QJ semi-bluff hand

[soah]

Playing a $20 SNG at PokerStars.

The blinds are 10/20 and everyone has roughly t1500 still. No real reads yet.

A player in middle position limps, SB completes, and I check with an offsuit QJ.

Flop is T85 rainbow. SB checks, and I try to minimize some window that is in my way, and end up taking some time before I finally bet the pot (t60). MP stops and thinks before finally calling. SB folds. I'm unsure if my long pause affected MP's decision to call. If he took my pause to mean weakness, then his own puase may mean he is considering whether AJ or 44 is enough to beat me... ?

The turn is a brick... something like the 3 of clubs. There are now 2 clubs showing. I don't think that MP has much at all... but I don't either. The pot is t180, so I bet t150 and expect him to fold. He stops and thinks again before finally calling.

The river is the 9 of clubs. I had been prepared to give up the hand now and write up MP as a calling station, but now I've made my straight. There is t480 in the pot, so I bet t300 and hope he'll call one last time. He quickly min-raises. It is plainly obvious to me that he has hit something that he was fishing for -- but I really have no idea what it could be. I'm preparing to reraise big, but I notice I don't actually have the nuts due to the running clubs. If my read was correct that he had no pair on the flop or turn, then it is possible that he has backed into a flush. A reraise of any amount will result in me going broke if he has the flush. I can win a pretty big pot if I just call and win.

I am pretty confident of my read that he was very weak on the flop and turn and likes the river card quite a bit. Would you call or push at the end? Why?

[Hood]

I would certainly call. I you re-raise, the only hand that's going to call here is flush or JQ, so you gain nothing by re-raising.

However although you didn't ask for advice on the earlier round play, I think you made some errors. Firstly, I seriously wouldn't recommend taking *any* notice of time 'tells' you think you can garner from opponents. As you say, you took time to bet the pot on the flop because you had to deal with other windows. His delayed calling could mean the same. Don't presume this is weakness. It could also mean strength. Firing your second barrel on the turn I think is a big mistake. It's not much of a semi-bluff anymore with only 1 card to come, and with the 2 clubs on board you don't know what outs are still good. I don't try and bluff the fish.

[tallstack]

I think that MP could have a wide variety of hands here, and I agree with your read that the river card likely hit his hand pretty hard. Could he have 76, T9, 99, QJ? All of these seem possible with a MP limp. The river completed the high straight and also would have completed the low straight. But could he have the backdoored the flush as well? It is certainly possible, but pretty unlikely with a single opponent.

IMO, it is quite likely that your hand is good here, but will he call your all-in with a hand you can beat? I think that the times you will get called by a worse straight, trips, or two-pair out weigh the times you will be shown the backdoor flush. I think both the call and the re-raise have merit here, but I would opt for the re-raise.

Dave S

[golFUR]

At first I was going to post a reply to tallstack's post, which I agree with for the most part but want to give the argument for just calling. Then I realized that for full hand analysis I needed to be able to refer to your post...

Note: Advice is based solely on my play, if I give bad advice I'm not repeating from a bad book, its a mistake I currently make. PLEASE correct me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Okay, first read. He limps from middle position instead of raising. My first guess is he has a 'speculative' hand, something that needs help to win. I guess suited connectors, connectors or small/middle pair. He likely wants a caller or two behind him to improve his odds. A small raise from BB wouldn't be amiss, just for getting a bit more information and to soften him up in case you hit.

Your flop bet I'm not sure about. Leading into him lets him know you are interested but how interested? For what size raise do you fold? I ignore the timing here as well (referring to tallstack's note). His flop call gives two alternatives, he is still drawing or he is trapping. Does he have bottom or middle pair or did he flop a set? These are your two questions going into the turn. Maybe A8 suited and wants two pair or set of 8s or 5s and doesn't expect to be outdrawn.

Your turn bet works because of your flop bet. To check here would give him license to steal and to bet too much may end up being a donation. As you noted yourself, you don't have a hand yet. Again he just calls. Is he still drawing? The 3 doesn't help his hand and he's probably sure it doesn't help yours. Your bet is significant compared to the size of the pot but not significant compared to stack sizes. His call here still leaves the same questions. Does he have a mediocre pair or is he slowplaying a set or two pair? If you'd bet pot or more than pot you might have more info but that wasn't really an option given your hand.

On river I still agree with tallstack mostly. You now have a straight that can only be beat by a flush. Given his play he could very easily have as little as TJ off suit or as much as A8 clubs. A set or two pair is my first guess.

Now for why its just a call. This thinking probably puts me more in line with Lori than Strassa (get that name right? just met them both today...).

