Proposition: Salma Hayek is an attractive woman.

[bisonbison]

Oh look, it's everybody's favorite, an AA hand about protecting your hand!

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $4.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12.66 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (8.33 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16.33 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 20.33 BB

[SnakeRat]

Raise flop, make em call 2.

You only should wait when you can gain a lot of equity on the turn, and you won't be able to make them fold on the flop.

[pokerkai]

I agree, raise the flop.
There are so many people behind you, make it as difficult as possible for them to call.

If you were in late position, and there were already callers in between you and the initial better I would be more inclined to wait.

[MoreWineII]

I think I prefer a flop raise here too.

[cold_cash]

I think one of the main goals behind the flop call is to encourage UTG to bet out again on the turn. Correct?

If you raise the flop everyone behind you will still be getting 7 to 1 and better on a call, so that's not all the discouraging to gutshots and 5 outers.

If you wait you can make that closer to around 4.5 to 1 on the turn. Makes sense. Is it right? I don't know... I'm still struggling with some of this stuff, but I do have to admit I've made a pretty convincing argument to all you flop raisers. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

(Just wanted to say I was a little dissapointed with the lack of racey Salma Hayek pictures in this post.)

[bisonbison]

I think one of the main goals behind the flop call is to encourage UTG to bet out again on the turn. Correct?

yes. I would bet this myself if it was checked to me, but the opportunity seemed too good.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
(Just wanted to say I was a little dissapointed with the lack of racey Salma Hayek pictures in this post.)

[/ QUOTE ]

[brian0729]

This looks textbook to me sir.

[nepenthe]

I would dare-guess one of those callers had a passively played J. Having said that, the flop is somewhat dangerous and I would be inclinced to raise it then and there.

[brian0729]

Isnt it Selma?

[bisonbison]

Isnt it Selma?

oh no, my friend. You have much to learn.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000161/

[brian0729]

Right you are. You just cant trust anything you read on the internet. Stupid Google. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[balkii]

Here we go (http://www.radiofree.com/profiles/salma_hayek/gallery01.shtml)

[brian0729]

See! Cant trust anything

http://mrski.com/mrskin/selma_hayek_nude.htm

[Blarg]

What a gyp! The wrong head did the clicking.

[cold_cash]

THAT'S what I'm talkin' about.

Very nicely done.

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
I think one of the main goals behind the flop call is to encourage UTG to bet out again on the turn. Correct?

yes. I would bet this myself if it was checked to me, but the opportunity seemed too good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another advantage is that a turn raise is much more likely to knock out draws than a flop raise.

Stu

[bisonbison]

Another advantage is that a turn raise is much more likely to knock out draws than a flop raise.

Exactly.

[SnakeRat]

You just let any gutshot or someone that got a piece make a correct call on the flop, in a big pot.
This call could easily cost you the pot.

I think its a mistake and not close.

[bisonbison]

You just let any gutshot or someone that got a piece make a cheap call on the flop. This call could easily cost you the pot.

Anyone with a pair has the odds to call a flop raise.

The pot is so large that there is little I can do to protect it on the flop, so I exchange the possibility of being sucked out upon on the turn for some protection against river suckouts. But I'm still learning when this is appropriate, so...

[SnakeRat]

Does somebody with JT for example have odds to call 2? I think a lot of people would fold that.

Gutshots are an important concern I would think.

Edit: Also I forgot back door flushes.

[bisonbison]

If JT was the first person asked to call the raise on the flop, he'd be getting 16:2 (assuming the original bettor will call) with 5 outs against AA. So it's a slight mistake. But anyone after 1 caller will be getting the right odds.

Will anyone who cold-called with JT preflop fold this with a pair and runner-runner straight hopes?

[Trix]

I think it´s close here so it probably doesn´t matter much on this one. If it was a little bigger I would wait and a little smaller i would raise for sure.

[arkady]

she absolutely is, bison, absolutely is. *nod*

[BigEndian]

I like waiting till the turn to raise here bison...on a non-threatening card. When the J comes off, I'm calling and going for over-calls rather than raising and pulling by nuts out of my kidneys when I'm 3-bet.

