If you had Jacks every hand...

[Jake (The Snake)]

I somehow just got to wondering the likelihood of winning a MTT NL hold'em tournament if you got the same hand every single time. I think it would be interesting if the hand were JJ or some kind of medium pair. How would you go about playing this? What would your strategy be? What percentage of the time would you expect to win?

I guess you'd also have to take into consideration whether your opponents know you have JJ every hand. If they did, how would your strategy change? If you only had to show your winning hand to the dealer but none of the players (thus the players would never know you were getting JJ every hand), how would you play that?

[Dynasty]

If your opponents magically didn't know, you would easily win 95%+ of your tournaments. You'd very quickly build up the biggest stack at the table and then never have to risk going all-in. The only times you'd lose is when you took a particularly bad beat.

I think my 95% figure might be low since you know you'll get JJ in every hand to follow, you would never take too much of a risk with your stack. Push it up to 99%.

[Iceman]

If they don't know that you have JJ, you would always see the flop as long as you could get in cheaply, and when you flop a set you'd bet it strongly on the flop. No reason to take chances with overpairs when the money is deep. Then when the blinds were high compared to your stack, you'd just go all-in preflop every hand unless a big stack went all-in before you. It would be almost impossible for you to lose - flopping a high set 1/8 of the time would quickly build you a huge stack on deep money rounds, and then you would be able to pick your spots and avoid risks once the blinds get high.

If they knew you had JJ every hand, you'd almost never win, since you'd get no action when you were ahead.

[kokothemonkey]

What if you got 22 every hand? Thats a bit more interesting. You could play them strong, and try to limit the players who saw the flop, but if they hit any piece of it you'd be pretty much screwed, unless you could push them out. I think you'd most likely just try to see all the flops cheaply to hit a set, and try to double up a few times. But this would be interesting once it got to be heads up, because the best you'd ever be pre-flop is a coinflip.

[SossMan]

or any pocket pair for that reason, right.

[Louie Landale]

Dynasty's 95%/99% is hopelessly high since you cannot control getting sucked out. He's right about avoiding all big pots that don't feature you with top set, but even so you are going to lose some of those hands. And you can lose 2-3 in a row to get busted.

The other response suggesting that if the opponents KNEW you would never win. That's rediculous since Jacks is such a favorite every hand. Even if they bluffed as often as they bet when you are beat (and you always fold), you'd still win the blind the vast majority of the time.

Why? Are you going to cheat?

- Louie

[crockett]

The other response suggesting that if the opponents KNEW you would never win. That's rediculous since Jacks is such a favorite every hand.

I’m not so sure I agree with that.

Yes JJ is a big favorite but in this case I know what you have so I'm not playing unless I'm the favorite.

If the table knows you have JJ’s every single time wouldn’t you be guaranteed to lose? For example, you sit down to the first hand and your UTG with JJ of cours. What do you do? I guess you raise. If everyone folds you win the blinds. But what if someone bets. First we’ll assume someone raises you 25% of your stack. What do you do here? If you call you know your behind. If you lay it down you’ve wasted a raise. Second we’ll assume no one will just call because they know your hand, they will either fold or raise. Third asuumption: Will anyone try to throw a bluff at you. I would think not. I’m not risking any of my chips against a pair when I know other players will definitely bet the hand when they know they are ahead. So I think the only bets you will ever see are raises and when you see them you will always be behind. And reraising them would of course be disastrous because your behind.

So I see you as having to make two choices. Hope that no larger pairs hit anyone for a long time while you continue to collect the blinds and build a sufficient enough stack to call a raise and hope to out draw a hand your behind on. Or take a gamble, and if someone puts a large raise in front of you early on, call them and hope you flop your set. You’ll probably get 3-5 shots at this and then the next raiser will put you all in.

The big question I guess is how often is someone dealt AA, KK, QQ on a ten player table when two of the J's are always given to you.

Of course it’s pretty obvious that I’m no math professor and these are just some of my thoughts, I have no idea how it would actually play out.

[Thythe]

I think 99% is hopelessly high also. Say you go all in with your set and get called. So now you're all in...what percent favorite are you here? 80-95% I imagine, but you'll face this percentage a lot of times in the tournament, can't avoid getting sucked out, and you'll never lay down top set on the flop. People will call, and they will suckout more than 1% of the time.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 99% is hopelessly high also. Say you go all in with your set and get called.

