough and I don't like it at all and would probably fold. I guess it would depend on the opponent but if he's got a pair between the K and 7, you are just about getting the exact odds on this call but you're still a big dog. If he's got a pair lower than 7 or suited connectors between K and 7, then it's a coinflip. Any ace and most K's hurt you. At best you'd have a 3:2 advantage if he's got Q8o or about 2:1 if he's got K and &lt;7 or two cards &lt;7. It sucks bigtime that everyone except the CO is short stacked but I just wouldn't call that UTG all-in unless I had a better read. Of course, I've done more stupid things...

[Jason Strasser]

This is a spot that separates good sng players and poor ones.

2.5:1 odds are very good. I would make this call with 23o. I suppose in the lower buy in tourneys where you may be able to really outplay your opponents you can pass on small edges like this, but any hand is not going to be far enough behind to pass on 2.5:1 with a typical opponent.

If the odds are 3:1, I should think you have to call this at any level, your hand is just not going to be a big enough dog to make folding wrong. Part of being good at sngs are making correct calls, even when they appear loose.

-jason

[Gramps]

What about any "meta considerations" here? Straight up pot odds, it's an auto-call, but here if I call and lose it's 1350-530 (I've already commited 200 in BB) = 820 and have to pay 100 for the SB next hand. If I have to fold there, I'm down to 720 which means I still might fold everyone out with a push, but I'm probably going to have to act on the next round, which means I'm pretty much forced into "push crap" mode right away...and I may get "pot odds called" by the BB (getting 2:1 on my push) in a spot I don't want him calling me, where having 330 more chips may have folded him out.

If I fold, I still have 1050 after the SB, and have the option to sit and wait an orbit and still have 750 in chips (this was the 2nd hand of 100/200). And if I do push my 1050 on the next orbit, I have a better chance of folding out the BB (or others who's stack I can do more damage to) who I probably don't want calling me.

If I call and win, that gives me 1880 which would be great, but I'm thinking that's only going to happen about 40% of the time at best, and I still have a lot of work left to do to get in the money...definitely an advantage gained, but big enough to take the risk...?

[adanthar]

You can take those types of things into consideration when you have a hand like 32o and the call really *is* marginal even at 2.5:1. With K7o, there's a significant to decent chance you are a favorite in the hand and a pretty good chance you are relatively even. This is a no brainer call, even if it hurts.

I wouldn't make this call with 32o with 'only' these odds, but I'd go down to 76s or even a little lower.

[mackthefork]

Anyone who advocates a fold here please commit Jasons post to memory in order that I can stop needing to drink meths at the table when people fold in these spots, I often wonder wtf is he folding there. We spend so much time working out what is correct in regards to odds when calling and then we give short stacks such an easy time by folding like little girls on or near the bubble, be a man and get it called you know you want to.

Regards Mack

[SeppDeitrich]

hero... Calls

[patrick dicaprio]

why wouldnt you call here?? you have to be no worse than 60-40 and there is a good chance you are a favorite. i would call with a lot worse that this. i would probably call with almost any two cards, Ak vs 72 is still getting correct odds to call, or at least damn close.

Pat

[Tosh]

I don't see you have a choice but to call.

[betgo]

I would call with 72o.

[tallstack]

OK, I have obviously pooched this one. In my mind I was reading 2.5:1 as a 60:40 split when it is more like 72:28. I take back what I said here. Those odds can't be passed up.


Dave S

[Cornbread Maxwell]

I would probably fold a REALLY bad hand here simply because I want to maintain a big enough stack to effectively push allin (as a steal) after the blinds go past me. If I had a huge stack, I might consider calling with any 2, although I might fold 82o, 72o, 32o, etc. getting only 2.5 to 1.

However, with a hand like Kx or Ax(especially if x is greater than or equal to 7), this is a very easy call.

[durron597]

There are exactly two hands he could have that would make this an incorrect call, AA and KK. The odds of him having those two hands compared to the range of hands he could have is quite frankly ridiculous; even if he has 77 you should still call.

[Gramps]

I called with my K7. UTG flipped over 99 /images/graemlins/mad.gif. Flop came K-7-5. /images/graemlins/smile.gif ...then the Turn and River were 8-6 giving UTG the runner-runner straight. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Seemed like the right thing to do given the odds - but afterwards I was wondering if this might be one of those spots where the value of the chips I was putting at risk were worth too much to risk even a + EV (counting every chip as having equal tangible value) pot odds call. Sounds like the overmwhelming consensus is that calling was the right thing to do.

Thanks for the replies. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[wuwei]

This is a great post. I know it's already improved my sng game. I've had a few situations today and yesterday where I attempted to steal blinds from tight opponents when I had a hand that was marginal at best. They came back over the top of me and went all in. In the past, I might have just shrugged it off as a steal gone wrong and folded since they likely had the better hand. But after considering the odds I was getting to call, I followed through and won 2 of 3. These calls helped me improve from just getting into the money to making the plays I need to get 1st.

One guy was outraged when his AJo lost to my Q9o, he couldn't believe I called! I decided not to mention the ~2.4:1 odds I was getting on the call. I'll let him figure that out on his own...

Thanks again, Jason