- Jim

[ddubois]

5 years before she was in Desparado:
[ QUOTE ]
"Dream On" (1990) playing "Carmela" in episode: "Domestic Bliss" (episode # 3.20) 10 October 1992

[/ QUOTE ]
Whoa, I did not know this! I used to watch this hilarious adult sitcom religously back in college. The star of the show was always banging hot chicks, and they often showed boobie. So the question of great importance is: Does this episode show Salma Hayek's boobies?

[Keats13]

I think you're probably better off waiting for the turn in general here, but the risk you run when you do that is that sometimes you don't get to raise the turn when a bad card comes off. For example, if the turn was a Q, you clearly cannot raise the turn. I don't think the J is much better here. I've been trying to value bet a lot more (thanks in part to a certain poster booing my weak/tightness in another thread), but I'm still not quite ready to raise this turn.

[MAxx]

I would raise flop and make people call 2 cold here in this position. I understand your strategy, and while it maybe superior... I have noticed something several times over in similar posts. People are starting to make this play more, with the thinking that they will raise turn when a safe card hits on turn to protect hand. However, when the unsafe card hits they raise anyway. So what seems to happen when takeing a step back is that you are just calling when you are an obvious favorite, but raising when you are a likely dog. Just my two cents.

[Saborion]

I believe raising the turn is a must. The pot is big, and you want to start folding gutshots out. Or?

Although I think I'd raise the flop, since that would give the first people in behind pot odds of 15:2 = 7.5:1

[StellarWind]

Tough hand. The longer I look at it the more things I see.

Let's look at this from the perspective of AT, a two-card gutshot to the nuts. You made me pay 0.5 BB for about an 8% chance at a 20 BB final pot and knocked me out on the turn. Profit = (20 * 8%) - 0.5 = 1.1 BB. The alternative play of raising the flop and turn keeps me in to the river. I pay 2 BB for about a 16% chance at an 18 BB pot. Profit = (18 * 16%) - 2 = 0.9 BB.

Thanks to you I've made a small extra profit. Because of your play I saved 1.5 BB in drawing costs and gave up on my second card. That's about a wash. You also juiced my implied odds by raising after I turned my straight. I kept that extra money and it made the difference for me. Of course I only got it because I'm smart and folded the turn. I've heard of a few players who might have called again and lost money instead of making money.

However, I did not make my extra profit at your expense. You have the hand that wins when no one makes anything. My king outs probably fall in that category after I fold. You probably picked up a 5% increase in your winning chances. That's 1 BB. This is in contrast to hands like Qx and Jx that got virtually nothing when I folded. They got stuck with the bill for both of us when you increased their drawing costs.

Another category of draw is the small pocket pair like 55. This flop is an easy call for 1 SB because the implied odds on a set are out-of-sight. This pot is going to be worth 20 BB at the end and a made set has an awesome chance of collecting. Net profit about 1/2 SB instead of 0 for being forced out. Allowing this hand to take a card off costs everyone except the straight draws money, but mostly you pay because his outs are "blanks". However this is a rare hand and not a big factor in the overall evaluation of your play.

Waiting for the turn hurts any draw that is committed to seeing the river. That includes queens, jacks, threes, and OESDs as well as anyone else who is foolish enough to come without odds. It also may hurt hands like Ax and Kx that are drawing dead but might foolishly take one off for 1 SB.

The beneficiaries are yourself and the draws that are sized properly to draw one card and fold. These are gutshots, pocket pairs, and strong backdoors like K /images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Overall waiting until the turn looks to be a big winner ... if you can count on UTG to bet again with the second-best hand. That's the big question. If he doesn't plan on betting again unless he improves his hand your flop call will be a disaster. Do you have a read on this player? You probably need at least a 2/3 turn bet rate when he doesn't improve to make up for all the times he checks and all the times he bets a better hand.

My experience is that most of my opponents are chickens when it comes to real scary situations like a dangerous board, many flop callers, and a preflop raiser. They tend to check their queens and jacks on the turn.

On the other hand, someone behind you might raise the flop with a queen or OESD. Then you can make a completely new plan and profitably call-raise.

[bisonbison]

Thanks for all the responses guys. the BB had something like J7s or some such, it doesn't matter.

