short stacked AQ in BB, push or stop n go??

[THaDoCTa]

I have a feeling I played this hand wrong.. any comments or thoughts appreciated, thanks.

Stars 10 rebuy, 630 entries and about 80 left. 20 more to the money, blinds are 1500/3000 and I have exactly 30k (avg is about 44k). The CO has me covered by about 6-7k, and raises to 12k. I have a feeling that he's on a medium pair, 10s or below. I'm in the BB with AQo and say screw it and push, since I am trying to keep my stack size big enough to get pretty far instead of creep into the money. He calls and shows 99s, I flop a gutshot and miss everything. Considering that I ended up having a pretty accurate read, should I have played this differently? I thought about flat calling, which would leave me with about 18k, and then pushing if any paint flopped. Would this have been a better play? Any comments or suggestions appreciated, thanks.

[fatduck]

I think you have a decent idea here, as if your read is correct a flat call gives you two extra outs (K or J) as someone holding nines would be hard pressed to call an all in on a flop like K 10 3. If you're willing to trust your read and push on any flop with an overcard to what you believe his pair to be then I think it's a good play. If he's really holding something like KQ and calls you then so beat it you were beaten anyway.

[faxwoods]

if you thought he was on a med pair 10s or below, why dont you just call and see the flop? if it doesnt help you, you can still get away from it.

[fnurt]

Your idea is fine if you knew he had a medium pair, but I don't see any basis for your "feeling." It's amazing how everyone with a pair "puts" the raiser on overcards, but the guy with AQ never puts the raiser on AK.

The fact is that the cutoff would open-raise with a lot of hands here. You have to figure your hand is better than his range of hands, and you have too much folding equity to use the stop-and-go. I would push preflop here.

[betgo]

Push is the only move. There is no reason to think the cutoff has a strong hand. Unless you have ESP, there is no reason to put him on a pp or any other hand. He could have Ax. AQ plays well allin. Your opponent is probably too pot committed to fold even if he is stealing. However, get your money in with what you think is the best hand.

[patrick dicaprio]

it is IMHO almost always wrong to push in in this situation with AQ. why would you risk all of you rchips against a raiser who is almost alwyas going to be ahead of you and if he is behind it isnt by much. it is one thing to be the pusher but to go all in here with AQ is asking for trouble.

Pat

[THaDoCTa]

With only 10X the big blind left, theres not much time left to wait for a better spot. Considering the CO had about the same size stack as I did, there is a wide range of hands that he would have raised with, with only AA AK KK (and QQ) the ones that had me in trouble. Getting that low on chips I was ready to take a coinflip since I wasn't catching anything bigger than AQ..

[fnurt]

?!? For someone to open with a raise from the cutoff seat, you think he almost always has better than AQ?!?

[donny5k]

Maybe if he calls the all-in re-raise he almost always does have a better hand, but there's plenty of folding equity if he has a hand like KJ (which would be an almost mandatory steal hand).

[THaDoCTa]

um.. at blinds 1500/3000 and a 25k stack, folded to him in the CO??? no..

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I think this is relatively close between pushing now and using the stop-and-go. Because you are approaching the money, I would probably use the stop-and-go. The advantage of this play is it wins more often, and the disadvantage is that it wins less on average when it does win. However, this combination makes it the "safer" play, and therefore I would pick it at this point.

However, don't just push in when any paint flops. Push in whatever flops. The only exception would be if you flop a truly monster hand, in which case you might prefer to slowplay.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is relatively close between pushing now and using the stop-and-go. Because you are approaching the money, I would probably use the stop-and-go. The advantage of this play is it wins more often, and the disadvantage is that it wins less on average when it does win. However, this combination makes it the "safer" play, and therefore I would pick it at this point.

However, don't just push in when any paint flops. Push in whatever flops. The only exception would be if you flop a truly monster hand, in which case you might prefer to slowplay.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for saving me the keystrokes.

Good analysis, as always.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Your idea is fine if you knew he had a medium pair, but I don't see any basis for your "feeling." It's amazing how everyone with a pair "puts" the raiser on overcards, but the guy with AQ never puts the raiser on AK.


[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty easy to be conditioned to put your opponent on a specific hand seconds after he shows it to you.

[Synth]

this is a very player dependent situation which plays down to the hands you think he's holding to the hands you think he'll call you with.
If the player is a tight player that doesn't like to get involved in to many pots unless he is confident with his hand but would occasionally steal when a player is weak then I would push. If the player is a loose player pre-flop but not a calling maniac on the flop then I would use the stop n go and push on any flop.

- Synth

[gergery]

Most people who raise 4xbb when that is a third of their stack tend to have good hands. I’d think a stealer raises to 7.5k-9k, unless you’ve seen different ‘typical’ raises from him. 12k seems more designed to invite action from weaker pair or Ax. He also would be calling 18k to win 46k, so I’d think just about any hand worth a raise, even a steal raise, would call.

I’d think you’d see weaker aces here often enough to offset the times you’ll be a sizable dog, and the overlay is enough to make it worth playing.

I’ll agree with Fossilman that stopn go sounds good. (how’s that for going out on a limb?)

--Greg