Am i an idiot?

10 handed, seat 8, seat 2 is the button, middle position with Q,J... UTG folds... everyone else sees the flop:


9d 9h Tc


it's checked to me, i bet out with and open ended straight draw, player to my left calls, and after him a raise, then another, it's called around, one folds, and I cap it(?).


5 players, Turn: 5h


it's checked to me, i bet. Three seats after player raises... everyone calls, i re-raise, everyone calls


5 player, River: 8 (my money card, ha )


the betting is capped, two seats after me player turns over a 7c,6h for a stright six to ten... i happily turn over my Q,J for a stright eight to queen... then player to my left turns over 10,9 for a full house, nines full of tens.


Does this just happen? Or did i make some serious errors with a pair on the board?


thanks for any help.


index

First, are nine players in the hand. With that many players I would be worried about someone having a nine or at least a ten. The problem with betting is that it is likely to come back raised. The time to bet a draw is when you think enough people will fold that if you pair one of your cards you might win (only a few opponents). When it was raised and reraised back I think you had an easy fold. Assuming one of the players had a nine, they have a better chance of making the full house than you do of making your straight, and even if you do make it you may still lose! I would have check-folded on the flop.

(nt)

Your position is fairly early in the hand -- I think betting the flop with holding overcards and an open-ended straight draw on a paired, coordinated board is too aggressive. Calling a raise and a reraise behind you, given the board, is unwise. Capping it is worse. You are in a weak position relative to these players, and they have shown extreme strength. You have a speculative hand. I would have not bet the flop and folded to the two raises. If the board wasn't paired -- different story.


I don't think betting out again on the turn can be justified. The five didn't help you and you bet into likely raisers still with a speculative hand. You then re-raise the lone raiser. Ugh.


You hit your straight on the river, and the betting is capped. You have to ask yourself: With a paired board showing a three straight, what are these guys raising and calling raises with? You were drawing dead the whole time. You're not an idiot -- but some clearly wrong plays were made.


Jon I.

(nt)

"The time to bet a draw is when you think enough people will fold that if you pair one of your cards you might win (only a few opponents). "


Not necessarily. With enough opponents calling your bet you could also bet a draw for value. Problem here is that there's a pair on the board and your outs may not be good (you could even be drawing dead).


I like the betting out in this multiway pot with your draw, because it could be an immediate value bet, and you might get information about possible 9 or better out there.


When it's raised and re-raised I think your cap is overplaying your hand, since you have to assume at least a 9 is out, or maybe a full, so your outs are crippled.


It's a bit hard to see who called and who not, but I estimate that there are about 33 sb in the pot (assuming 4 players called 3 cold). So you're getting about 1:16 on a call. What kind of hands can re-raiser raise with? IMO he could re-raise with AT (maybe KT), an overpair, TT, or any hand containing a 9. Only hands you really have to fear are 9T and TT. I think, although you could be drawing dead, you have such a big overlay that you have to call (although any 9 has redraws against you).


Your turn bet is terrible IMO. You can almost be sure your gonna get raised, since there's a very good chance a 9 is out. I would check-call. I dont know what you were thinking when you re-raised.


When you hit on the river, I would bet out and call a raise, fearing a full with this kind of heavy action.


Summary: You overplayed your hand big time.


Regards

"I think betting the flop with holding overcards and an open-ended straight draw on a paired, coordinated board is too aggressive."


I certainly dont think so. In this sort of very loose games, even on a paired board, I think it almost is an automatic value bet.


"Calling a raise and a reraise behind you, given the board, is unwise."


It's close, but remember you get about 1:16 on a call. That's a pretty big overlay.


"You are in a weak position relative to these players, and they have shown extreme strength"


Your position doesnt matter too much IMO, since your play after the flop has become pretty straight forward. I think "extreme strength" is an exaggeration. Many decent players will 3-bet on the flop in this situation to isolate (with hands like AT etc).


Regards

nt

Ikke,


The nine small bets pre-flop, his flop bet, the caller, the raiser, the reraiser, and 4 players cold calling three bets is 28 small bets in the pot. His cold call would be getting 14 to 1 (but close to 16 to 1 if he expects the players to his left to call). So the pot is offering good odds relative to the odds of making your hand. However, the pot isn't offering good odds relative to the odds of your hand holding up. Those odds have to be adjusted down considering the paired board and the raise and reraise.


Paired boards short-handed aren't very worrisome. Paired and connected flops with nine players in on the hand spell trouble.


I'll run a sim tonight and give the results. I don't expect it to be a profitable play...


Jon I.

"So the pot is offering good odds relative to the odds of making your hand. However, the pot isn't offering good odds relative to the odds of your hand holding up. Those odds have to be adjusted down considering the paired board and the raise and reraise."


Ofcourse these odds have to be adjusted down, and quite a bit. However you have such a big overlay on a call. If all your outs were good you only needed 1:4,9...he's getting 1:14! That should cover the chance of drawing dead or redraws IMO.