What I've found is that whether or not it is the right choice (and I think this decision is pretty close), it is a little harder to swallow losing when you wait until the turn because the positive reinforcement (opponents folding hands that would have come in on the river) is hidden and the decision to wait seems to lay the burden of losing more on you. That doesn't mean it's not right to wait in certain situations, just that I really have to analyze those situations because losing after waiting is more frustrating.

[Zfish]

Please check out my newbie-reasoning..

I wouldn't make a play like this. The main reasons being:

1. Not representing strength on the flop will promote them calling the turn more in general, because they will remember that weakness. (flop raise, followed by turn bet seems more scary to me..) I don't expect small stakes players to expect you to play as tricky as you do, therefore it won't work.

2. The second reason concerns added information that can be drawn from the situation. The response of the initial flop bettor to your flop raise, and the action he takes in the turn provides you with the information you need, while in your case, gathering of information is less, and later..

I can think of a lot of other small reasons, but these two would be the main determining factors for me to raise preflop, and then base my decisions on the turn card, the information the intial bettor provides you with etc. preferring flexibility as opposed to the rigidity of your plan. If a huge scare card comes you cannot go back to the flop to raise..

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Not representing strength on the flop will promote them calling the turn more in general, because they will remember that weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not correct.

Psychologically speaking, calling the flop and raising the turn sounds very threatening. Many players typically slowplay hands in this fashion and most players automatically recognize this.

My instant reaction would be that raise-the-flop-and-bet-the-turn sounds like KK or AQ: one big pair trying to protect itself. My reaction to call-the-flop-and-raise-the-turn is QQ or JJ: a hand so strong it doesn't care about protection; it just wants to trap people for lots of money.

One of the objectives of plays similar to Bison's is to fool players into folding draws that should not be folded. The player actually has pot odds to draw to two pair or trips, but the fear of drawing dead to a set makes them fold.

[ QUOTE ]
The second reason concerns added information that can be drawn from the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
This hand is an example of the limitations of this idea. What do you want to know? Nothing anyone can do should convince Bison to fold such a strong hand in a big pot. All he can do is be really aggressive until someone hits him back. Then he calls down. You learn everything you need to know at showdown.

Information is only valuable when it has a concrete use. Too many players make plays to "find out where I stand" when all they need to know is that their hand is too good to ever fold because of the pot odds.

[CountDuckula]

[ QUOTE ]
Please check out my newbie-reasoning..

I wouldn't make a play like this. The main reasons being:

1. Not representing strength on the flop will promote them calling the turn more in general, because they will remember that weakness. (flop raise, followed by turn bet seems more scary to me..) I don't expect small stakes players to expect you to play as tricky as you do, therefore it won't work.

2. The second reason concerns added information that can be drawn from the situation. The response of the initial flop bettor to your flop raise, and the action he takes in the turn provides you with the information you need, while in your case, gathering of information is less, and later..

I can think of a lot of other small reasons, but these two would be the main determining factors for me to raise preflop, and then base my decisions on the turn card, the information the intial bettor provides you with etc. preferring flexibility as opposed to the rigidity of your plan. If a huge scare card comes you cannot go back to the flop to raise..

[/ QUOTE ]

You really need to read Ed Miller's book (Small Stakes Hold 'Em). Last week, before my copy arrived, that's exactly what my reasoning would have been. But now I think I understand things a little better. In loose games, you can't protect big hands with small bets. You'll just build the pot to the point where it becomes correct for them to draw. What is effective is calling the flop, then using the big bets as a bludgeon. Either they loose-call you (and if they're drawing, their calls will now be incorrect), or they fold. Either way, your EV is greater than it would have been if you'd given them the correct pot odds to draw. You may lose that particular hand, but the times you win will more than compensate for the times you lose.

I will admit that I'm still pretty green at applying Ed's concepts, so what I just said might not be 100% accurate (or it might be over-simplified), but I do think my game has improved drastically over the last few days, since reading SSHE for the first time. And I expect that to continue, as I read it again and burn the concepts into my brain. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I can't thank Ed enough for writing SSHE! I believe that it's already paid for itself. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-Mike

P.S. -- With respect to the subject line: Well, duh! /images/graemlins/wink.gif