Perspective

[Veloso]

Oh my God you won't believe this!

I was at my weekly home game, and got this insane run of cards. UTG, I'm dealt K/images/graemlins/spade.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, so I fold. In the big blind I'm dealt J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/heart.gif and am forced out by a raise. In the small blind, I get K/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and fold. On the button, I get Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif, raise it, and get two callers. Then the flop comes -- get this -- Q/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/heart.gif!!

I thought I trusted my friends, but this is too much. I'm not very good at probability, and when I tried to figure out these odds on my pocket calculator, it just says '0', which I don't think is right. But I asked my cousin (and he takes Calculus even!) and he says the odds of this happening are just about sixty million billion to one. /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Is my cousin right about the odds here? He's pretty good with numbers, but I hate to admit my friends have been cheating me. Have any of you seen this happen before? Should I just stop playing with my ex-friends, or should I report them to the police?

[Lost Wages]

I had a similar experience.

Link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=628543&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

Lost Wages

[jtr]

You're obviously just running very well. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Wait until you hit the wall.

[scottjack]

Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's just trying to make fun of the people that discuss unusually favourable or unfavourable sequences of cards dealt. but he has a very weak understanding of probability and is failing to make any point at all.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's just trying to make fun of the people that discuss unusually favourable or unfavourable sequences of cards dealt. but he has a very weak understanding of probability and is failing to make any point at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the odds really are 60 million billion to 1 against getting those exact hands in that order and then those cards on the flop. 60.594076046649599 million billion to 1 to be exact.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's just trying to make fun of the people that discuss unusually favourable or unfavourable sequences of cards dealt. but he has a very weak understanding of probability and is failing to make any point at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the odds really are 60 million billion to 1 against getting those exact hands in that order and then those cards on the flop. 60.594076046649599 million billion to 1 to be exact.

[/ QUOTE ]

i realize the odds are long, but those hands have no real significance. the probability of having those exact cards dealt OR cards of similar significance is something like 99.99%.

he's implying that being dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, and A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />

he's implying that being dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, and A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

[/ QUOTE ]


and somehow, he's right.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

he's implying that being dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, and A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

[/ QUOTE ]


and somehow, he's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

tell me when the last time you were dealt the same 2 aces 4 hands in a row was, and i'll believe that it's not unusual.

[tubbyspencer]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]

he's implying that being dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, and A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

[/ QUOTE ]


and somehow, he's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

tell me when the last time you were dealt the same 2 aces 4 hands in a row was, and i'll believe that it's not unusual.

[/ QUOTE ]

For me it was roughly 60 million billion hands ago.

[Officer Farva]

[ QUOTE ]
For me it was roughly 60 million billion hands ago.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL
Got to love math humor...

[Veloso]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually, the odds really are 60 million billion to 1 against getting those exact hands in that order and then those cards on the flop. 60.594076046649599 million billion to 1 to be exact.

[/ QUOTE ]

i realize the odds are long, but those hands have no real significance. the probability of having those exact cards dealt OR cards of similar significance is something like 99.99%.

he's implying that being dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, and A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry you disagree with me, but this is in fact almost -- but not quite -- what I'm saying. I'm not saying that getting the two black aces four times in a row is nothing unusual. It would be astoundingly unusual. I'm just saying it would be equally astoundingly unusual for you to see K/images/graemlins/spade.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif followed by J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/heart.gif followed by K/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif followed by Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

With odds this long, if you get dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif four times in a row, you've got to seriously consider there's something dishonest going on... the odds that the deck is being stacked in your friendly game with friends you trust are low, but much much larger than the odds of this series of hands being dealt to you legitimately. But! If you get dealt my exact sequence the first four hands in your next home game, you've got to just as seriously consider your friends are having a little fun with you.

Now, their joke would only work if you cared enough about this thread to remember my sequence of hands. I'd wager that you don't.

But that's the point, isn't it? There's nothing special about the aces except that they are good cards in Hold 'Em (but the cards don't know that!), and that you're very much more likely to remember the aces, aces, aces, aces sequence of cards if it happens. The pattern matching and emotional parts of your brain would kick into high gear, and you'd remember it, and then later -- if you're one of the people I'm complaining about -- post a message here marveling on just how darn unlikely it had to be and can't someone here who's better at math calculate the number for me so we can all see how small it is?

This example is really hyperbolic, because 60-million-billion-to-one odds really are pretty ridiculous. But people post here all the time about their one-in-a-million odds situations, as though something really miraculous was happening around them. One-in-a-million happenings are commonplace! Every now and again, one of them tickles our pattern matching and emotional brain centers, and we get all goofy, and we start dumb bulletin board threads. The trick is: there have to be thousands of different unlikely poker scenarios that evoke emotion and pattern matching in our human minds. If you sit at a poker table for several hours a week, then one of these scenarios will happen. It's only a matter of time. It just might be a series of aces, but it's more likely to be one of the other thousands of these noticable scenarios.

But when someone's nut flush gets bested by rivered boats three times in a session, the question of how likely that entire scenario was is such an irrelevant and boring question, I can't help but get annoyed when people actually ask. I guess I just need to get a thicker skin, but I do enjoy ranting so. The interesting and useful questions sound like: "given my opponent's bets in the hand so far, his style of play, and the fact that the board is paired, what's a good estimate of the odds that he has two pair or trips on the turn? How many of my potential outs are partially dead? How dead are they? If he hits the boat and I hit my flush, I'll have to pay him off on the river, costing me an extra bet... so do I still have pot odds to call the turn?" But these aren't usually the questions people ask.

[jtr]

Nicely put Veloso. Contrary to an earlier poster's impression of you, I'd say your understanding of probability was pretty damn sound.

All the best,
--JTR.

[stinkypete]

okay, i'll take back what i said about your understanding of probability. your latest post demonstrated that you do, in fact, understand, and i agree with the things you said.

you failed to make your point in your first post though, and there are a lot of people on this board that use the "HHHHHHHHHH is just as likely as THHTHTTHTH" argument the wrong way, so i wrongly assumed you were one of them. i apologize.

[QuikSand]

Excellent post, and very lucid follow-up, Veloso.
(And gee, I even "got it" before the explanation!)

[cardcounter0]

This is just another example that the random number generator in B&amp;M poker is rigged!!!!

[Cerril]

Well then you're due for it to happen again! Sometime in the next couple &lt;exponent deleted&gt;

[geek]

A workmate of mine purchased a power ball ticket with his "special" numbers once when we were out at lunch. I asked why he doesn't just pick 1,2,3,4,5 with a power ball of 6.
His reply, "Get real, those numbers will NEVER happen."