88 hand that gave me trouble

[Steve Giufre]

15-30 Party. Folded to unknown player in late middle position who open raises. I 3 bet in SB with 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Flop:Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, he calls.

Turn:2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet he calls.

River: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check, he bets, I call. This is hand is probably a good example of how I probably wouldnt have put in that many bets post flop had I been playing in a live game. But, on the net, agaist an unknown, this has pretty much been my default play for these types of hands when HU out of position. Anybody check the turn here? How about the river payoff?

[DeeJ]

Looks like a jack; in fact if he does have a jack a flop check-raise would probably have got rid of him....

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like a jack; in fact if he does have a jack a flop check-raise would probably have got rid of him....

[/ QUOTE ]

Could be, but coming out checking there after my preflop three bet would be getting into very unfarmiliar territory, at least in HU situations. It could also give him an oppertunity to hit a hand he might have even folded for one bet on the flop.

[Fianchetto]

You know, I would probably play it just as you did.

Preflop: I think its raise or fold, and I like raise, you push out the BB, get some dead money in the pot, and your eights have a better chance of standing up.

Flop: Standard lead after preflop 3-bet

Turn: I think this is the toughest decision of the hand. By checking you lose less when behind, but if ahead you let him draw at you for free. I like betting here, I wouldn't like being raised though (did you have a plan if raised?). But I think giving a free card is too dangerous since if you are ahead at this point he likely has at least 6 outs to beat you with two overcards, maybe more if he has a straight or flush draw to go with it.

River: I like check and call. Heads up like this I think your hand is good often enough to call getting 7.5 to 1. Betting out will not fold a better hand, and I don't see a worse hand calling. You also can induce a bluff if he missed with overcards.

[mike l.]

"Flop: Standard lead after preflop 3-bet"

this is the problem. that is a bad flop for black 8s heads up out of position. you need to seriously consider checking here and giving up some of the time depending on the opponent.

"River: You also can induce a bluff if he missed with overcards."

you will only induce a bluff from KT and T9 here. i dont think a smaller pair will value bet, but TT and 99 will. the thing im trying to say is AK will very rarely bet here on the river.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
"Flop: Standard lead after preflop 3-bet"

this is the problem. that is a bad flop for black 8s heads up out of position. you need to seriously consider checking here and giving up some of the time depending on the opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont' see how you could possibly just give up and check/fold this flop. If you bet and he calls, it would be tempting to check/fold the turn sometimes but how can you not fire 1 bet in this pot to win 7?

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
"Flop: Standard lead after preflop 3-bet"

this is the problem. that is a bad flop for black 8s heads up out of position. you need to seriously consider checking here and giving up some of the time depending on the opponent.



[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the problem. I think its really close between check folding the turn, and playing it as I did. In a live game, as I said in my original post, it would be really unlikely for me to play the hand that way, because agaist a lot of oppenents, I would be able to give the hand up earlier, or at least save the bet on the river.

Online, I think it becomes a more difficult situation. An unknown late position raiser would open raise with a lot of hands in that game. So I think my 3 bet is probably correct even though it's close. On the turn, if I do check with the intention of folding, I'll be pushed off the best hand a decent amount of the time, because these guys almost never take free cards in these HU situations. Without player information, I think it's tough between just check folding the flop, and playing it aggresively as I did. The fact is being heads up out of position in spots like this just sucks, and I'm not sure if there is a right or wrong way to play this one.

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]
..you need to seriously consider checking here and giving up some of the time depending on the opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

After reading your posts I'm surprised that you would give up on a hand like this. I didn't give much consideration to folding, and maybe that's a leak in my game, but don't you want to see a showdown with this hand?

True, it depends on the opponent. Against a known tight passive player I could probably lay it down, but against an unknown I want to get to the river.

With a medium pair heads up against a LP open raiser I really want to make it to a showdown.

[monkeyfightclub]

how many people were playing in that particular hand?

[mike l.]

"The fact is being heads up out of position in spots like this just sucks,"

at the risk of being flamed again. (and i think im right on this and this is what my initial post was leading at). why not just throw the hand away before the flop and wait for TT or better to make your move? what are your pokertracker details saying about 88 in the sb against a mid/late raiser?

[mike l.]

"don't you want to see a showdown with this hand?"

you want to but if you are against a reasonable/good player you may not be able to and it's going to be harder for your 88 to stand up if he starts showing any sort of strength. unless youre against a certified goof who will get mutli-street pushy w/ Ax and K9 on this board you need to accept that putting in a mandatory 2.5 bets here is going to end up a long run losing play. i think it will be +EV to avoid middle pairs like 77, 88, even 99 against players w/ likely overcards who play well after the flop. im making assumptions about hero's opponent. i think this one is opponent based. i think i could also be way off but it's going to take an online expert to convince me.

[Nate tha' Great]

You're in quite a predicament here on the turn. I think, roughly speaking:

1) 40% of the time you'll be up against a draw and currently have the best hand. Most of these draws are robust enough (4-flushes or overcards plus gutshots) that they probably won't fold to a turn bet.
2) 40% of the time you'll be up against a weak made hand like a pair of jacks or maybe even TT/99 that is planning on seeing a showdown but will usually bet when checked to.
3) 20% of the time you are up against a very strong hand that called the flop with the intention of raising the turn.

The drawing hand will draw out on you around say 20% of the time, so your showdown equity here is something like 32%.

(Note: I've worked with PokerStove to come up with these percentages, so they aren't completely pulled out of thin air, even though it might seem like it).

Unfortunately that's just enough equity that you'd probably like to see a showdown, unless the river card is one that you really hate. But also unfortunately this is one of those hands where you really hate being out of position.

