How bad were amateurs at WSOP?

[betgo]

From the looks of things on TV there were a lot of really weak players the first day of the WSOP main event. Negreanu's comment that they were unbluffable implies a table full of calling stations.

Were most of the players of the level that they could beat the $20 sit and gos or a 1/2 no limit game at the casino? Were there a lot of weak professionals and amateurs who could hold their own at medium stakes? What percentage were really weak players? Were there a lot of reasonably strong players who were at a disadvantage because they hadn't played at that level?

Was the competition at the main event easier than a lot of the side events? I am sure it was easier than the no limit lowball draw.

[mrbaseball]

Of all the players I saw last night Negreanu easily looked like the worst. He was pissing away chips like a drunken sailor.

That said we saw so few hands and so little play I don't think it is fair to claim anyone on the telecast was either brilliant or clueless.

I'm pretty sure all of those "bad" players could beat $20 SnG's. They did afterall win qualifiers to get in against a lot of other "clueless" internet players. We saw maybe 25-35 hands in 2 hours of broadcast. I find it difficult to pass much judgement.

[Bernas]

Negreanu was probably just upset because he couldn't be his super aggressive self. Caro says against a really aggressive player you should raise less and call more. He also says, you should never bluff a weak player.

[MilwaukeeBull]

Daniel also said later that he played very poorly. He didn't read his opponents and make the correct adjustments.
The level of play did seem quite a bit lower this year in the early rounds. Some of the pros were talking (whining?) about it being loose with bad calls that led to bad beats.

[Toro]

I thought the amateurs were pretty bad, but some of the pros didn't adjust well to playing amateurs. I saw a quote after the event that the pros said they will do better next year because they will play less fancy, more straight forward poker.

Two hands that I thought were amusing that involved pro vs. amateur were as follows:

1. Amateur had JJ and raised preflop and "world" Hennigan re-raised with AA. It got back to the amateur and he paused and then said drawing it out " I'm going to r a i s e" and then hesitated again and said "all-in". Hennigan says "call" and amateur says "are you sure". That one was pretty good. It reminded me of a lot of guys I see on-line that can't believe opponent has anything but AK.

2. Sam Farha raised with a low pocket pair and got called by the amateur with K8s. The flop came and the amateur bet although he missed completely. Farha read him perfect and called. Turn same thing. River he hits the 8 beating Farha and bet again and now Farha makes a crying call. Farha was irritated that he lost the hand and tells the guy to stick to the internet where they can't see you shaking like a leaf(not his exact words) when you are bluffing.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Sam Farha raised with a low pocket pair and got called by the amateur with K8s. The flop came and the amateur bet although he missed completely. Farha read him perfect and called. Turn same thing. River he hits the 8 beating Farha and bet again and now Farha makes a crying call. Farha was irritated that he lost the hand and tells the guy to stick to the internet where they can't see you shaking like a leaf(not his exact words) when you are bluffing.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he really read him correctly, then he made a terrible play on the flop and turn. 66 is too vulnerable to not raise if you read your opponent as very weak. Looks like Monday morning quarterbacking to me.

[durron597]

Thank you SossMan for the verification! I said the same thing on the WPT board, glad to know someone who's opinion I respect verified this for me /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Toro]

Very good point! By just calling and not raising he let the amateur get there to beat him. In retrospect I think that was part of why he was upset that he lost the hand.

[burningyen]

Men the Master's elimination (AA vs. flush draw) was pretty painful to watch. Anyone know the chips in the pot and how many the amateur would have left after his call?

[Potowame]

Not sure of the Pot size, but the amature was all-in call.

seemed like the 5+1 UB MTT I play, noone will lay down a hand once invested preflop, its going to the river. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[SossMan]

Without knowing the stack sizes, any analasys is garbage. With all the low cards out there (all < Q), Men certainly didn't have to have AA...he easily could have had an overpair < Q. (The amatuer's hand was KQs). So, if he thought that his six overcard outs were good, he is actually a favorite.
But, like I said, the correct play at that point is all mathmatical...he certainly didn't call him thinking he had the best hand, and he seemed to be sitting there calculating the pot size and the odds of getting there. I give him a little more credit than just saying, I have a flush draw, I must call.
Of course if the pot was t1000 and the bet was t5000, then it was clearly a bad call. But, if the pot was t5000, and the bet was t3000, then its a good call.

Another thing is that it's probably mathmatically correct to take some gambles in a field that large if you feel you are in the lower level skillwise in the field.