[/ QUOTE ]

The trick is to not go all-in- ever. You could even fold top set if somebody else went all-in. You're going to flop a set every orbit so you can be patient.

Pick up some small pots and avoid big confrontations until you have a much bigger stack than anybody else at the table.

[Cashcow]

I agree 100%. Why risk getting sucked out on an all in when you know you will have JJ every hand. Seems like a no brainer. I think 95% is pretty accurate, as long as you don't play it carelessly.

[m2smith2]

.

[astroglide]

not really related to this question, but i realized that if i were delat jacks every hand i would probably play them better than i do now. that is to say, i wouldn't be as excited or assume they would win as much as i normally do.

[MikeGuz]

Ironic you asked this question - I was in a live MTT and we were discussing getting AA every hand most of us agreed it would be hard to make the final table. Now some guy thinks you will WIN 95% of your tournaments with a miserable hand like JJ.

Guess it depends on how big a stack one would build early because he would be playing all the hands and as we all know AA or JJ for that matter does not win all the time. Not hardley.

[SaintAces]

simple

[paland]

I guess that this thread shows good and not-so-good players. The good players know to avoid all-ins (Which is true in real MTT's too) While the others think you wouldn't do too hot due to suckouts (They don't realize the value of smart playing the pair). If I had AA or JJ every hand, I don't see how I couldn't win the tournament.

[MikeGuz]

Really - now let's think about that - speaking as a guy who busted out of 8 tournaments at the carnival of poker with AA once back to back. All were pre flop all ins I couldn't avoid nor did I want to avoid.

SO you wouldn't go all in OK you will be folding to all ins when pre flop or on the flop. How are you going to bet these pairs. Will you call raises maybe multi raises back at you. On the flop will you be dumping your rockets to a draw or trips or an all in in case it's a set. I am trying to get a feel for your play here.

Sure knowing you will get AA next hand is a huge advantage but there is a lot of sharks to avoid on the way to a win.

I'd like to see some sims on this. It would be interesting.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Ironic you asked this question - I was in a live MTT and we were discussing getting AA every hand most of us agreed it would be hard to make the final table.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be nearly impossible for you to not win the tourney if you got AA every hand. It doesn't even really matter if others knew you got AA every hand or not.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
SO you wouldn't go all in OK you will be folding to all ins when pre flop or on the flop. How are you going to bet these pairs. Will you call raises maybe multi raises back at you. On the flop will you be dumping your rockets to a draw or trips or an all in in case it's a set. I am trying to get a feel for your play here.


[/ QUOTE ]

You'd still play plenty of all-in situations, It's just that you would be doing it against people that you have decently outchipped. You'd build your chips initially (and throughout) by either playing smallish pots against people with 2nd best hands by making smaller non-commital value-bets after the flop or picking up the blinds/antes. Also, you will run across shorter-stacked players even early in the tournament and bust them w/o risking too many of your chips. As the tournament progresses, this would be the primary way you add to your lead. If you double some players up, so be it, there will be no shortage of short-stacks in the mid-later stages of the tournament.

[MikeGuz]

Wrong just plain wrong. There is just no way to prove it but I'd bet a lot of money on it.

[Nottom]

The fact remains that if you simply pushed all-in everyhand with AA, nobody could do anything to stop you except suck-out. If they don't suck out if the 1st 1 or 2 tries you will soon have more chips and be safely stealing everybodies blinds everyhand.

This is a very basic strategy that should win fairly often IMO (although certainly not 99% of the time). If you don't want to put all your money in preflop, you can just see every flop cheaply and only play when you flop the nut set. Unlike with JJ, nobody can stop you from seeing the flop since you should never fold preflop with AA.

Am I missing something?

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
Ironic you asked this question - I was in a live MTT and we were discussing getting AA every hand most of us agreed it would be hard to make the final table. Now some guy thinks you will WIN 95% of your tournaments with a miserable hand like JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

here is what happens getting aa every time. You double up early a couple times and even when you do get beat, you still have 20x's the closest competetor. With JJ you win a ton of small pots never risking your stack, ever. 95% is probably too low, like he said. It should be 98-99%. With AA its got to be 99.0% at least.
btw, the "some guy" should read "the guy".

[MikeGuz]

Well some guy - you'd probably bust out the 1st hand.

LOL - some mutt is more like it.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
Well some guy - you'd probably bust out the 1st hand.

