2nd hand of the evening - loose raise or good read

[codewarrior]

Typical after-work just-got-home $20 SnG on Stars. Usual suspects, I know 5 of the players. Villain is directly to my left. 2nd hand, I look down and find Kings in the BB after eleventeen limpers and make it 200 to go. Scary board, but UTG is a solid player who may think I'm on a steal representing the flush. Loose calling the raise? I put her on AA with the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. No way I'm putting her on the flush, but I know she knows I will fold to a raise if I'm bluffing. Thoughts?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1500)
Button (t1480)
SB (t1480)
Hero (t1500)
UTG <font color="purple">(fearless solid)</font> (t1540)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG <font color="purple">(fearless solid)</font> calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls t20, Button calls t20, SB completes, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, UTG <font color="purple">(fearless solid)</font> calls t180, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Flop: (t480) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets t480</font>, <font color="CC3333">fearless solid raises to t1340</font>, Hero calls t820 (All-In).

Turn: (t3120) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t3120) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3120
<font color="green">Main Pot: t3080 (t3080), between Hero and fearless solid.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (t3080).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t40 (t40), returned to fearless solid.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Kd Ks (three of a kind, kings).
fearless solid shows Kc As (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins t3080. fearless solid wins t40. </font>

[adanthar]

There are very few conceivable situations under which you should even be thinking of folding this.

[codewarrior]

I know this. But everytime I find myself in this situation, I either look at the board and go "poop," and fold, or push and sure enough - poop.

This time I said "poop" rapidly followed by "f-it," and it was all good.

Same scenario now - but this time I don't have the luxury of knowing anyone's habits at the table. What's your play?

[adanthar]

Who cares? You have top set and eighty billion outs if you're beaten by some freak accident.

Unless the other guy's jumping up and down screaming 'OMG I just hit my first straight flush', this is the easiest call ever (and then, at some places I'd call anyway and hope my bad beat was good.)

[Benholio]

You can call this bet with or without a read I think. Even if your opponent has the nut flush already, you are 33% to draw to a full house or better by the river.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=454636
pokenum -h kd ks - ah qh -- kh 9h jh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Jh 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kd 331 33.43 659 66.57 0 0.00 0.334
Ah Qh 659 66.57 331 33.43 0 0.00 0.666

[codewarrior]

Thank you. This is a situation that has probably cost me many pots. I'm too tight weak early.

(Euro players: please make a note of this for Saturday... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

[codewarrior]

It is the 2nd hand of the tournament. In a ring game I agree with this logic. 3:1 to double up or 2:3 to go home "broke."

[tallstack]

Very strange play by the fearless solid player. What hand do you limp with UTG and then call a 10x raise with, but do not reraise? Especially when there are three players left to act after you. If see limped initially with aces, why would she not raise you now, there is a lot of money in the pot already and she wouldn't want to see multiple callers behind her. FWIW, I would not expect aces here. I would expect a strong, but not monster, hand here. I think that both AK and JJ are possibilities.

The only hand that beats you right now is the flush (the likelihood that a solid player has QT had to be too low to worry about), and you can't be sure that she is not betting the lone A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. If she had JJ then she would raise all-in here as well. Also, if she is strong she likely doesn't fear you having the flush either, so AK could fit as well.

All in all, I think you have an easy call here.

Dave S

[codewarrior]

Thanks, I'm sensing a trend here. Perhaps I tend to focus on survival more than building a stack, and see too many monsters under the bed.

[durron597]

Yes, but this is an SnG. You can think about folding this at the WSOP.

[codewarrior]

Funny you should reply this way.... If this were a $100+9 I would have called without hesitation. Probably do the same at the WSOP /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. But it's a $20, so perhaps I'm thinking too much?

[durron597]

Well my point was that if you bust out on the second hand of the WSOP, you just wasted $10000 and a trip to Vegas with really deep stacks and a whole lot of play left in the tourney; and you can't try again for another year. On the other hand, this is an SnG which A) You know you play profitably, and B) You can just go play another one, and C) You almost certainly can afford to lose one buyin. All of those factors is why I would (almost) always call with top set on a one-tone flush in an SnG - and if my Bankroll didn't allow it, then I shouldn't be playing at that level. I would only not play it if I had an unusually specific read, like the person will call raises with suited aces and will only raise allin with the nut flush (but would just call with a set, say).