Review of 1st 100 10+1s/Lessons Learned (Long)

[parappa]

Hi all,

After playing a couple of hundred 5+1s and convincing myself that I wasn't going to go broke, I sat down and played 100 10+1s at party.

Stats are:

Played: 100
ROI: 35.5%
ITM: 51.0%

Finishes:
1-9
2-20
3-22
4-12
5-11
6-9
7-8
8-1
9-4
10-4

Gross Profit-$390
Profit/Tourney-$3.90
SD/Tourney-$16.46
Hrs-74.9
$/hr-$5.20
Avg Finish-4.1
Winning Confidence 98%

I'm happy with my results, but the small number of wins is extremely worrying. From 4 players left, I'm ITM 81% of the time, but only headsup 46% and only winning 14%. From 3 left, I'm getting it headsup 56.9% (should be 66.7%) and winning 17.6 (should be 33.3). From Headsup I'm only winning 31%.

So, I went to pokertracker and just reviewed them all. Here's what I learned, which is probably familiar to most, but some of it was news to me:

1. Often, when I make a pot-sized bet on the flop with TPTK, and that bet is called, I don't even bother trying to think about what my opponent could have, and end up pushing on the turn with holdings that turn out to be marginal.

2. I'm getting desparate much too early, like before the 50/100 level, and I'm making silly pushes.

3. I'm losing a lot of chips with AQ.

4. I'm not being careful enough with QQ-TT.

5. I'm making steal-raises from the big blind into limpers. This never, ever works. Even if I push, they won't fold.

6. I'm playing much too tight shorthanded. I'm making up silly tactical reasons for not playing hands, when the truth is that I secretly want to fold my way into the money and never have to put my chips at risk.

7. I'm folding medium aces to steal raises on the button way too often.

8. I'm probably folding on the flop to an autobet too often.

9. I'm not shifting gears quickly enough. I'm typically not looking to steal until 150/300, and I really need to start at the 50/100 or 100/200 level. I folded A6-AT on the button right after my 50/100 blinds on like 10 occasions. When I made the play, I stole the blinds 5 of 6 times.

10. I'm finding it difficult to face that I'm not going to win without luck. I'm waiting too long to gamble. If I were to gamble with a good hand with a stack that is twice as big, I'm in a position to win if it comes off. If my stack is 1/2 as big, I'm in a position to fight into the money.

11. I'm only stealing the blinds when desperate. The usual pattern is: I drift down to 500 chips, I get aggressive and steal a couple of sets of blinds. This puts me back up to 1000 and I begin folding playable hands until I'm at 500 again.

12. I have learned: Fold your way into the money (that is, fold playable hands in the hope someone else will go broke) only when the bubble guy will be forced all-in by the blinds in the next orbit. More than one set of blinds is too much at any stack size.

Pokertracker and the Aleo Spreadsheet (though beautifully improved by others) were very very useful in learning where I'm at, and I would've had no hope of plugging these leaks were it not for these tools.

The current plan is to play another 100 10+1s and see if results improve. I think I'll end up playing 1000 games at this level. I'm extremely happy with my bankroll growth and have no pretensions about playing at a higher level.

Any and all comments welcome.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
7. I'm folding medium aces to steal raises on the button way too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's funny, I have a Poker Track hand analysis set up for 4 handed in and SnG and medium Aces were the hands that was killing me.
I stopped playing anything less than AJ 4 handed if the pot was raised AND my stack was not less than 8 BB's and my ITM improved. (unless the raiser was stealing *too much* then I might move in on him)

I'm not saying you are wrong, I just find this fact interesting.

IMHO If you are ITM 51% in the $10, then you should be just as successful in the $20's, and you $/hr will improve dramatically.

If your bankroll can handle it and you are mentally ready (i.e. won't play scared:weak/tight) you should move up.

regards,
woodguy

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
That's funny, I have a Poker Track hand analysis set up for 4 handed in and SnG and medium Aces were the hands that was killing me.
I stopped playing anything less than AJ 4 handed if the pot was raised AND my stack was not less than 8 BB's and my ITM improved. (unless the raiser was stealing *too much* then I might move in on him)

I'm not saying you are wrong, I just find this fact interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]


That's definitely food for thought. I don't have a really strong opinion about this, I just think that I'm not defending my blinds enough and that this is a good place to start.

