Fold AA preflop here? Bubble situation...

[DrPublo]

Party 30+3 SNG last night, 5 handed. Blinds are 50/100. Stacks:

SB: 955
Hero (BB): 1245
UTG: 735
CO: 2610
Button: 2455

UTG goes all in, the two big stacks fold and the SB smoothcalls 685, leaving him with between two and three hundred chips. If I fold I have 1145 chips 4-handed or 5-handed with one very short stack. If I call I have a good chance of tripling up but also may bust.

This is the first time in ~400 SnG's I've been presented with this sitaution, although someone occassionally posts about it. Anyone fold here?

I pushed, SB actually folded for his last few hundred chips (comments on the fold?) and won against UTG's 55. But that's not the point...

The Doc

[Doubling12]

The SB must have been confused, thinking he would make the money if you busted the UTG, because now he is dead anyway.

I can't ever imagine why you'd fold AA preflop in a SNG - are you thinking of satellite situations where X # of people get the same prize?

[Cleveland Guy]

If you fold your in 4th with 4 to go - and just saw your best hand.

What does that leave you to push with later on?

Easy call - folding doesn't even guarantee you the money - or a good shot at the money.

[woodguy]

In a SnG the goal is 1st, not just limping ITM.
I could never ever come up with a good reason to fold AA in and SnG.
Even if there are 5 left, I'm the chipleader and all 4 before me go all in, I'm pushing AA to win the whole damn thing right there.

regards,
woodguy

[SossMan]

well, hypothetically, you could construct a situation where it would make sense in a SnG, but it's so rare that its hardly worth noting.

4 left blinds 100-200
SB (t9800)
BB (hero t25 after posting)
UTG (T100)
Button (T75)

You have t25 left after posting the BB, all three go all in before you, and you have AA....you call here??

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I could never ever come up with a good reason to fold AA in and SnG.

[/ QUOTE ]

That clearly can't be right...I can think of ten situations off the top of my head. For example, fist hand of a SnG, you're on the BB with AA and the ENTIRE TABLE goes all in in front of you.

We talk on this forum (and the mtt forum) all the time about folding AA preflop in tournament situations, and my question is if this is one of them. I think it's close, and even closer if we start the hand 4-handed instead of 5-handed.

Is the answer different if I told you the players at this table were very bad, and that one of the big stacks had accumulated his chips by sucking out on KK with something ridiculous like 79o. He proceeded to bust to the other big stack 1 hand later so the guy with 300 chips actually made the money!

More answers appreciated please.

The Doc

[eMarkM]

When on the bubble, what kind of hands should you fold to get into the money? No, AA isn't one of them. But there's certainly a line between what you'd play and not play in given situations.

For example, four handed and you have XX in the BB with blinds of 400/200. You have 1.5K left after posting. UTG with 500 folds, he'll be blinded out next couple of hands if he doesn't pick something up. Button with 5K raises to 1200, SB with 2.4K folds. You know that the button is situation aware and could be raising a huge range of hands here knowing that you'll be folding a lot of hands hanging on to get ITM. What hands do you play back with?

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
well, hypothetically, you could construct a situation where it would make sense in a SnG, but it's so rare that its hardly worth noting.

4 left blinds 100-200
SB (t9800)
BB (hero t25 after posting)
UTG (T100)
Button (T75)

You have t25 left after posting the BB, all three go all in before you, and you have AA....you call here??

[/ QUOTE ]

This has to be about the worst place to fold AA. You had 225 before the hand started - so if you all lose worst you get is second. If you fold - best you get is 2nd.

In order to not place - first the UTG must have the best hand - to get his 400. Then the button must have the 2nd best hand to get his side pot of 225. Then the SB must have the 3rd best hand - so he wins the side pot between you and him.

I'd be hard pressed to find a situation where i think I'm gonna have the 4th best hand - and in that exact order to any 3 hands.

[mackthefork]

Who would call here, 1st hand of a Party 10+1 or whatever level you play at.... .....you have AA in the BB all 9 other players go all in. I decided that it is wrong to call here, chip EV is positive but dollar EV is negative, who agrees, who disagrees.

Regards ML

[DrPublo]

Knowing that UTG will bust in 2-3 hands considerably reduces the range of hands I'll fight with here. Where I'd normally fight back with A7+s, A9+o and above and 88 and above (roughly), in this sitatuion its not worth "gambling" with AJs or worse or even TT or worse.

The point of my original post is that by folding AA I can get into a 4-handed situation as a short but manageable stack and when I'm pretty sure the rest of the table is not very good. Of course if I catch some bad hands I'll bust but I might bust with the AA as well.

What would you do in my original situation if UTG pushed, one of the big stacks calls AND the SB calls. Now AA against 3 hands is a favorite but not overwhelmingly so, maybe only like 60% to win hot and cold (even though the value for your money is excellent). I think in that case I fold without a second thought. Comments?

