Four players with same hand?

[citizenkn]

This one is on behalf of my dad, the "online poker is rigged and this hand proves it" guy.

Four players cap pre-flop. Flop comes T-J-Q, and after every street is capped by all four players, all of them turn over A-K for a four way split pot.

So you math whizzes can see which question comes next----what are the odds on four players all getting dealt A-K?

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
So you math whizzes can see which question comes next----what are the odds on four players all getting dealt A-K?

[/ QUOTE ]

better than the odds that they all flop the nuts.

[citizenkn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you math whizzes can see which question comes next----what are the odds on four players all getting dealt A-K?

[/ QUOTE ]

better than the odds that they all flop the nuts.

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Seems to me that the odds of flopping a straight for four players holding AK are identical to the odds of one player flopping a straight with AK (about 300 to 1, right?). That's why it's only the hole card pre-flop odds I'm asking about.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems to me that the odds of flopping a straight for four players holding AK are identical to the odds of one player flopping a straight with AK (about 300 to 1, right?). That's why it's only the hole card pre-flop odds I'm asking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

It strikes me that the odds of a QJT flop should be better when 4 people have AK, no? Intuitively, you're sure that at least 4 people don't hold any of the QJT cards, raising the probability that there are still 4 of each necessary card 'live' for the flop.

[aloiz]

Assuming a 10 handed-game.

C(10,4) * 4! * 4! /( C(52,2) * C(50,2) * C(48,2) * C(46,2) ) =~ 6.38E-8 or roughly 15,677,877:1

aloiz

[citizenkn]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming a 10 handed-game.

C(10,4) * 4! * 4! /( C(52,2) * C(50,2) * C(48,2) * C(46,2) ) =~ 6.38E-8 or roughly 15,677,877:1

aloiz

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, math is fun.....

Thanks for the help......

[stinkypete]

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better than the odds that they all flop the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems to me that the odds of flopping a straight for four players holding AK are identical to the odds of one player flopping a straight with AK (about 300 to 1, right?). That's why it's only the hole card pre-flop odds I'm asking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, the odds of flopping the nut straight improve if you know that all 4 are holding the same hand.

i guess i wasn't clear, i just meant that while the probability of 4 people all having AK is extremely low, the probability that all four have AK AND flop the nut straight is ridiculously stupidly low.

the odds of that happening on any given hand are probably lower than the odds that you'll make a royal flush on your next 2 hands.

[theredpill]

I don't think it proves that it is rigged. Does anyone else? If you saw 5 people all with AK then I would say, yeah.

[Fiery Jack]

I could equally say, if it never, ever, ever happens, that proves it's rigged.