PS Turbos v. PP sng's, & a question about confidence (math)

[LinusKS]

I got Pokertracker about three and a half months ago, and I've been assiduously tracking my results since then. I have about 300 PS 15+1, 300 PP 10+1, and 200 PP 20+2.

The strange thing is, my ROI on the PP20's is about twice as high as the PP10's, and my PS15 ROI is about twice as high as the PP20 ROI.

I would have thought PP10 would be the easiest game, then PP20, and the PS15 would be the hardest.

Does this mean
a) the PP10 games are harder than people think?
b) I had a really bad run of luck at the PP10's?
c) I've been really lucky at PS15, or
d) my sample is too small to be meaningful?

Mainly I'm interested in if anyone has some math insight into how many games I need before I have a pretty good idea what my real average is, and how confident I can be in what I've got so far.

[AleoMagus]

Those sample sizes are pretty good but there can still be a fair amount of fluctuation.

http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/Spreadsheet

has a confidence calculator avaliable. (Type it in manually. Don't link to it). I'd also recommend searching for a recent post about the fast evolving SNG spreadsheet. It has this confidence calculator incorporated into it and will automatically update as you input new entries. At any rate, this calculator should give you some idea.

15+1 will naturally have a slightly better ROI than the other two because the vig is slightly less. This may be offset by the fact that the turbo structure makes it more of a crapshoot, but I doubt it. In fact, I think those turbos attract more nuts so I'm not surprised it is your highest ROI.

As for 10+1 vs 20+2, that may be indicative of your own progression so I would just be happy about it. Again, fluctuations may play a large part in this as well.

Regards
Brad S

PS - If you are interested in the actual math behind the confidence calculations, you should be able to find it as it has been discussed on here in recent weeks. If you have any trouble finding it, let me know and I will try to dig it up. The confidence calculator does it all so I wouldn't worry

[chill888]

FYI,

The PS turbos aren't necessarily much faster than the PP S&G's. You get less hands per level to start as the table is full, but can get more hands per level late, because the levels go up based on time not number of hands. So crunch time arrives faster (last 3 or 4 left but it is a little less of a lottery in the late game at PS.

It is not unusual to have a turbo last 100 hands. This rarely happens at a PP S&G. (personally, i like the regulyr PS S&Gs where 150 to 200 hands is quite common per tourney).

[LinusKS]

Brad, thanks for the response, and thanks x2 for the spreadsheets. Too bad PokerTracker doesn't have anything like that. (Their stats for sng's kind of blow, IMO.) If they had any brains, they'd buy your spreadsheets and add them to their product.

I'm still working with the first sheet, but the confidence calculator was exactly what I was looking for. Thanks again.

[ QUOTE ]
Those sample sizes are pretty good but there can still be a fair amount of fluctuation.

http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/Spreadsheet

has a confidence calculator avaliable. (Type it in manually. Don't link to it). I'd also recommend searching for a recent post about the fast evolving SNG spreadsheet. It has this confidence calculator incorporated into it and will automatically update as you input new entries. At any rate, this calculator should give you some idea.

15+1 will naturally have a slightly better ROI than the other two because the vig is slightly less. This may be offset by the fact that the turbo structure makes it more of a crapshoot, but I doubt it. In fact, I think those turbos attract more nuts so I'm not surprised it is your highest ROI.

As for 10+1 vs 20+2, that may be indicative of your own progression so I would just be happy about it. Again, fluctuations may play a large part in this as well.

Regards
Brad S

PS - If you are interested in the actual math behind the confidence calculations, you should be able to find it as it has been discussed on here in recent weeks. If you have any trouble finding it, let me know and I will try to dig it up. The confidence calculator does it all so I wouldn't worry

[/ QUOTE ]

[Losing all]

I'll assume you started mostly at the $10? If that is the case maybe you've made big improvements in your game. Also these samples are decent, but I'm sure if I were to break down my sng's by every 200, or 300 there would be some large differences.

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll assume you started mostly at the $10? If that is the case maybe you've made big improvements in your game. Also these samples are decent, but I'm sure if I were to break down my sng's by every 200, or 300 there would be some large differences.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I started playing PP10's before I had PokerTracker. I moved up to PP20 about the same time I got PT.

After the 200 PP20 games I moved back to down to PP10. So it was the PP20's, and then PP10's.

The PS15 games are my most recent ones.

I'm inclined to think my poor results in the PP10's are the result of bad luck, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.

[tubbyspencer]

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[ QUOTE ]


I'm inclined to think my poor results in the PP10's are the result of bad luck, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.

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It is.