I am much more sure, though, that I should be stealing from the button with medium aces. Would you generally agree with that?

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO If you are ITM 51% in the $10, then you should be just as successful in the $20's, and you $/hr will improve dramatically.

If your bankroll can handle it and you are mentally ready (i.e. won't play scared:weak/tight) you should move up.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Maybe I'll try one or two to see if there's a big difference. The problem is that when a hit a bad streak I begin to question whether it's my luck or my game (it's probably both in most cases), and I think that I'd like the security blanket of significant winning results at a certain level so that I _know_ (as opposed to have a strong belief that gets shaken during bad runs) that my basic game will win at x level.

[compsolv]

[ QUOTE ]

2. I'm getting desparate much too early, like before the 50/100 level, and I'm making silly pushes.



[/ QUOTE ]

First of all - thanks so much for this excellent post.

I am now starting to scrutinize my play via Poker Tracker as well - and I am anxious to see my play improve. Also - congrats on your results.

While I do not have 100 tournaments yet of results (in Poker Tracker at least) - your number of 10, 9, 8 finishes did jump out at me. Those numbers seem high . . .I think when you tighten up a bit early as you should - exiting the tournament this early is never going to happen to you . . .or very, very rarely. I am guessing I have played at least 75 of the things at levels from 6 to 50 and I have finished in those spots only once or twice.

[MercTec]

It looks like you're bubble play is pretty solid based solely on finishes. I would focus more on heads up. In your heads up matches, are you coming in as the short stack more often than not? Whats you're general game plan when playing HU?

~30 heads up matches is a pretty small sample so those numbers can be deceiving. I went through a streak of bad beats while playing heads up which would throw off a sample size like that.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
While I do not have 100 tournaments yet of results (in Poker Tracker at least) - your number of 10, 9, 8 finishes did jump out at me. Those numbers seem high

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is true. Some of the hands are leaks that I've since plugged (like drawing to flushes, etc), some are lucky hands in the big blind that lost, some are premium hands that lost.

Here's the breakdown on 17 finishes 7-10:

3 Pushed AA preflop and was called and beaten.
2 Pushed KK preflop and was called and beaten.
2 Pushed QQ preflop and was called and beaten.
1 Pushed JJ preflop and was beaten
1 Pushed AKs preflop and lost (8-handed with high blinds and me on 8xbb)
2 pushed with AQ after flopping an ace.
2 Chased with AK after flopping overcards.
1 Overplayed Top Pair on scary flop
1 Idiotic all-in with straight draw and pair
1 all-in call with 4-flush
1 tight-weak set laydown on first hand left me with 100ish chips

I'm expecting this number to go down as well, as I don't call big flop bets with draws anymore, am folding AQ most of the time, and am playing QQ and JJ much more cautiously. I'm still going to get beaten with AA and KK, and my 2 pairs and TPTKs are still going to lose me all my chips once in a while, but I think that this 17 will probably end up at like 10 or so.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that I'd like the security blanket of significant winning results at a certain level so that I _know_ (as opposed to have a strong belief that gets shaken during bad runs) that my basic game will win at x level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, you have 98% winning confidence! What more do you want!

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like you're bubble play is pretty solid based solely on finishes. I would focus more on heads up. In your heads up matches, are you coming in as the short stack more often than not? Whats you're general game plan when playing HU?

~30 heads up matches is a pretty small sample so those numbers can be deceiving. I went through a streak of bad beats while playing heads up which would throw off a sample size like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is clearly a problem for me but I don't know if it's a sample size issue or a bad play issue. Given the basic advice to "settle for 3rd, gamble for 1st" combined with "when blinds are 10% or more stacks, push with your top 75% and call with your top 30%", I'm basically going hog-wild from the time I hit the money. I'm usually coming in as the shorter stack, and I'd say that I manage to catch up in 50% of the headsup matches. I just don't seem to win enough of them after I catch up. I'm considering slowing down once I have more than 10xbb in my stack, but it doesn't seem to happen that often and I"m not sure it would change that many of my results.