"I'll run a sim tonight and give the results "


That would be interesting. I have no experience with sims, but how are you gonna do it? Do you fill in all likely holdings of your opponents, or random holdings? I think it's quite difficult to get a realistic picture, but I could be wrong.


Regards

Just starting out with the Turbo Texas Hold'em sim capability. Will fix our hero's position and his hand (QJo). Will also fix the flop at 99To. I'll make the hero bet his overcard straight draw aggressively. We'll see what happens. Would be nice to know if the table is generally loose-aggressive or loose-passive (can't tell from the narrative.


I don't think you can count Qs and Js as outs -- given the likelihood of trips and possibilities of other overcard draws. He's gotta hit an 8 or K.


Jon I.

if it will help with the sim.... at the time... it was a loose aggressive game...


"Our Hero" I love it.....


index

Tried to recreate a loose-aggressive line-up -- difficult given the profiles the program has (and I didn't have the time to make my own). My results show a line-up that wasn't loose or aggressive enough. This naturally skews the results -- how I don't know but I think it would be worse for our hero...


$3-$6 10-handed game. Button from on seat 4, hero at seat 10. Hero has QJo, flop stacked for T99o. Hero is conditioned to bet and raise aggressively with his open-ender on the flop, turn and river.


In 20,000 hands he won with a straight 3,953 times. His made straight lost 1,331 times. His overall win-rate was 30.5%, and his net $ per hand was -$.96. When he did make the straight on the turn, it held up about 80% of the time. His two pair hands got slaughtered -- don't remember the actual numbers.


Take it for what its worth -- probably not very much given the crude nature of my sim (and my obvious holes). I hope to fine tune my sim ability with practice.

"$3-$6 10-handed game. Button from on seat 4, hero at seat 10. Hero has QJo, flop stacked for T99o. Hero is conditioned to bet and raise aggressively with his open-ender on the flop, turn and river. "


This is not what I was advocating. I would only bet the flop, call the re-raise, check-call the turn if I dont hit. That's entirely diffirent than raising every street, which is maniacle.


It is interesting that his hand held 80% up when he hit his straight. So (not counting implied odds and effective odds etc), on the flop, his outs are 0.80 * 8 = 6.4, which is surely enough to call the flop raise and re-raise given the size of the pot.


Did you use that the opponents had random hands? Because this is not true, you have to deal with conditioned probabilities.


Regards

You said his play was fine. If you read the original post our hero capped the flop and re-raised the turn. It can be clearly inferred that he took part in capping the river.


The sim players don't play random hands, but have pre-determined hand selection characteristics. I tried to get the loosest and most aggressive players possible. Still, it was very rare that nine ever saw the flop or eight saw the turn.


Actually -- his straight got beat 25% of the time as the won/lost with straight numbers show. The other stat I gave was when he MADE IT on the river -- then it held up four times in five. Assuming he is bound and determined to play the hand to the end (and it seems like he was) -- he is going to miss his straight four times in five. The one time in five that he makes it, he's only going go win the hand three times out of four.


If you play straight draws the way he did -- I want you to come to Wisconsin and join my game... :)


Jon I.

"You said his play was fine. "


Uhh...I never said that. I only said his flop bet was fine. Lemme quote some out of my own posts.


"When it's raised and re-raised I think your cap is overplaying your hand, since you have to assume at least a 9 is out, or maybe a full, so your outs are crippled."


"Your turn bet is terrible IMO. You can almost be sure your gonna get raised, since there's a very good chance a 9 is out. I would check-call. I dont know what you were thinking when you re-raised."


"Summary: You overplayed your hand big time. "


(this are all quotes out of my post in response of ScottM and the original poster)


"If you play straight draws the way he did -- I want you to come to Wisconsin and join my game... :) "


See my previous comments (I would never played it the way he did), but if you gimme a free trip I would surely come over and even buy you a couple of drinks :-) (I live in the Netherlands)


Regards

"Assuming he is bound and determined to play the hand to the end (and it seems like he was) -- he is going to miss his straight four times in five"


This cant be correct. Since you dont know anything about if his outs are in opponents hands or in the deck, you have take the 8 outer drawing odds. That would mean his odds are 1:2,2 (for turn+river). Missing his straight four times out of five is 1:4, so that cant be correct if you assume he's always seeing the river.


Regards

Once we get past the fact that I've butchered the math and unintentionally misrepresented what you said we come down to two basic disputes:


1. Betting the flop with two overcards and an open-ender with the board paired from early-middle position in a loose-aggressive game; and


2. Colding calling (because you don't advocate the cap and neither do I) the raise and reraise behind on the flop.


Let's work from there.


Some accurate math: The straight draw played to the river is going to improve 31.5 % of the time (8 outs, see HEPFAP at 309. Assuming you aren't already up against a full house, trips played to the river will improve to a full-house 33% of the time (HEPFAP at 310).


I'll address these issues later -- pretty busy right now.


Jon I.

I'm going on holiday tomorrow, but I would really appreciate it if you would mail me the results of the "more advanced" sim at the above mail address. If you have time ofcourse to run the sim. I'd like the 2 conditions you mentioned to be the fundation of the sim.


Regards