GlemZurg
08-19-2004, 08:57 PM
I'm a newbie trying to understand the math of hand I recently played in a loose game.
I had [10/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 10/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
and the flop was [5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
My thought process is that there is probably not someone drawing to a straight. The risk is someone has a higher wired pair or is drawing to a higher pair.
If someone has or makes a higher pair I only have 2 outs to win (either 10) which will hit 8.5% of the time.
Some one with two overcards will draw out on me 25% of the time. And the worst case would be two people covering each with one of the overcards (A, K, Q, J). In that case I would be outdrawn 50% of the time.
Assuming a field of 3-5 loose players at the flop, is it fair to say I will be outdraw ~35% of the time (assumes the players together are holding 3 of the 4 over cards?
I'll assume (but need help calculating) the chance someone has a higher wired pair is 10%.
In that case there is an
8.5% chance I'll win on a draw alone
The rest of the time (91.5%):
~9% I've already lost to a wired pair (10% of 91.5%)
~30% I'll lose to an overcard draw (35% of 90% of 91.5%)
So I most likely have the best hand now and will lose to a draw 30% of the time.
Any help with bad math or bad observations is greatly appreciated.
Justin
I had [10/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 10/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
and the flop was [5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
My thought process is that there is probably not someone drawing to a straight. The risk is someone has a higher wired pair or is drawing to a higher pair.
If someone has or makes a higher pair I only have 2 outs to win (either 10) which will hit 8.5% of the time.
Some one with two overcards will draw out on me 25% of the time. And the worst case would be two people covering each with one of the overcards (A, K, Q, J). In that case I would be outdrawn 50% of the time.
Assuming a field of 3-5 loose players at the flop, is it fair to say I will be outdraw ~35% of the time (assumes the players together are holding 3 of the 4 over cards?
I'll assume (but need help calculating) the chance someone has a higher wired pair is 10%.
In that case there is an
8.5% chance I'll win on a draw alone
The rest of the time (91.5%):
~9% I've already lost to a wired pair (10% of 91.5%)
~30% I'll lose to an overcard draw (35% of 90% of 91.5%)
So I most likely have the best hand now and will lose to a draw 30% of the time.
Any help with bad math or bad observations is greatly appreciated.
Justin