[PokerNeal]

I am of the belief that the poker theory as preached is suspended until at least half the field gets eliminated in multi-table large tourney. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[js13_tps]

Men laid down a previous hand to Jeremy after getting talked into a check-check, then a check raise when he gave away a free card and Jeremy got a set of 4's. Then didn't raise as pointed out earlier to chase off that draw.

Juanda's hand was a set of 8's and that lady had slowplayed her set of A's and caught him off guard, the hit another A on the river.

Whats the standard 2+2 play on a set? Norm said something about the amatures having learned to slowplay their sets just like the pro's on TV. Bet the pot or 4x BB to chase the draws away or check-check and check raise on the turn? Hoping of course their draw doesn't improve. Not that i put any stock in Norm's commentary.

Farhah gave away alot of free cards too. DN what was he playing? He was erratic and chasing everything. Seemed he was trying way to hard to put his opponent on a hand and not playing his cards, which for the most part sucked.

Hellmuth threw a fit when he lost a pot and said something to the effect, who plays/bets K2s?

What did Ivey get busted out on? He walked right past his fan club and they didn't seem to mind?

One hand had 5 or 6 see the flop, all of them called, no one bet and not a pair in the bunch? It was like watching a game of 2/4 of no fold 'em hold 'em on yahoo.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I am of the belief that the poker theory as preached is suspended until at least half the field gets eliminated in multi-table large tourney. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, by very defnition, no. "Poker theory as preached" involves adjusting to your opponents. If the opponents are various combinations of too loose and too aggressive, you need to adjust. It's going to be high variance, and in a field of 2500, there will be scores of players who make the "right" play and lose anyway, but none of that is a reason to ignore theory and thought process.

[PokerNeal]

Seems to me like a lot of these pros failed to make that adjustment you speak of. They should perhaps go and re-read the poker theory that speaks of these adjustments. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Scooterdoo]

I heard Negreanu and others during the tournament complain about the unbluffable newbees, however, on the hands that they showed on TV Negreanu was always betting with nothing into strong hands. I don't recall one hand where someone should have folded against his bets. Perhaps if he really wanted to apply pressure with a monster bet, then he could have (I doubt it though) gotten people with superior hands to fold. All in all, the players against him all played their hands very well -- a good combination of slow-playing, raising, calling, etc.

The only hand I recall where there was a questionable call was when Men the Master (sp?) had his pocket AA called by a King high flush draw. I wasn't sure how much was in the pot, so the guy didn't necessarily have the correct odds, but it wasn't a terrible call if the pot was close to the amount of the bet, even if it was 1/2 of bet the odds weren't that much off. The announcers were talking as if every pro would have laid down the hand, and perhaps they would have even with the right odds given the early stage of the tournament, but for an inexperienced player with close odds and the ability to double up early and knock out a top pro, it didn't seem to be that bad of a call.

[PokerNeal]

Is Negreanu still in/out? How about Men the Master? One of the posts said Phil Ivey got busted. Any other pro left?

[woodguy]

You know this was played in May right?

[betgo]

The reason that I posted this here rather than the TV forum is that I was curious about the reaction of people who were there. I am sure there are quite a few in this forum.

I am a weak pofessional/semiprofessional who does relatively well in serious tournaments and I am wondering if it is worth playing next year.

Maybe I'll try reposting a similar question after the TV hubub dies down.

[PokerNeal]

LOL. I am so out of the loop I had no idea this had happened in May! /images/graemlins/grin.gif I take it this is the one where Fossilman won. Duh! Anyway, thanks for this thread. The title of this post should be "How bad were Pros at WSOP?!"

[Zoe's Echo]

As I recall - Juanda went all-in preflop in LP/short-stacked with his 88's and got called by AA the 8/A on the flop was post the action. No?

[trillig]

One thing: The pros bluff a lot! Concentrating on that going in...
They can be picked off...

I think the masses are better than they used to be, but I have to give someone who won their way in via a sat, SOME credit, I almost got in the main this year via the cheapo route, I'm definitely taking more than 1 shot if needed next year. I doubt I'll ever just plunk down the big buyin $ for any tournament.

I think a lot of players are definitely highly nervous at the WSOP and I have to factor that in some... Once you play tough competition a few times, it gets much easier, did wonders for me last night.