The Doc

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
We talk on this forum (and the mtt forum) all the time about folding AA preflop in tournament situations, and my question is if this is one of them. I think it's close, and even closer if we start the hand 4-handed instead of 5-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a 2/3 chance to triple up and have an equal stack with the other two, as opposed to a guarantee of being 4'th in a 4 man bubble [note that even if you only beat SB, you'll still have 900 chips]. It is not even remotely close 5 handed.

4 handed play makes this a more straightforward EV calc, but doing the numbers in my head, it's still not close.

[ QUOTE ]
Is the answer different if I told you the players at this table were very bad, and that one of the big stacks had accumulated his chips by sucking out on KK with something ridiculous like 79o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You have a higher chance of busting the other big stack if you have equal chips and he is terrible, while your play as a short stack is largely unaffected by his lack of skill (you'll be called whether he's good or bad). Therefore, you should be *happier* to call.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
note that even if you only beat SB, you'll still have 900 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, thanks.

The Doc

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 30+3 SNG last night, 5 handed. Blinds are 50/100. Stacks:

SB: 955
Hero (BB): 1245
UTG: 735
CO: 2610
Button: 2455


[/ QUOTE ]

Don't fold. All other info about the hand isn't important.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Who would call here, 1st hand of a Party 10+1 or whatever level you play at.... .....you have AA in the BB all 9 other players go all in. I decided that it is wrong to call here, chip EV is positive but dollar EV is negative, who agrees, who disagrees.

Regards ML

[/ QUOTE ]

Push here. Barring an unlikely tie, you have the best chance of finishing 1st, and if you don't, you'll split the rest of the prize. Move along to the next SnG.

[woodguy]

o.k. I'll conceed that one to you....although I may call 'cause it would give me a chance to win /images/graemlins/grin.gif

regards,
woodguy

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Barring an unlikely tie, you have the best chance of finishing 1st, and if you don't, you'll split the rest of the prize.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very true but as call is still -dollar EV, fold is the obviously correct option.

If we call our expectation is approximately $15.50 if we fold it is around $29.00.

Regards Mack

[woodguy]

This example comes from an MTT, but I think it applies.

3/4 of the way though an MTT, 1st prize is 2004 WSOP seat, 2nd is $1000, 3rd $750, 4th $250

I am 3rd stack at the table, 1 & 2 barely cover me.
By the time the action got to me 1 & 2 were all in, as well as another player.

I have AA in the BB.

Knowing that my odds are reduced by more players in the pot I still push in.
Why?
Its still the best hand you can have PF and even though the odds are reduced, you still have the best odds of any hand PF.
My AA stands up, I take a huge chip lead and end up winning the seat at the WSOP.

Since this tourney had a huge 1st place and crap after it was similar to an SnG situation where 1st is what you want.

Why fold the hand that has the best odds of winning, even if the odds have been reduced by others in the pot?

If I'm going to spend an time playing an SnG, limping into third is not an option I will take if I have a hand that can propel me into a good chance at first.

Granted, this is not exactly what you laid out with everyone going all in on the 1st hand of a SnG, but it is as close as I have experienced in a real game.

Unless it's the Satalitte situation where everyone agrees you should fold because you will win your seat without winning another hand, I have a hard time even contemplating laying it down.

regards,
woodguy

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
We talk on this forum (and the mtt forum) all the time about folding AA preflop in tournament situations, and my question is if this is one of them. I think it's close, and even closer if we start the hand 4-handed instead of 5-handed.


[/ QUOTE ]

I too have read these threads, and unless it's the situation where you will win a satalitte seat without playing the hand, I have not been convinced by any arguement to lay down the hand with the best odds to win PF.

Another good MTT example of this was a Party Super Monday that I was watching while playing SnG's.
Fnurt was on the bubble (60 pay, 61 left)
He was shortstacked UTG, but the blinds wouldn't kill him and he could fold into the money.
He gets AA UTG, pushes, beats 2 people to build his stack and goes on to take 3rd and a nice paycheck.

I'm not trying to confuse proper theory by being results oriented, but even in theory AA still has the best chance to win any hand PF, why give up that edge?

regards,
woodguy

[durron597]

Note: whether I would fold AA here depends on the prize structure. Assume the tourney is 4 handed, I have T400, the blinds are T100/T200, and everyone else on the table has exactly T3200 before posting. UTG goes allin. Button goes allin. SB goes allin. I would fold, because with a stack as short as mine I'm not going to get first anway most likely (even if I call and win, I will still only have T1600 to the winner's T8400, so I'm still a 5:1 dog).

Let's do some math: If I fold, I have T200, and the winner has T9800. I win here 2% of the time, so my EV = .98x + .02y, where x is the second place prize and y is the third place prize.

If I call, assume I win 40% of the time. Then I win the HU match 16% of the time, and lose it 84% of the time. But I only make it that far 40% of the time. Assuming the prize for 4th is zero, my EV = .40 * (.84x + .16y) + .60 * (0)= .336x + .064y.

