Q7s from the SB Raise or Fold situation?

[AdamL]

I have Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the SB. 5 players limp and I complete. BB checks. (7SB)

Flop is Q /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks. I check. A middle position player bets. Two more players call and it's up to me.

I can't see calling here being correct. Raise or fold?

[MarkD]

You should raise.

[bakku]

What Mark said. I'd also like to point out that calling is much better than folding, I hope this doesn't need to be explained. I'd also just bet out on the flop.

[AdamL]

What is the goal of the raise and what am I looking to do with the hand on the turn and river?

Adam

[MarkD]

What is the goal of the raise
The goal of the raise is to show the highest possible +EV with this hand on this board.

You are hoping that everyone in between yourself and the flop better folds, thereby increasing the likelihood of you winning the hand, and at the same time you are maximizing your profit those times you are ahead.

what am I looking to do with the hand on the turn and river?
Well, ideally you are looking for a 7 on the turn and a Q on the river and that your opponents raise you on the turn and and the river but we can't get everything we wish for.

You are going to follow up your flop check raise with a bet. You are hoping that everyone folds but if they don't it's only a minor setback as you will have the best hand sometimes.

If you do not improve before the river you are hoping to see a showdown for no more than 2BB's on average and if you improve you are hoping to see a showdown for much greater than 2BB average (the 7 is better than the Q).

[AdamL]

Mark,

This is a big help. I really appreciate you taking the time to go into this much detail in your response.

[ QUOTE ]
What is the goal of the raise
The goal of the raise is to show the highest possible +EV with this hand on this board.

You are hoping that everyone in between yourself and the flop better folds, thereby increasing the likelihood of you winning the hand, and at the same time you are maximizing your profit those times you are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, there is no chance of my opponents folding. However, I am definitely collecting extra bets if my hand is ahead.

If there is a queen out there, I'm almost always behind. Nobody in my game plays Q6 on down. Given that nobody is folding here, and that a third queen is no good to me, is raising still correct? Can calling and then raising or leading on the turn (provided a safe card comes) be a better option?

I'm not sure how the math would work on this, but how often do I need to have the best hand for raising the flop to be profitable?


Thanks again,

Adam

[MarkD]

In this case, there is no chance of my opponents folding.
...
If there is a queen out there, I'm almost always behind. Nobody in my game plays Q6 on down.

These two statements are contradictory. There are 3 players between yourself and the flop bettor that have already checked the flop. If they will never fold to your CR here than your opponents are playing Q6 and much worse.

I actually don't believe that players in your game won't play Q6 and below since most low limit players will player Qxs, especially with lots of people in. Now, even if what you say is correct about Q6 and below I discount the likelihood of either of the two flop callers having a Q in their hands as most would raise this flop. I also assume they are typical low limit bad players which means they could have as little as one overcard (or maybe worse). It is also possible that the flop bettor has something like 99.

The check raise is right here almost always. Betting out may have been right but given the check and the way the action has occurred check raising is the best play IMO.

[W. Deranged]

The math here is not that straightforward, because there are several other variables to consider, notably the value your check-raise has in eliminating other players (by my count there is at least one player between you and the original bettor), and in increasing your odds of winning by forcing out overcard/drawing hands on the flop or eventually on the turn.

But, we can look at one example. Namely, let's imagine your check-raise does the most likely thing, which is to eliminate the lone player between you and the bettor, but cause the bettor and the two callers to call.

My estimates will be pretty rough here, but I think it's pretty close:

Let's say x (100x%) of the time you are ahead. The remaining 1-x you are behind. When you are behind, the vast majority of the time you are behind to a better Q, in which case you have 3 outs. The odds of hitting your three outer is roughly .12.

So, for the raise to be correct strictly from a value standpoint (not including the major fact that the raise will likely increase your chance of winning the hand), your pot equity has to be better than .25 (assuming you get three callers). Let's simplify things by assuming your pot equity is a very simple sum of your odds of having the best hand plus your odds of hitting a seven when you are behind. So:

.12(1-x) + x > .25

.88x + .12 > .25

x > .13/.88 = .148

So, your hand only has to be good about 15% of the time for this raise to be okay from a value standpoint. Considering the other value in raising (forcing out players, etc...), I think a check-raise is much the best here.


Disclaimer: I realize there are a ton of things I left out here. Including, but not limited to:

1. The chance that you could hit a 7 and still lose.
2. The chance that you will be raised by the original bettor.


These are obviously huge factors, but I just figured that looking at a "most likely case" would be illustrative.

[AdamL]

That is extremely illustrative of how good a raise is here. You don't even have to be right all that often for it to be correct. That is a play I like /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I haven't seen this kind of analysis (with the math) done anywhere before. I don't even see it in SSH. Although Miller does make the same play recommendations, I don't think he gives this kind of mathematical detail on it. (I can understand why, but still.) Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

[DiamondDave]

You wouldn't be making a big mistake by not completing the SB with sooted queens and such.