His reraise says either; I don't think you have doodly and I'm testing that for as little as I can (top pair) -OR- I think I have you beat but am not quite confident enough to ask for all your chips (set, two pair) -OR- I know I have you beat but I don't think you'll call much more than this minimal raise (flush, same straight as you).

In the first case, you reraise all in or a substantial amount and he folds, you get no info or minimal info. In the second case your substantial reraise is called and you get info plus a decent pot, your allin reraise is probably met with a fold and same thing, minimal or no info. In the last case you end up crippled or out.

My goal in a SnG is to make it to the money and then thrash my opponents for 1st. Going out early would make that less likely. The easiest way to thrash my opponents on the bubble or in the money is to know them well and have them know the things about me that I wanted them to know. I call his reraise for a plethora of hard-to-define reasons that hopefully you can read a few of between the lines here. I don't want to go out early if I don't have to, nobody can put me all in but me, why risk going out to a flush if I can instead lose a few in the bb or pick up a few in the bb (which is quite often a loss and so this is nice). Why not have my opponents a little bit afraid that I underplay monsters? Later on when I am playing a mediocre hand they may misread it as a monster or I may have an opportunity to bluff it as a monster, I've set myself up nicely. He is likely beat, show people that you will not be bluffed on the river, that you will not risk all your chips without nuts, that your opponent made a really stupid reraise, whatever. But be there for the next hand and be there richer in info.

Those are always my goals in a SnG and especially early. Don't go out while looking for specifics I can exploit later. Rivering a straight in big blind and picking up a healthy pot is much better than learning the guy who just put you out makes bad draws and small raises with nut flushes. As well, the slightly sketchy play puts everyone on guard, you lead out w/ draws against limpers, won't be enticed w/ second best, will make correct calls in slightly scary positions... If you lose it, same deal, good info is spread about you, bad info about him. You don't overplay a strong hand when you just might lose it, you expose your opponent for being loose and potentially terrible.

[tallstack]

golFUR,

I agree with most all of what you are saying here. My first reaction when I read the intial post was to suggest a call. It is certainly a safe play in that you are going to scoop the pot a good percentage of the time, and when you are shown the flush you will have about t700 left to work with. I don't think anyone here would opt for a fold.

Is the risk worth it? Even though I suggested going to the re-raise, I based it more on a +CEV stance than a +$EV stance. The divergence between these two early in a SNG is not something that I have a real good feeling for to be honest. Do the extra t700 that you pick up when you raise and win, outweigh the times you will come back from t700 to cash when you call and lose? That is a tough one for me. By default, I am trying to make my decisions early in a SNG on CEV alone and in this case it swayed me to favour the re-raise (mostly because of potential calls from the lower straight). Is this correct, though? I am not convinced one way or another yet. Others here would likely have a better idea than I do.

FWIW, I don't think the call is bad. I just opted for what I believe is the greater +CEV.

Dave S

[golFUR]

I didn't look at it from outcome going forward perspective quite the same way. I alluded to this in my post, but more clearly, I don't mind playing down. That may deserve 'stupid quote of the month' award, but being down on chips isn't an uncomfortable position for me and I write from that perspective. Being down to ~500, or ~700 on another site, still leaves affordable blinds in the early round, plenty of weak players left to double up off of, and an appearance of vulnerability which makes bad calls more likely.

For me, especially given that I don't take stack sizes seriously until around the bubble, the information is all important. Knowing that I can come back, that anyone can come back and that I will likely see them again in another SnG, I ALWAYS want more info. And in that situation it had the added bonus of being able to broadcast favorable info to the other players as well. Again, that is from the perspective of my normal style, but that kind of info would do my normal game good to have out there on the table.

I suppose backing out another step I should qualify my advice/analysis by saying that while I understand the finer technical details of poker I am still more of an 'holistic' type player. I don't get into bad odds situations often, but if I think advertising or the information to be gained or whatever is worth it... I play a lot more on reads and tempo, on my opponents hands, than I do on my own or on strict +/-EV considerations.

[soah]

I appreciate the responses.

As for the suggestion that I should ignore time "tells" completely -- I agree that they are not always reliable, but this player had been acting promptly on all of his decisions so far. The general rule of thumb is that a player who takes a long time thinking is usually considering folding. I've found this to be true even online unless they regularly play very slow. I risked t150 on the turn to gain t180, because I expected him to fold more than half of the time. I still have outs even when called. This is not my standard play, but I could lose these chips without hurting my stack too much.

I ended up only calling the raise on the end even though I thought I had the best hand. He showed me 76 for the smaller straight. Not re-raising felt very weak, but I've had similar hands recently where I hit my draw on the river and re-raised all-in against someone that rivered the nuts. That's why I wanted to see how others felt.

[patrick dicaprio]

i would almost always just call. raising cannot be EV because he will only call a big raise with a flush.

Pat