Now let's compare. I lose an EV of .644x to gain an EV of .044y. So .044y would have to be greater than .644x for me to call. That means that y would have to be 14.6 times greater than x in order for me to call. If y is a WSOP seat (value $11000), and x was $650 (a common prize value in the $33 rebuys), then it is correct to call here with AA (14.6x = $9513 approximately). However in a SnG, a prize for first is only 1.666 times greater, and thus it is incorrect to call.

[SossMan]

although I may call 'cause it would give me a chance to win

well, it's a free country, but you would clearly be wrong.

As for your WSOP example, this isn't really close, the prize structure is very, very steep, so you would be more willing to take any +EV situation...clearly this is +EV, so you take it.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I too have read these threads, and unless it's the situation where you will win a satalitte seat without playing the hand, I have not been convinced by any arguement to lay down the hand with the best odds to win PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there's a difference between best odds to win THAT HAND, and best odds to win the tournament. There's something to be said for losing the battle but winning the war...

As it stands, most people seem to be against folding AA preflop ever, or at least in this situation. I think at this point I can say with certainty that I made the right call by pushing instead of folding, but I dont think that's always the case.

I also think that the option becomes more weighted towards folding in a MTT rather than a SnG, where the money is generally more top-weighted and you've also invested quite a big of time and energy to get to the bubble. In those cases it might be worth giving up a +chipEV situation in order to increase your $EV.

Thanks for the responses. Next time this comes up and its a more dicey bubble I'll repost.

The Doc

[Cleveland Guy]

SOS - cn you please do that math for me how it's better to fold with 25 chips left, when you are going to most likely get 3rd. Vs. Playing the hand and having a good chance of getting at least 2nd?

[gergery]

Maybe I’m cranky today, but these “Fold AA preflop” threads seem to be of almost no value. If you never folded AA preflop for the rest of your life you would only be making a mistake in the tiniest of extremely defined and narrow circumstances.

Surely we can think of situations that are more common, and where making a mistake has greater risk, to discuss.

This has to be Sklansky’s most misused example.

--Greg

[Thythe]

Agreed, I probably make 50 other mistakes daily that are more costly than the AA fold/call dilemna.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 30+3 SNG last night, 5 handed. Blinds are 50/100. Stacks:

SB: 955
Hero (BB): 1245
UTG: 735
CO: 2610
Button: 2455

UTG goes all in, the two big stacks fold and the SB smoothcalls 685, leaving him with between two and three hundred chips. If I fold I have 1145 chips 4-handed or 5-handed with one very short stack. If I call I have a good chance of tripling up but also may bust.


[/ QUOTE ]
You have them covered, so you can't bust out.

People bring up the idea of folding AA preflop because it is so outrageous. It is wrong by a lot in the vast majority of situations, including this one.

I'll use the independent chip model.

Suppose the hero folds AA.
<ul type="square">Assume the SB wins 60% (should be a favorite to call, though this doesn't affect the calculations much if it is wrong). That leaves stacks of 1145, 2610, 2455, and 1790. The hero wins 14.3%, places 17.4%, and is third 23.6%. This is worth 17.1% of the prize pool.

The other 40% of the time, UTG wins, and the stacks are 1145, 1570, 2610, 2455, and 220. This is worth 16.8% of the prize pool.

The average is 17.0% of the prize pool.[/list]
Suppose the hero pushes with AA and is called.
<ul type="square"> Suppose AA would win 65% of the time, leaving stacks of 2935, 2610, and 2455. The hero wins 36.7%, places 24.0%, and is third 29.3%. This is worth an average of 34.4% of the prize pool.

Suppose the SB would win 20% of the time, eliminating UTG and crippling the hero. The stacks would be 290, 2610, 2455, and 2645. This is worth 5.2% of the prize pool.

Another possibility is that UTG wins the main pot, and the Hero wins the side pot, eliminating the SB. I'll assume this happens 4/5 of the remaining 15%, 12%. The stacks are 730 (Hero), 2205, 2610, and 2455. This is worth 11.8% of the prize pool.

Finally, the hero is crippled and no one is eliminated if UTG wins the main pot and the SB wins the side pot. Assume this happens 3% of the time. The stacks are 290, 2205, 2610, 2455, and 440. This is worth 4.9% of the prize pool.

The average is 25.0% of the prize pool. [/list]
Pushing with AA appears to be right by 8.0% of the prize pool, or $80 in a $100+9 SNG, several times the advantage a winning player may have over an entire SNG. It's not close. If you are a winning player, folding AA will reverse hours of accumating small advantages. (If you are a losing player, folding AA is pretty efficient.) In fact, it's right to call with AA here even if AA were to win only 50% of the time and if there were no equity left after losing the main pot.

Consider folding AA if it titillates you, but even taking into account the nonlinear values of chips, folding would be horribly wrong.