Bubble Play Question - How do you play this hand?

[Gator]

Is this too aggressive?

Four left in a $50 SNG (Party). I’m in seat eight. Last hand with 200/400 blinds (300/600 coming next). I know seat ten to be a solid player.

Seat 2: (3430) Fold
Seat 7: (2380) Fold
Seat 8: Me (2150) All in for 2150 with Ac 2s
Seat 10: (2040) Calls

Please critique my play and the call by seat ten.

I don’t like partial bets at this juncture (feel pot committed). My feeling is this will lead to a bubble fold 80%+ of the time. I was actually surprised that I was called with KQu.

The logic I use is 80% of the time I win the blinds ($600). Of the remaining 20%, it’s a coin toss (as in this case)about half the time or I’m a bit of a dog (even against pocket kings I have a 30% chance of winning).

Would anyone else make the call seat ten made. You could argue button goes all in there with any two and expand your range of calling hands – do you?

If you would not go all in there, what range of hands would you go all in with?

If you are seat ten, what range of hands do you call with in this situation.

Thanks.

[Benholio]

I like your push, and I like his call. You should like his call too, since you are a favorite to double up here.
With the blinds that big, you have to push with a wide range of hands from the SB if everyone else has folded. I would push with Ax, Kx, any pair, or pretty much any 2 paint here without feeling bad about it.
From the BB, I would call with ~A7 and up, ~K8 and up, and any middle pair or higher. Of course, these things can change if you have a significant read on the involved players.

[Gator]

Thanks for feedback - comments on one more hand would be appreciated (I just want to make sure I am not costing myself money by being overly aggressive with my bubble play).

Seat 6: (3125) posts small blind (150)
Seat 2: (2755) posts big blind (300)
Seat 4: (1980) ME – dealt AJ u – push all in
Seat 5: (2140) calls/raises all in
Seat 6 and 2 both fold

Was my push here correct? Would anyone bet 2X or 3X blinds instead? If so, what if reraised all in?

Does anyone play this differently?

Seat 2 had pocket queens (easy call).

[ilya]

I think this is a good, easy push.

More importantly, I am sure Jason Strasser would also say that this a good, easy push.

[MikeGuz]

Yep he would probably fold QQ here.

[codewarrior]

Both the push and the call seem pretty standard for the reasons already stated.

[durron597]

This is an really easy allin, because you have him covered. Though I would go allin here in pretty much every situation unless, like, UTG was about to post his whole stack in the next blind or something. You are a decent favorite to any hand except a PP and an ace, so you should expect to win the blinds well over 70% of the time and win at least 35% of the time when you are called (the low number is assuming the player has tight calling requirements).

[triplc]

Personally, I hate A2o as a push-in hand. The thing is, there are absolutely no hands that you dominate, and so many hands that can put you in awful shape. Any pair and any other Ax dominate you.

But, with 4 people and the blinds being what they are, I don't mind this as a steal hand, because you are likely to win the blinds.

In this situation, going for the blinds isn't terrible (you can't wait forever), but you're usually going to hate it when you get called.

Play well,

CCC

[ilya]

Frankly, Mike, I don't think you know what you're talking about.

[Lori]

This play is entirely dictated by how myself and the BB have been playing and the likelihood of others busting out soon.

You DO NOT want a caller here as you will get $0 43% of the time vs KQ red.
Even if you then win the other 57% of events, your EV is only $142.50 whilst finishing in all four positions equally gives $125, and you clearly are not going to win all of the other 57%.

Personally I tend to push all-in here, but the play leading up to it means that if I think I will be called, I'll do something else, you really should have been setting up this play throughout the tourney so he felt more obliged to fold.

Lori

[Gator]

Lori,

Thanks for peeling back the onion and given some additional input to use for the final decision. Really nice post.