LOL - some mutt is more like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

rotfl. take it easy on him guys. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

*that is the point, I wouldn't risk all my chips on ANY hand(not even the first) and would NEVER be forced to go all in.

[kokothemonkey]

Who the hell would call an all-in by you preflop if they knew you had AA? If you had AA every hand, you go all-in and make them suck out. It'd probably be best to fold for the first few levels until the blinds were big enough to be worth stealing (see Sklansky and Tournament Poker for Advanced Players...this is his "system" on crack). If you don't win a tournament 99% of the time getting AA every hand then theres a problem.

[MikeGuz]

I have busted out of tournaments 4 times on the first hand with AA - I have seen it many more times - as a matter of fact I'd say my my biggest bust out hands are AAKKQQ and I'd bet most of you could say the same.

99.0% no way not even close.

[SA125]

Good point astro. JJ is the only loser for me from AA-88. I won't say it's bad luck. I think that it's not as easy to get away from as TT-88.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that it's not as easy to get away from as TT-88.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be a LOT easier if you knew it was coming again next hand.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I have busted out of tournaments 4 times on the first hand with AA - I have seen it many more times - as a matter of fact I'd say my my biggest bust out hands are AAKKQQ and I'd bet most of you could say the same.

99.0% no way not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

If an expert player knew he was getting AA on every hand and somebody put him all-in on the first hand of a tournament, the expert would fold.

The point some of you seem to be missing is that you will never be all-in if you play expertly. So, you can't bust out.

I've revising my estimate up (for both AA and JJ) to 99.9%.

[MikeGuz]

Wish you could be priven wrong but is is impossible - such a stupid thread I don't beleive I got involved - BTW even "experts" bust out all the time IF you ever meet one you just ask him.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW even "experts" bust out all the time IF you ever meet one you just ask him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but they don't get AA every hand either.

[jaybee_70]

pretty easy to prove. Get nine friends and deal them cards as expected, but always keep your AA.

Joe

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
Wish you could be priven wrong but is is impossible - such a stupid thread I don't beleive I got involved - BTW even "experts" bust out all the time IF you ever meet one you just ask him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly experts bust out, but what dynasty was pointing out was they avoid putting chips at risk at all cost in the early stages of a tourtment.

The reason for laying down aces to an all in is simple the only hands that you can put you oppent on is KK QQ JJ or some other pocket pair (maybe AK but its doubtful). Which makes you a 5 to 1 favorite. So 5 times youll double up to 20,000 meaningless chips (there meaningless, because they don't get you any closer to the money you will still need to double up at least 5 more times or so and play for many more hours, to even make the money) and one time youll be sent home down 10,000 dollars after a very short tourt experience.(or what ever the buyin)
(just a note I have folded aces 8 times to an allin preflop in the early stages of gigantic online tourts, this is because I know that i can wait for a better time to take there chips, when i have the stone cold nuts, or when there weak and will fold)

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
(just a note I have folded aces 8 times to an allin preflop in the early stages of gigantic online tourts, this is because I know that i can wait for a better time to take there chips, when i have the stone cold nuts, or when there weak and will fold)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure that's a good idea. But, if you know you're being dealt AA/JJ every hand, it's an obvious play.

I'm revising my estimate up again. It's now 99.95%.

How could you ever get knocked out of the tournament?

[Michael Davis]

AA vs KK is more like a 4-1 favorite.

I simply can't believe you've laid down aces that many times. In the early stages, how do you know your opponents are going to be so easy to push around that you can give up aces? You only have to win the first one and now you've got more chips than everyone else.

-Michael

[Ulysses]

You can obviously read, so I'm really surprised you can't understand how correct Dynasty is and how wrong you are.

[Ulysses]

You won't do well in tournaments playing like that.

[kokothemonkey]

Folding AA preflop is retarded. If you know you're going to be a huge favorite and have a chance to double up, which is key in tournaments, you do it. When else are you gonna be such a favorite? You know you're gonna have to win some coinflips later in the tournament...the more you build early, the fewer risks you have to take later.

[Atropos]

"How could you ever get knocked out of the tournament?"