I'm not nuts about all-in or fold headsup, and my results don't seem to be that great with it, but they _are_ better than when I was playing by instinct, so I'm just doing wait-and-see right now.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
1 Idiotic all-in with straight draw and pair

[/ QUOTE ]

Just one comment: if this was on the flop, it definitely wasn't idiotic. You're a favorite against TPTK and holding your own against anything short of top pair/same draw. I've all in'ed/called all in on pair+draw hands many times and was the favorite HU/3 way in almost all of them.

Otherwise...I forget where the HU winning percentages hand chart is, but definitely take a look at that. Eastbay's top 70 raise/top 30 call is also really valuable once you memorize his charts.

[tallstack]

Hi parappa,

Thanks for posting the stats, and congratulations on the great results. FWIW, I have a couple of comments based on your analysis.
[ QUOTE ]
I'm playing much too tight shorthanded. I'm making up silly tactical reasons for not playing hands, when the truth is that I secretly want to fold my way into the money and never have to put my chips at risk.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is something that you just have to get over. While you can play very safe and float into the money often in the $10s, this will be harder and harder each level you move up. Even in the $10s you know it is costing you opportunities to finish first.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm only stealing the blinds when desperate. The usual pattern is: I drift down to 500 chips, I get aggressive and steal a couple of sets of blinds. This puts me back up to 1000 and I begin folding playable hands until I'm at 500 again.

[/ QUOTE ]

While you obviously have to steal blinds when you are desperate, this will be the most likely time to get called. You will have greater success stealing when you have a larger stack and people can be busted out by you if they call. Try stealing much more based on the situation (your position, tightness of blinds, stack size of blinds – medium stacks are the favorite targets) and less on your cards. Steal because you can, not only because you have to.

[ QUOTE ]
The current plan is to play another 100 10+1s and see if results improve. I think I'll end up playing 1000 games at this level. I'm extremely happy with my bankroll growth and have no pretensions about playing at a higher level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do not play 1000 more games at this level. This would be like taking grade three 10 more times when you passed it the first time. I recommend moving up to the $20s much sooner than this if your bankroll is healthy. You will likely not find them much harder to beat, and you will likely learn more from the slightly better level of your opponents. The simple facts that you are beating this level and you are still focusing hard on how to improve mean that you will undoubtedly have the skill and determination to beat the $20s. You can always move back down if you feel uncomfortable.

Dave S

[Gator]

Really excellent post. I second the voices recommending you move up. I recommend $30's. If you are ITM 40%+ of the time (51%) in your case, then this makes a lot of sense.

Try this - instead of saying you want to have a bankroll of 30 or 50 buyins - take $99 (3 buyins) and experiment with that. If you go 3 straight tourneys without moneying, move back to tens - else, just use that separate $99 bankroll (plus what you win from it) to fund this experiment.

You can afford to lose $99 (if you go 0 for 3). My guess, based on your results and thoughtful post, is that you will never look back.

Good luck.

[morello]

Just based on your well written post I think you should have no problems adjusting to a higher limit. Don't wait until you've played 1000 SNGs. You'll be destined to stay stuck in low-limit hell for the rest of your career.

Ever wonder why some people that have 6months of playing experience are beating the $200 SNGs or the 30-60 limit games? It's because they moved up when they knew they could.

[ QUOTE ]
6. I'm playing much too tight shorthanded. I'm making up silly tactical reasons for not playing hands, when the truth is that I secretly want to fold my way into the money and never have to put my chips at risk.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your opponents are thinking the same thing. It becomes a game of chicken. Don't be afraid to finish on the bubble.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I am much more sure, though, that I should be stealing from the button with medium aces. Would you generally agree with that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. Good hands to steal/raise with, I just hate calling with them if I'm not in chip trouble.

