Limit Tournament

[Rduke55]

Hi, I have a question about my play in a $30+3 Limit HE tournament on Party Poker.
I play 3-table NL tournaments primarily and this was my 3rd "big" tournament. This is also my first post so it'll be a little unwieldy.
They paid the top 100. 13 people left. 11-13th gets $243, 10th gets $273, 5th gets $1200, 1st gets $5733.
Average stack is 35-40K. Short stack is just above 18K. My table is 6 handed and both tables have been really tight. I have ~55K, blinds are 3K and 6K. I have A9o in the big blind. UTG (~40K in chips) raises to 12K and everyone folds to me. This player has been aggressive in blind stealing. I call the extra 6K. Flop comes K92 rainbow. I bet 6K, he calls. Turn is a Q. Scary card but he's been raising if he has a hand so I bet 12K. He calls. River is a 3. I bet 12K to put him all-in. He calls and turns over JJ.
I go out a couple of hands later.
Should I have waited longer to move? I thought that I needed more chips to make the top 5. Any advice would be much appreciated.

[La Brujita]

This is a tough one. What scares me is that even if he has been a blind stealer he is raising from UTG not from late position.

That being said the table is six handed and so he could be stealing.

I think raising preflop is a decent option if you think he is stealing so that you can take control of the hand if you both miss. The problem is you are out of position throughout the hand. Folding preflop is another decent option but it might give too much away if he is stealing like every third hand.

I certainly bet the flop and turn. I am shocked he didn't raise that flop.

I am not sure about the river but I guess if you are going to call a bet there is a lot to be said for betting.

All in all I think you played it fine but am curious as to what others will say.

My feeling honestly after a lot of limit tourneys recently is you are very likely to be ahead after he keeps flat calling. My guess would have been some kind of middle pocket pair, but I would have guessed something like sevens not jacks.

Sorry I cannot be more definitive.

[Tosh]

Fold preflop, and its not close.

[Rduke55]

Thanks. I actually thought middle pair. I mainly kept betting b/c two scare cards were out there and he didn't raise either of them (which he frequently did). I thought if he had a pair, even the JJ he had, he would have folded them since the K and Q were out there and he was facing someone who called his raise. Anything less and my 9's would have had him. I thought I was gold.

[La Brujita]

Tosh do you fold preflop if the opponent has been raising every hand?

By the way as I am sure you know I am not picking on you just trying to spark some debate.

[Tosh]

He's been aggressive in blind stealing, but UTG is not a blind steal position. A9o is weak, he has position and you can't expect a flop you are confident in. It should be mucked, ATo is a fold, AJo I'd call, but wouldn't want to.

[Rduke55]

But essentially 5 more people have to go out before I start moving up substantially in money and blinds were going to 4000-8000. That'd give me one hand all the way through.
Facing the aggressive guy w/ 2nd pair (and I was fairly certain he didn't have top) I figured I may be able to catch him with AJ, A10 or below, or a lower pocket pair.

[Tosh]

Its not about waiting for further money. Its about avoiding a situation where the chance of being dominated is high.

[betgo]

I would automatically call with 53s. With A9 it is a little questionable.

[fnurt]

I am with Tosh on this one.

[M.B.E.]

I agree that A9 should be folded in this situation but I don't totally agree with the rationale Tosh gave ("avoiding a situation where the chance of being dominated is high"). Certainly there is some reasonable chance of being dominated, but I'd assess it at around 25-30%, which I don't consider "high". Given the description of the raiser in the original post, there's a very good chance A9 is either a showdown favourite over what the raiser has or a showdown coinflip. The real problem, and why I say to fold here despite the pot odds, is that when we miss the flop with A9 we will have no real draw and will have to fold to a bet even though we might still have the best hand.

With AT in the same scenario I favour calling.

[Tosh]

That was an oversimplified reason but we will be dominated a lot, and that is a major consideration.

We are really considering our reverse implied odds here. Unless the opponent is very aggressive and has been raising nearly every pot we should avoid AT too. The original poster said he was aggressive in blind stealing but he is raising UTG, obviously not a blind steal position.

[Bernas]

I was thinking 56s. A9 stands little chance of winning here though.

[La Brujita]

This might sound like backtracking but its not, I fold A-9 here at least 90% of the time.

I guess I was trying to make a point with the post. I have been thinking a lot about situational play and playing your opponents within these situations. My point is UTG might not be a stealing position for a normal player six handed but it might be for soemone else.

A-9 might well be likely to be dominated against most raises but if someone raised literally every hand or 2/3 of the hands you likely have the best hand.

Post flop you have a very tricky hand to play especially after no raise by the preflop raiser, he may hold many many hands that you might beat.

I am curious how others play this post flop assuming they called preflop.

Just my two cents.

[Bernas]

Post flop I would raise but if he called or reraised I shut it down. By him calling I am pretty sure that I am beat. Why lose more chips than you have to in this unfavorable spot.

[Rduke55]

I guess I didn't get across that he wasn't just raising to steal the blinds in late position, he was raising with a lot of playable - but not raising - hands in any position. Plus, since I paired my 9 on the flop I would have beat AQ or AJ or most PP. Once the Q came and he just called I figured him for a PP or Ax.

[Rduke55]

But since I caught some of the flop should I have kept betting?

[La Brujita]

Like I said before I would have bet the turn so am curious if others slow down because this situation seems to come up quite frequently in limit tourneys.

I still think you are ahead well more than you are behind.