What happens if you check the turn? Suppose that your opponent will bet his weak made hand, but will check behind with his draw. Against an opponent who plays this straightforwardly, you would want to check and fold, since the benefit of getting reliable information on his hand strength outweighs the cost of giving up a free card.

Now suppose instead that your opponent will bet with *any* hand when checked to. A bet goes in on this turn no matter what. However, it would be best to bet it yourself for one important reason: if he's slowplaying a big hand, he'll let you know on the turn, as you can fold to a raise. This saves you a bet versus checking and calling on two consecutive streets.

Finally, suppose that you're up against an opponent who will always bet a made hand (60% of the time he has a made hand), but will only bet a draw half the time. WHEN THIS OPPONENT BETS, you are roughly a 3:1 underdog to have the best hand on the turn, and will sometimes be drawn out upon on the river. Unfortunately the pot is laying you 5.5:1 on the turn call, which is too much to fold, even considering that you have to call most rivers too. You'd certainly rather bet yourself than leave the decision up to him, since that way a bet always goes in on the turn rather than allowing him to check it through some of those times that he is behind.

Most of the time, your opponent will fall into the later category, and so betting out is correct. However, if your opponent is tight and straightforward-playing, you can probably save money by check-folding. Checking and calling with a weak made hand on two consecutive streets would be terrible poker, as it is under most circumstances.

[mplspoker]

Online late positon raiser could be almost any two cards, especially Axs. Very common. Bet river. aces will call and your going to call if you check. Small chance to fold better hands, but possible.

[jimswarthow]

if thats the way u have to play online to win than I never want to play online. This is the default way you play 88? out of position. The 3 bet pre flop well okay maybe... if its a loose raiser I will do it occasionally. The payoff and everything after the flop is the default way u will go broke. But who am I? GLS

[jimswarthow]

I wish I could say it like that. Heck I wish I could think like that.

[Steve Giufre]

Nate,

Great post, seriously. Thats as good of an analysis as I could have hoped to get. It's a tricky spot, without any player infomation.

[JimmyV]

I think the turn is very dicey with that Q and J out there. You're basically hoping he has AK or AT, and therefore yes, you must bet the turn given the previous action.

I'd suggest just calling preflop; maybe BB has unduplicated outs against you, maybe he doesn't. I don't think it's very likely to hurt you to have him in, if he calls (I see a surprising number of people fold this 5:1 BB, probably multitabling).

But if you just call preflop you can check-raise a raggy board that includes perhaps just one overcard, or bet out for information if you get a flop like the one you got.

If you bet this flop without having three-bet beforehand, a typical LMP raiser will call with hands you're beating and raise with the hands you have two outs against. Some tricky types might raise AK/AT here, but you're not giving up much by folding to that raise maybe 2/3 of the time.

Keep the pot a little smaller preflop, get better flop info by not overstating the power of your hand, and get away cheaply without paying off AJ as I fear you did here.

Nate's analysis of the turn looks good; but I don't think I reraise here in SB unless it's one of those button-v-blinds pissing contests getting underway.

JimmyV

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
"The fact is being heads up out of position in spots like this just sucks,"

at the risk of being flamed again. (and i think im right on this and this is what my initial post was leading at). why not just throw the hand away before the flop and wait for TT or better to make your move? what are your pokertracker details saying about 88 in the sb against a mid/late raiser?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont find this all that unreasonable, although I think 88 might be just a little too strong. But it's so difficult to play these middle pairs out of position after a three bet when the flop doesnt come all that favorable. Without any player player information, I think you'll find yourself in an uncomfortable situation on the turn a lot of the time. Since so many of these guys pretty much auto call the flop with position in these HU situations, a lot of the time a turn bet is necessary. (Also online, a worse hand will put in a turn bet when checked to a lot). But at the same time, you really cant commit 2.5 BBs on every single flop. I think the point is, you really need a real hand to 3 bet the SB, if you are up agaist a LP raiser who has decent post flop skills. I'm not sure I'm going to start dumping 88, but I have been smooth calling a bit more with my marginal hands, and letting go of stuff like Axs and 55, where I might have 3 bet them before.

Unfortunately I dont have enough hands in my poker tracker to really say whether or not this hand is profitable in this spot. But, I bet it is a little closer than a lot of us might think.

[SA125]

n/m

[Steve Giufre]

I called the river and he showed KQ and took it down. I'm starting to think calling preflop is every bit the play that raising is. Even though I will let the BB in a lot, I'll be be able to check raise a lot of flops, and get a better idea of where I stand taking that line than I will 3 betting and leading at it twice. Even the bad players are starting to rope-a-dope the top pair in these spots when HU with position. (Although I'm sure an argument can be made for raising his hand on the turn.) I think the problem with three betting preflop is that I'm going to hate it on the turn a good majority of the time. And without player information its very difficult to know when check folding is right, especially when the board is draw heavy and there are a few bets in the pot. I think a lot depends on how likely he is to clearly define his hand on the turn when he is checked to, as Nate pointed out. Agaist straight forward opponents, it should be an easy check fold. But online, where an unknown is likely to push a worse hand when checked to, and is also likely to call with some hands that I beat, i think betting again is probably right.

By just calling preflop, it avoids a lot of these tough turn decisions because I havent shown the preflop strength, and a turn check doesnt necessarily open me up to be bet off my hand. I think it is eaiser to call preflop, and look to checkraise favorable flops, or check call one bet with some of the scarier flops, and fold to the turn bet. I guess what I'm trying to say is that isolation without position is really overated, at least without the goods.