Well quite easily if I'm at your table. After 5 hands or so I would immediately start screaming: "omg look at this, he is a known pro from vegas and gets AA every hand. that's not fair" and I would convince the other players to go all-in every hand. Against 9 all-ins your AA will win only 33% /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ZeeJustin]

I'm loling @ "meaningless chips" right now.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm loling @ "meaningless chips" right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I thought that was pretty funny as well. I've been lucky enought to win a few biggish (thought granted smallish stakes) MTTs online and every one of them started with me accumulating those meaningless chips before the first break.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm revising my estimate up again. It's now 99.95%.

How could you ever get knocked out of the tournament?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming we're talking about a deep stack tournament like the wsop. If you were referring to "the average tournament", you would be flat out wrong ad not even close (if the avg stack is 10x BB, you won't be able to do much outplaying).

In the WSOP you start out with 200 big blinds. This is plenty to work with, and blinds don't increase all that quickly. Most of the pots would be heads up or three way on the flop, and you could easily avoid all-in confrontations, at the beginning at least. What happens when you're stack is monstrous, but the other stacks are not? There will be a lot of small stack all-ins for say 20x BB. When this starts happening, you lose about 90% of your edge. Your jacks will usually be flipping, and will only be ahead slightly more often than they are behind.

Ok, so I just rambled on needlessly. Basically, all I'm saying is that I think you are overestimating the stack sizes in a tournament.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming we're talking about a deep stack tournament like the wsop. If you were referring to "the average tournament", you would be flat out wrong ad not even close (if the avg stack is 10x BB, you won't be able to do much outplaying).

[/ QUOTE ]

what tournaments do you play where the starting stack is only 10x's the bb. In a party tournament that everybody starts with 1000 chips, the blinds start at 5-10.(i think, i haven't played a tourney there in a while)

[ZeeJustin]

Look at any Party or Stars tournament 3 hours in and the avg stack will be less than 10x BB. I recently won a live $50 + $20 rebuy tournament at Turning Stone. At no less than 3 seperate times in the tournament, I was the chip leader with less than 10x BB.

[bogey]

[ QUOTE ]

(just a note I have folded aces 8 times to an allin preflop in the early stages of gigantic online tourts, this is because I know that i can wait for a better time to take there chips, when i have the stone cold nuts, or when there weak and will fold)

[/ QUOTE ]

and how many of those have you actually done well in?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at any Party or Stars tournament 3 hours in and the avg stack will be less than 10x BB. I recently won a live $50 + $20 rebuy tournament at Turning Stone. At no less than 3 seperate times in the tournament, I was the chip leader with less than 10x BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to be dealt AA/JJ for three hours before this happens. If you can't build up a big stack after getting dealt AA/JJ 150+ times, I don't know what advice to give you.

[SossMan]

Amazing how a little "knowledge" can really hurt someone when they don't know how to apply it.
I can't see EVER losing except maybe if I flop quads and get all in early and someone makes a st.flush. Otherwise, why would you ever risk your chips early?
And by the time anyone gives you a bad all in beat, you will have the field outchipped 10:1.
If played correctly, how can a competent player lose??
As for heads up, you should have like a 10:1 chip lead, so you could simply wait to flop a set every time and win.

[Yeknom58]

Once it's heads up why in the world would you wait to flop a set? I would just go all in preflop every hand.

[Michael Davis]

It definitely depends on the blinds here. I don't think you really want to be all-in against A2. You are definitely cutting down your chances of winning the tournament unless your opponent is moving all-in with an appetite.

-Michael

[blackaces13]

Yeah this is obvous. You could staple the AA to your forehead and march straight through to the final table (and 1st place)by simply going all in on every hand. Assuming you win the fist couple of hands or steal enough blinds you'd have an utterly ridiculous stack and you'd be a HUGE favorite to win everytime a flop came down.

[Alexthegreat]

I think the main point that everyone is missing is the idea that you will be dealt AA every hand......If you are getting AA every hand, why would you go all in with it on the first hand...or any hand for that matter...like dynasty and diablo said....you just have to play it expertly.....pick up the small pots early, build up a huge stack, and then pick off all the medium stacks when you flop sets......If someone went all in preflop on the first hand, if would be the easiest fold you ever made.....I don't see what is so hard to understand about this...suck outs can't possibly hurt you if you play it correctly....

If you played it correctly, you'd win 100% of the time

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are getting AA every hand, why would you go all in with it on the first hand...or any hand for that matter...like dynasty and diablo said....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, obviously ... I was just saying that even if you played them like a monkey I would expect to win probably 50% of the time becasue someone made the ridiculous claim that you couldn't win if you had AA everyhand.