20-40 question

PP online short handed 20-40 game, very late night.


Obviously a very aggressive game, you get 44 in the BB. 6 handed. UTG raises, 2nd to act 3 bets, 1 middle position cold caller, folded to you, do you raise, call, or fold in this situation.


My play to come, and I am interested in the answers to come.

Fold.


First off, six players isn't really short handed, in my opinion.


If you don't catch a 4 and there is any card 9 or higher on the flop you're probably beaten. Why throw money away on this? Ask youself what will your opponents raise with UTG, 3 bet with and cold call 3 bets with? If any of these guys catch a high pair (or already have one), they're going to pound you. So, will you fold if you don't catch or will you bluff at a scary board? Either way you're probably wasting 2 or 3 bets.


Of course, if you catch a four you're still not out of the woods as bottom set can be very expensive if someone else has a higher one or makes some other better hand.


Anyway, that's how I'd play it.


Regards,


Troy

Re: Poker Statistics: Anomalies?


why is this in the subject of all of your posts.

Even short handed, I would fold this. A three-better and a cold caller means even if a four flops, you could be looking at set over set.

Bullet fold.

I think it's close. It's probably slightly incorrect to call but I like to play pocket pairs. I call.


The question I ask myself is will I win 20 small bets strange when I win i.e. 10:1 return on my 2 small bets investment preflop? Here, if I flop a set, I am likely going to win about 17 to 22 small bets (there are already 10 strange bets in the pot when I call preflop).


Now, this next point does not apply here too well but another thing to keep in mind is that the very fact that you - a normally tight player - are calling 2 bets cold in the bb will cause your oppponents to be wary of you and this may give you some leverage postflop. This is particularly true in a ring game where say, the cut-off steal raises, the button resteal 3 bets and now, you coldcall two bets from the bb. The other 7 guys at the table are probably thinking right then and there that you are the favourite to win the hand. This does not apply here too well as there are three opponents and the original raiser is not in steal position. For that matter, neither is the three bettor.

Al,


With three opponents and a baby pair in a pot protected by its size and the aggression of your opponents, you usually have to flop a set to win. If you just call and your three opponents call you are getting 5.25 to 1 odds and if you or they cap it you are still getting 4.5 to 1 odds. You are 7.5 to 1 against flopping a set so it would seem you don’t have enough.


However, if you flop a set the post flop aggression of your opponents helps you tremendously. Mason once wrote a rule of thumb indicating that you need to win about ten times your initial investment in order to justify calling with a small pair (he uses ten times because he figures you still lose 30% of the time you flop a set). Here your initial investment is probably 2.5 small bets assuming the hand gets capped pre flop half the time (your big blind doesn’t count). There will already be about 12 bets pre flop of strange money. Can you imagine winning a pot with at least 13 more small bets donated by your opponents when you flop a set? I can and would call but acknowledge I may be overoptimistic.


Other than folding, the other option is to reraise. The problem with a reraise is that you usually lose at most one opponent (if any) leaving you two strong opponents who have at least overcards and often overpairs. This isn’t a good spot for a small pair. If you don’t lose any opponents your deception works against you out of position unless aces are out and your opponent with aces gives you tremendous action when the board comes small with your pair (he will put you on kings or queens). Still, reraising isn’t too bad if you are going to play anyway.


Regards,


Rick

Well i folded and the flop came 3 4 7. Turned paired the 7, and I would have taken down a huge $700 pot.


I personally think it might have been right to call, becuase if I did flop a set when the boards came rags, the other opponents would have raised away with their overpairs. I would then be able to punish them on the turn. I think I had enough implied odds to call preflop.

Never, ever second guess yourself. Just because you hit the flop this time, doesn't mean it's the best play (and you know it). Yesterday, as I was racking up I folded pocket 5s in middle position. The flop came Q, 5, 9 (rainbow). Oh well,...."see ya tomorrow guys" I said as I left with a smile.....

What does "strange" mean?

I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one who found this term baffling. /images/wink.gif

Depends of course on expected flop/turn/river action if you hit, but I´d say FOLD!!!