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. Maybe I'll try one or two to see if there's a big difference. The problem is that when a hit a bad streak I begin to question whether it's my luck or my game (it's probably both in most cases), and I think that I'd like the security blanket of significant winning results at a certain level so that I _know_ (as opposed to have a strong belief that gets shaken during bad runs) that my basic game will win at x level.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are not confident, do not do it.
I found early on when I moved up a level I played too weak/tight and got killed.
You must be confident and play your "A" game, or don't do it.
Play a few with your "A" game and you will see that there really is no discernable difference. (again IMHO)

I equate confidence with playing a good aggressive game. If you just call or limp a bunch of hands to see if you flop big, you will bleed chips and lose.

Another interesting Poker Tracker stat I found (I have over 30 different set up for SnG hand analysis, I'm a bit of junkie when it comes to that stuff) is this:
My win rate with THE EXACT SAME HANDS goes up 30% if I bring it in with a raise compared to calling.
When I read that stat it blew me away. Now I almost always bring it in for a raise. If I feel I can't raise, I fold. (exceptions in late position and PP's of course)

That's why you should make sure you are playing the $20's with confidence and play your A game.

regards,
woodguy

[donny5k]

You need to be a LOT more aggressive shorthanded not just a little bit. Basically raise with any hand better than KTo and any ace in an unraised pot. If you are having trouble raising A9suited on the button then you are very very very weak tight.

[donny5k]

I disagree and think he should stay at the $10+1's for a while and learn more aggression. Certainly he will win at $20+2 but he doesn't even know his own game yet.

[tubbyspencer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1 Idiotic all-in with straight draw and pair

[/ QUOTE ]

Just one comment: if this was on the flop, it definitely wasn't idiotic. You're a favorite against TPTK and holding your own against anything short of top pair/same draw. I've all in'ed/called all in on pair+draw hands many times and was the favorite HU/3 way in almost all of them.



[/ QUOTE ]

I've been using the CardPlayer Poker Odds Calculator(not the end all and be all, I know), and I can't make a pair + OESD a favorite over TPTK. Add a four flush, and it's a favorite. But just the pair and straight draw seems to be a dog.

Can anyone give me an example where pair + straight draw(no 4 flush) is a favorite over TPTK?

[Jurollo]

I hate to rain on everyone's parade but here are a few thoughts I have for parappa to think about.

1) 100 is a really small sample of SNGs

2) I think many folks here would agree they have had a stretch with numbers close to what you had in your 100 over a random 100

3) I think you addressed this as a problem already but it seems you are just trying to hang around till the money, while the $20's might not be significantly harder than the $10's talent-wise you do run into a lot more tight aggressive players than you do in the $10's so more players are around later in the tourney. For you this might be a recipe for disaster as you have even coined your shorthanded game as inadequate.

4) I think jumping to the $30's is utterly foolish advice. A bankroll of around $900 is needed for the $30's and after only 100 in the $10's you cant exactly be sure as to what you should expect in other levels, let alone maintaining a 50% ITM. That is absurd, as even the best players can't achieve that.

5) I am, although it may not seem like it, very impressed by your stats, but another 100 in the $10's could be very profitable for you as it gives you the best chances to tighten up your shorthanded game.

6)The winning confidence seems off to me at 98%. While mathematically it may be correct you have to think of it like this. 22/100 you barely made it into final 3, even a few of those changing into 4ths could have dramatically changed your ITM, ROI, etc.


IMHO, I would suggest playing another 100 in the $10's before doing anything too drastic. You will be able to become more sure of yourself as a player and work on the problems you have identified. After this, barring any setbacks I would move up to the $20's first, then eventually continue up the ladder. Keep in mind too to keep approximately 30 buyins in your BR, as it is the quick and dirty number to recude your ROR (risk of ruin) to a reasonable number. Hope these insights help you out and good luck in the future! Keep us posted on your progress.

[parappa]

Thanks to everyone who responded for all of the great advice! As far as level goes, I am going to hang around in the 10+1s for another 100 games and then reassess--I'm just making too many mistakes that I know about and can fix. It makes sense to stay at a level where I know others are making them too while I iron them out. It doesn't take me that long to play 100 (a week and a half?), and it seems like a worthwhile apprenticeship. But I am going to, as mentioned by Aleomagus in a different post, work treating myself once in a while to a higher level game into my bankroll growth.

Thanks, everyone!