Trying Out That Turn Thing

[StellarWind]

Party 2/4 (10 players)

Seems like a passive table based on a few hands since I sat down. I don't know any of the key players.

Hero is Button with T /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif. MP2 posts $2.

Preflop : MP1 calls, MP2 checks, CO calls, Hero Raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop : (10.5 SB) 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue"> (5 players) </font>
BB bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero Calls.

Turn : (7.75 BB) K /images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue"> (5 players) </font>
BB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero folds ...

[Louie Landale]

And your question is ? ... I tend to routinely flail away, but calling the flop to see how things develop on the turn has a lot of merit. Worked out pretty good here, since had you raised the flop you would probably have gotton check-raised on the turn. Also, if a small card comes you can get in a desirable raise on the turn.

The problem is that players [1] are more likely to bet the flop than the turn, and [2] more likely to call the flop than the turn. If you flat call its reasonably likely you'll get just one call on the turn, and that cost you the 4sb you would have gotton had you raised the flop.

Tough call. Be more inclined to slow play against assertive folks; less likely against typical weak-loose LL players.

- Louie

[StellarWind]

n/m.

[Eihli]

I think a flop raise is the right play here because 1. The pot is small and 2. You are only facing 3 opponents.

[J.R.]

There are 14 small bets on the flop when the action gets to stellar, so nobody is folding getting big odds if stellar raises and there are a lot of turn cards that will make stellar's play of the hand difficult/questionable. The flop call lets him get out of trouble if the turn is a scare card or someone decloaks (although the turn facing a bet and raise is tough if its a small card as the doubt over whether the turn raiser is trying to move out stellar's presumed big cards or has a big hand may put stellar in a tough spot).

Also, the bb's bet implies a good draw or strong hand, most mediocre hands would often chose to check-raise form the bb in this spot so waiting to see what develops on the turn may not be bad. This isn't a pot manipulating technique to deny people odds as much as it is don't push a thin, reverse implied type edge if you can wait and either 1) escape unscathed or 2) leverage a bigger EV edge on the big bet streets.

[Lost Wages]

The problem here is your position relative to the bettor. If you just call the flop bet and the BB bets the turn, then the other two guys have already decided if they are going to continue by the time you get to act so you can't protect your hand on the turn either.

It worked out well for you in this instance but, let's face it, how often are you going to be folding the turn? There really aren't any safe cards that can come. Any card below a ten makes a straight and any card above a ten is an overcard to your pair.

I would raise the flop. Hopefully it will be checked to you on the turn and you can bet. If checkraised, then you can call or fold depending on the circumstances. If your turn bet is just called then you may get a free showdown if you need it.

Lost Wages

[chesspain]

As J.R. opines, there doesn't appear to be much upside in pumping this flop when no one is folding, and your reverse implied odds suck. I would just call here, and rely on my position and my instincts to guide me on the final two streets.

[nepenthe]

Well done.

[Eihli]

What if the pot were smaller, if there were 3 people in and 8 small bets to you on the flop?

[StellarWind]

BB folded the turn. Good idea /images/graemlins/cool.gif.

MP1 produced AKo for TPTK. It's always safest not to raise until you make your hand /images/graemlins/wink.gif. Unless of course it's too late ...

MP2 flopped the nuts: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Hitting his runner-runner flush on the river was actually bad luck /images/graemlins/blush.gif, but of course his hand held up anyway /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Thanks for the comments.

[bernie]

There's 4 opponents. By the time he gets to act, there is no way to protect his hand here. The call is 14-1 to him. No one is going to be forced to call 2 cold.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem here is your position relative to the bettor. If you just call the flop bet and the BB bets the turn, then the other two guys have already decided if they are going to continue by the time you get to act so you can't protect your hand on the turn either.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you can sure charge the hell out of them for drawing. Ruining their effective odds with 1 card to come. A turn raise is much better than raising the flop here. You're not protecting anything with a flop raise.

b

[bernie]

Then the 1st caller to your raise is getting 9-1 on his call. Which he can call quite a bit of stuff with. The main problem is you position in regards to the bettor.

b

[Eihli]

I know nobody is going to fold, but if overcards were barely getting odds to draw for 1 bet, you make a lot of money by charging them 2. More than you would get by waiting for the turn. If the pot were bigger overcards would have better odds and you wouldn't be able cost them as much money by raising.

[bernie]

Overcards are getting 15-1 to call. How much bigger do you think it needs to be before thinking about waiting to the turn? What isn't getting the odds to call this flop raise? Not much.

Yes, betting the flop here is a value bet. But you make more waiting for the turn in this case. Your value goes up quite a bit.

b

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I know nobody is going to fold, but if overcards were barely getting odds to draw for 1 bet, you make a lot of money by charging them 2. More than you would get by waiting for the turn. If the pot were bigger overcards would have better odds and you wouldn't be able cost them as much money by raising.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a mathematically incorrect statement. The pot size has no bearing on how much money I make when they call an extra bet.

If I bet $1 and you call with a 25% winning chance, at the end of the hand I have a 75% chance of collecting an extra $2 from the pot. I just made $0.50 by my bet. This is independent of whether the current pot contains two cents or a million dollars.

Of course this is my profit if they call. If the pot is small enough that they do not have odds to draw, they can lose less than $0.50 by folding. But overcards do have odds to call one more so that doesn't apply here.