-Bri

[RFJ]

There are some pros that i believe to play well. Some are just lucky one time blunders. Have you seen things like four people all in preflop early in the tournament maybe the first hand. Everyone has pocket pairs from AA to 44. The 44 wins. He wasn't the first one to push all in. He was the very last. I've seen it happen. So how do you win against luck like that? early on he now has 4x the lead. Also it's the bubble close to the final table. You see someone making a move all in or raising pretty much making a power play. Another guy pushes him all in with KK because he knows this. The guy who was making a move has 3 6. Basically he raised half his stack preflop to steal the blinds. Now he has the option to fold, but he calls the all in. The flop gives 3 6 two pairs. He wins the pot. Now the KK had him covered. He wins the pot and gives the lame excuse i had to do it i was pot commited. How lucky is he? Weak players can make bad moves and make so many chips with bad beats that they can afford a couple of beats. I find myself short stacked in most of my tourneys sometimes i feel like pushing it with weaker cards. It's not my ability read what others may have, but i can never seem to get lucky enough.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
There are some pros that i believe to play well. Some are just lucky one time blunders. Have you seen things like four people all in preflop early in the tournament maybe the first hand. Everyone has pocket pairs from AA to 44. The 44 wins. He wasn't the first one to push all in. He was the very last. I've seen it happen. So how do you win against luck like that? early on he now has 4x the lead. Also it's the bubble close to the final table. You see someone making a move all in or raising pretty much making a power play. Another guy pushes him all in with KK because he knows this. The guy who was making a move has 3 6. Basically he raised half his stack preflop to steal the blinds. Now he has the option to fold, but he calls the all in. The flop gives 3 6 two pairs. He wins the pot. Now the KK had him covered. He wins the pot and gives the lame excuse i had to do it i was pot commited. How lucky is he? Weak players can make bad moves and make so many chips with bad beats that they can afford a couple of beats. I find myself short stacked in most of my tourneys sometimes i feel like pushing it with weaker cards. It's not my ability read what others may have, but i can never seem to get lucky enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

The "lucky" players will be losers in the long run if they keep making those plays. The unlucky ones will be winners if they keep getting their money in with way the best of it. Just don't expect it to balance out in one tournament. Or one month. Or one year...

Example: I won $4400 by placing 7th in the Party Super Monday this week. When I tell non-poker playing friends about this, they say things like "wow, $4400 for one nights work." Well, that's really not true. I've probably played those "super" tournaments on party a dozen times in the past couple months. I've sqeeked in to the money once before, not even doubling my buy-in, but they were all filled with their share of bad-luck, bad beats, etc. If you are making the right plays, you will win eventually. And in tournaments, when you win, you win big. This is countered by the fact that the *vast* majority of the time, the best tournament player in the world will not even make the money in an event where ~10% of the field is paid.

Poker is about taking small-to-medium edges over and over again to make money. You need to have sufficient bankroll and patience to take advantage of this. Let's say you had $5000. I have a 20-sided die (or better yet, *you* have a 20-sided die you big nerd) and I say that we'll bet $1 and I'll roll the die. If it's a 1-9, I win, if it's a 10-20 you win. We'll make this bet until you are tired of making it. Would you take it? Of course you would. If it came up 1-9 8 or 9 times in a row, would you bemoan that its impossible to win? Of course not, you'd keep doing it until I ran out of money.

If the bet was say, $2000 with your $5000 bankroll, you'd have a very good chance of losing all your money of course. If you did, would you say that the game was impossible to beat? Of course not, and you'd take it again in a second if you had the money to spare. Well, in a tournament you have, defacto, a limited bankroll. You're making bets with the biggest edges you can manufacture, but in poker, those edges are not *nearly* large enough to prevent the risk of ruin from being very large, plus the fact that in a field of 200 (or 1000, or whatever), while you may be better than the field, there could easily be players out there who have a small edge against you.

A lot of rambling to say be patient, keep getting your money in with the best of it, and turn around and place your hands on the hood of the car while the BAD BEAT POLICE frisk you.

[patrick dicaprio]

to me it seemed like the pros played worse than the amatuers. if you cant play a guy off a hand dont bluff. this is a lesson they learned the hard way.

