15/30 AK hand

[JimmyV]

PP 15/30 in the evening:

Looseish player raises in LMP and I 3-bet with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Cutoff, a 2+2er I have little respect for, caps and it's three-handed to a flop of


5 /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif .

Checked to the cutoff, who bets, and we both call.
I notice that LMP has only $58 left.

Turn is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Checked to CO who bets, LMP calls, I check-raise.

Comments? And what do you put LMP on?

[JimmyV]

This was a pretty tricky play, but I didn't make it. I was actually the cutoff in this hand, and made a minor comment about AK's ability to take down the $2 side pot after I folded. Then he berated me for twenty minutes defending his checkraise, and seemed ready to go on all night berating me.

Obviously the odds dictate that I call here in the cutoff, which is why I folded. I couldn't imagine that the flop 3-bettor actually WANTED me to fold in this protected pot. Surely, I thought, he expected me to pay him off. Guess I should play the odds some more, instead of seeing quads or a flopped set under the bed (or an initially timid QK).

In any case, the all-in player took it down with 99, but the AK seemed to think he had made some theoretical money. Anyone think he did? How often do you expect a preflop capper to fold this turn to a checkraise?

JimmyV

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]

In any case, the all-in player took it down with 99, but the AK seemed to think he had made some theoretical money. Anyone think he did?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the original bettor was all-in for the initial bet, then in this situation, his raise cost him nothing. It increased his outs from 0 or 3 (depending on whether you had Aces or Kings) to 6. Not to mention the fact that he may have actually been ahead of the all in player with his AK.



[ QUOTE ]
How often do you expect a preflop capper to fold this turn to a checkraise?


[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on who the capper was. In this situation it comes down to how he sees you and how he thinks you see him. Although players that make laydowns like this online are rare, they certainly do exist, and provided there is a VERY good chance that the capper will fold an overpair here, I don't think this a bad play.

[JimmyV]

Two small things:

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If the original bettor was all-in for the initial bet, then in this situation, his raise cost him nothing.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that I will indeed fold to the checkraise (unlikely on PP).

[ QUOTE ]

It increased his outs from 0 or 3 (depending on whether you had Aces or Kings) to 6.


[/ QUOTE ]

If I had Aces or Kings then he only has four outs, even if I fold. My cards don't go back into the stub.

JimmyV

[astroglide]

what was the point of making this a "trick post"? if i could go all in against a loose short-stacked guy with AK i certainly would. if i could pick a turn where i had no pair/draw, QQ85 would be right up there to do it. if you did or would fold a better hand (or AK) this should be highly profitable. i presume you made a big/bad laydown because you're posting this.

[ike]

I think the AK player made a great move here and you're giving him too little credit. You're saying his play was a mistake because "people" don't fold overpairs here. He wasn't against people, he was against you. Why are you so sure he didn't know that you were capable of this fold?

[JimmyV]

Anyone interested in responding probabilistically?

What range of hands are you putting the all-in player on?

Astroglide, you preening nincompoop, I made this a trick post because I didn't think my laydown was all that interesting. It's the kind of counterintuitive play I'm trying to make more of when I know my opponent knows the pot odds as well as I do and expects me to call.

In this case -- Ike, you're on the right track -- the opponent knew my 2+2 posts and thought he could push me off a hand (in this case, JJ). He was right, but I still don't see him making theoretical money here.

I made the big laydown. Flame away. But let's hear a little more about this protected-pot scenario. How often does MP have AJ here? How often are you cats calling all the way down anyway with AK unimproved given the action so far?

JimmyV

[astroglide]

What range of hands are you putting the all-in player on?

i really don't think he has a queen, and i doubt a five or an 8. so any random broadway cards, any random ace, any pocket pair.

the opponent knew my 2+2 posts and thought he could push me off a hand (in this case, JJ). He was right, but I still don't see him making theoretical money here

i think AK is a great hand against a loose guy sitting with $100 at a 15/30 table and an innocuous board. heads up, i like the hand a lot. heads up with twice the money (your dead money) is a HELL of a deal, so getting you to fold any pair is huge.

[JimmyV]

But liking AK heads-up preflop is a lot different from liking it on the TURN versus someone who's seen fit to call two bets, no? I'm thinking pocket pair is looking much more likely for the MP player than KJ, KT, JT, and probably four times as likely as AJ even.

I'm not very good at quantifying, but maybe someone would be interested in doing so. (And remember it's still possible that CO has AQ.)

Thanks, astro, for a post with more content.

JimmyV

[Michael Davis]

Why do you assume your opponent doesn't under the protected pot? Sounds like he was one step ahead of you.

-Michael

[astroglide]

no, it's not the same, but like i said as far as innocuous boards go QQ85 is right up there. most people who have that little money and raise will go in regardless of what happens (e.g. naked ace).

it is possible that the co had AQs (still doubt it because of the cap and the fact that two of them showed up), but i'm sure a threebet would have gotten the AK guy out of there. if it wouldn't, then his turn checkraise was just dumb and loose/aggressive. if he knows your play/history and he did this because he thought he could push you off a pair, it's an excellent and well thought-out play. the "protected pot" bit would be in your head as well as his, so he knows that you'll think "he can't possibly be checkraising two people with something other than a queen here".

all of it is only good if he still likes AK against the other guy, but i probably would.

when have i lacked content?

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you assume your opponent doesn't under the protected pot? Sounds like he was one step ahead of you.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I assumed he DID understand it, and therefore had something big to show down. I ruled out the semibluff and had a hard time thinking of something else he could have.

But yes, he was one step ahead of me. Did it make him money? I'm still not sure.