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View Full Version : nfl totals - MIN, SF


natedogg
08-18-2004, 01:28 AM
Not set in stone, but these are my thoughts.

Betting totals overs is hard, very hard. Lots of bad things can happen. So I'm going with two of them.

Minnesota over 8.5:
This defense is going to surprise a lot of people. Their defensive line is first rate. Kenny Mixon, Chris Hovan, Kevin Williams, and the first round pick Udeze.

The addition of Antoine Winfield, one of the best shut-down corners in the game, will allow their safeties and linebackers to blitz more.

Their depth at running back is probably the best in the NFL along with Denver. With the kind of running game they are capable of mounting, and if the defense lives up to its new billing, this team could be a defense oriented, clock chewing monstrosity.

They won't. They'll score a lot. They'll throw to Moss a lot. They will be a very solid, all around team and will very likely make a deep playoff run. The one risk is some kind of Culpepper meltdown. But that's why it's called gambling.

49ers over 5:
I'm surprised everyone is so down on this team. One player does not make the whole team. TO is gone but the 9ers have young receivers that have shown they can produce. They won't be helpless. Remember, this is the team that beat Philly in week 15 WITHOUT the help of T.O.

Rattay has several starts and a winning record, including dismantling the Rams and Steelers last year at home, so the downgrade from Garcia isn't a disaster. In both of those games Rattay led his team to 30 points.

The 9ers have the best defense in the NFC West, and probably the best linebacking corps in the whole NFC next to the Bucs. Their defense will keep them in a lot of games where one break away run by Barlow or one circus catch by Lloyd can win it.

Year 2 of Erickson's regime is bound to be an improvement. New coaches generally have a tough first year and their team improves the next. I'm not a big fan of Erickson but I think the 9ers will play better this year. I'm expecting 7 to 8 wins. 5 is just ridiculous.

I'm also probably going to pick the 9ers as my week 1 best bet. There's a LOT of action on Atlanta and most of the noise on the message boards is about Atlanta being a week 1 best bet, but a week 1 road win at candlestick while giving 4+ pts is no easy task.

The one problem is if Peterson actually sits out part of the season. I highly doubt it but that's why they call it gambling.

natedogg

Boris
08-18-2004, 05:24 PM
The only thing I would be concerned about in your week 1 pick is that Alex Gibbs is now the O-line coach at Atlanta. Gibbs was the guy that turned Denver's O-line into a lean mean run blocking machine. I have a ton of respect for that guy and I think in NFL more than any other sport coaching matters at the pro level.

I like the niners over 5.

Did the Vikings fire Goerge O'Leary yet? If they did then probably the defense will at least be OK.

J.R.
08-18-2004, 06:47 PM
Ted Cottrell is the vikings coordinator, and there defense will be far more aggressive this year as a result.