Pat

[RFJ]

I think i'm a pretty good player. I'm not too bad. if i had a good bankroll i'd be playing the big money tournaments...but i know that even if i had a money i wouldn't bet everything on just one tournament. It's just those bad beats that kills me. I qualified for last sats 200k. I took 194 out of about 1400. Although I was out i did check out the last table. Some of the things they were doin was incredible. All in with 66 and 77. He may have thought he pushed all in with AK or something so his 66 would be a 50 draw, but it was amazing. I mean although it was the final table it was not short handed. It was a full set of people. I'm like wtf everyone is going in with these small pockets put me in. Sometimes i think though that's how they made it to the final table. With luck. They may have won one tourney, but hey it's one big one. I mean I can place, but it's real hard for me to place in longer tourneys only because i find myself short stacked and taking a bad beat. The longer the tourney is the more bad beats i can take. I stopped play the rebuy tourneys because someone would always have a 10x lead over the table before the rebuy period was done. I like to play the cards on the table. If my friend is looking over my shoulder and asks me what i think the other guy has i'd tell him and i'm usually correct. Even if i don't know 100% what he has I know if i'm beat. One time i was close to the money. I had A9 the flop came an A x x. The guy bet my friend was like call man he's just making a move. You have top pair what do u think he has? I told him i though he had the A too but probably with a K or Q kicker. Just to prove it i said watch and called him, which otherwise i would have folded. Yeah i was right he had the K. It's just hard to keep up with people going all in preflop. Just now i was playing a game QQ vs QJ he makes a straight, but he could call early on he made a 4x lead over the whole table. This was about the 5th hand in the game. Another game i was playing a freeroll about 300 people in it. Only 2 players left him and me. We started with about the same amount of chips but i kept increasing my lead slowly little by little. Now i have AA so i make a raise. He reraise. by now i know he has pockets so i raise him enough to make him push all in. We go all in. He get's 99 on board makes four of a kind. This was all in preflop. So now the lead i had we back to even chips again. It's time to leave so i just push it all in with any cards at this point. If i win i win if i lose i lose. I take second. I would have played him till the end but didn't have time. i take 150 instead of the 300. If you'd ask me to play the flop i'd have a better chance. I'm a pretty tight player. If i think i'm pretty much beat i won't call with JJ or some other top pair. maybe 1 out of 10 times i might have been lucky to have made sets to beat out the other player, but preflop he had a 80% lead over me.

[cferejohn]

1. The "enter" key is your friend. Use it. Your post reads like a James Joyce novel.

2. Bad beats are part of poker. They are good. They mean someone else is making a mistake. Other people making mistakes is what makes you money.

3. Nothing in poker is very improbable. 27o beats AA about 1 time in 5. If the best hand always won, the bad players would not play. Would you go up against an NBA basketball player for $100/game? No, because you would always lose and there would be no way to rationalize it as "bad luck". However, a bad player can and will sometimes beat a good or great player. If they do it once, they'll start thinking they are good and keep making bad plays. If they think they are a good player, they will remember the times they won more than they remember the times they lost (or they will think of all the times they lost as "unlucky").

If bad beats kill you, and I am being completely serious here, don't play poker. If you are never taking bad beats, then you are never getting your money in with the best of it. If you are never getting your money in with the best of it, you cannot win.

Chess is a wonderful game. There are no bad beats. It is also a game where the better player will win the overwhelming majority of the time (and the degree to which this is not true is due to the incredible complexity of the game, rather than luck). However, while it is possible to be a profesional chess player, there in nothing like the leagues of "fish" you see in poker, lining up to get their money taken away.

Bad beats are statistically inevitable. If you play long enough (especially online where you can see many many more hands), you are going to see 3 outers, 2 outers, 1 outers, runner runner perfect cards, etc. If you are going to be thrown off your game every time you see one, I honestly implore you to quit now.

[RFJ]

Sorry for the long posts and if it seems like i'm being a whinner. It's just that my game seem to be a stricken with bad luck. Well yes i do know you want people who try to give u bad beats. Just forgot for awhile because i would get them so close to the money. If it was early on then i wouldn't feel so bad, but most of these I spent so many hours in the bubble. It makes everything feel so close, but yet so far away..I can almost taste it, but it makes it all bitter when i'm so close. At least i took 2nd to qualify for the PP $1 mil yesterday. It makes me feel a little better.

[BAD BEAT POLICE]

OK, IVE LET THIS GO ON LONG ENOUGH. HANDS BEHIND YOUR BACK, SIR.
------------------------------------------------------------

PEOPLE HAVE 1 OF 2 REACTIONS TO YOUR BAD BEAT STORY:

1. THEY DON’T CARE.

2. THEY ARE HAPPY.

PLEASE POST YOUR BAD BEAT STORIES AT www.RIVEREDAGAIN.com (http://www.RIVEREDAGAIN.com) AND QUIT CLUTTERING UP MY FORUM.

-BAD BEAT POLICE /images/graemlins/cool.gif

P.S. YOU OWE ME $1.