Should you fold AA and AQ suited if no one enters and its raked?

[Valuebettingtheriver]

At Oceans 11 there is an automatic 4 dollar rake and no rebate. My friend thinks you should fold AA or any group 1 hand if no one has entered because of the rake. He says the following:

there is a 40% chance the SB enters. 40% because they have to call 5 dollars instead of just 3 that the BB deals with
also about 20% of the time they may reraise with a good hand thinking you are trying to steal but lets say I come in for a raise. For my hand to pay me out full odds, I have to have both blinds call. because the rake takes 4 dollars, I come in for a 6 dollar raise. Meaning if SB and BB complete, there is now 14 dollars in the pot and that is only weighted to happen roughly 40 % of the time meaning my play with the hand will only get me full odds less than half the time, and the other half I play against the BB for 9 dollars granted I have position. Because assuming the most probable scenario where the SB folds and BB completes. Now the pot is laying you 3-1 on the flop, which is fine for a hand that is favored 60% but on 4th and 5th the pot lays you 2-1 so now it becomes unprofitable.

what do you guys think??

[Pat Southern]

Even if they do fold, and the rake is taken, you at least break even, because they are raking the blinds from you. You might as well raise and hope they come along.

[Valuebettingtheriver]

Yeah. Thats what I told him, its a break-even play.

[tipperdog]

I would flat-out refuse to play in a 3-6 game with a fixed 4-dollar drop (what you're describing is a drop, not a rake, which is based on the size of the pot). However, if I were in your situation, I would still raise.

Your friend's analysis fails to consider the prospect that the BB (or SB) holds a good 2nd best hand that will pay you off the entire way. It's not exactly "implied odds" but the concept is close. If you raise, you could win a big pot. If you fold, well, you know. (And yes, you could also lose a big pot if you play, but if you play your AA well, the chances of that are relatively slim).

[balkii]

Should you fold AA and AQ suited if no one enters and its raked?

Yes. If you are looking for other spots to save money, also fold AA if more than 4 people have already entered the pot, you are a dog to win the hand.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I would flat-out refuse to play in a 3-6 game with a fixed 4-dollar drop


[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

The only reason you should ever put money in a pot is to try to win what's already in there. "Opening" voluntarily in a $0 pot is a clear money-losing proposition: you stand to win nothing if everybody folds, and logically the only hands people will call you with are those that are favourite over you, so in the long run you'll lose.

This is of course the reason there are blinds or antes in every game of poker: so that there's something to be won.

If the house is taking the blinds out like this, there's effectively $0 in the pot, so it's incorrect to open with *any* hand. So everyone folds, the house takes the $4, and the next hand is dealt.

Doesn't seem like a good game to me!

Clearly this is not what happens in practice, since apparently this game exists and people play in it. None of these people are playing rationally! Perhaps you can exploit their mistakes to overcome the ridiculousness of the game, but even sitting in this game is a clear error.

Guy.