Very "tellable" sign of AA/KK?

[Saborion]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t835)
SB (t1600)
BB (t775)
UTG (t1620)
UTG+1 (t1060)
MP1 (t730)
MP2 (t640)
Hero (t740)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t30, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t30, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises to t775 (All-In)</font>
<font color="green">Ok. Someone pushing an amount like that this early. Almost bound to be AA or KK right? Or is this an easy call, trying to get a decent stack and thus being almost guaranteed to get itm, and if busting, well, time is money when it comes to tours? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Oh, and is my pre-flop raise about right?</font>

[TexInAtl]

I agree with T.J. Cloutier in that AK is a drawing hand, and in this situation, I can't see anyway that you are ahead in the hand. Best case, you're a small dog to an underpair, and worst case you're nearly drawing dead.
AK is a hand that you want to see a flop with. Because of this, I think the 5X raise is a bit of an overbet here. I think that a 3X or 4X raise is plenty. Now you've got yourself into a situation where if you lay it down, you've lost more chips than necessary, and if you call, you're just hoping to catch something.

[LinusKS]

I think your raise was about right. I might have raised slightly less - to 125, but I won't argue with it.

As for your first question, I don't know. If this is a $10 game, this is the kind of thing you see all the time. The villain could have AA or KK, or AK or AQ, or a mid or small pair, or absolute garbage.

If you pinned me down, I'd tell you there's a 30% chance he has AA or KK, and another 30-40% chance he has some other pair or the same hand that you have (AK).

In other words, you're going to be the favorite a minority of the times, and a small to large dog mos of the rest.

The problem I have here is with the blind structure. You fold this hand, and you'll have 590 chips left, the small stack at the table. That's not too much of a problem now, but the blinds rise quickly at Party, and if you don't catch another big hand soon, you're likely to find yourself all-in with a much weaker hand than AK.

Bottom line, I think a call is probably right here. That's not so much because I think that's good poker - to call an all-in early with AK - but because of how rapidly the blinds increase at Party, and because of how recklessly aggressive so many of players there are.

[Saborion]

Drawing hand, maybe, but I still have to charge people to see the flop, don't I? There was T105 in the pot when it was my turn to act. Would a raise as low as T100 been more appropriate? T110 perhaps?

As it were, the pot contained T845 and it would cost me T590 to call. If he had a pair QQ or lower, I had the odds to call. Against AK I'm just about even money. Against AA or KK I'm drawing slim. Yet, it was an all in raise after all, so I figure I have to put him on AA or KK more often than not.

[Losing all]

Is this a 10$-30$ game? Anyways, I love suited slick, and I'm willing to go to an allin battle with it every time(at party), but it is a drawing hand. You asked about your raise, I say it's good, but on the low end for me. I'm happy to take down T105, so I say make it real tough to call, T200-300.

As far as the the allin, no brainer, call! unless you have real knowledge on the player being a total rock. (even this can be faulty, you wont find many tighter than me early, and I could make this move on you with the same hand, unsoooted)

[adanthar]

How many hands has he played thus far? If it's over 2, and this is $30 or lower, autocall.

[chill888]

Personally, just having a BB put in an all-in raise is not that big a sign of AA, KK. It depends very much on the player and the stakes, but I'd usually call with AKs the only hand you're in a Horrible situation against is AA.-- KK is not good but you have decent shot. Everything else is 50 /50 or MUCH better.

At the lower limits (depending on guy) I think you have a better chance of being dominant than dominated here. Crazy dude with A6o being aggressive, or KQo looking pretty.

Now, a REAL tell tale sign of AA (and maybe KK) is an early check that then reraises all-in preflop to a later bet. Then I'd rip up my cards and run away screaming.

Good luck.

[irieraise]

Here's my $0.02 on AK. It's rather long (OK...more like my $1.02), but then, AK's a complicated subject. Almost all good poker players consider AK both (a) a very powerful hand (ranks about 5th of all starting hands, behind only AA, KK, QQ, and JJ) and (b) a very dangerous hand that gets a lot of players broke or in big trouble. These 2 facts about AK appear contradictory, but here's how to reconcile them -- you should NOT, in general, be CALLING huge bets/raises or CALLING all-in with AK. IMHO, that's the mistake 95% of all players make with AK. Skalnsky says to get the money in pre-flop with AK and see all 5 cards since it's so difficult for you to be in really bad shape (vs. only AA and KK), and you might be way ahead (vs. any weaker Ace). But, I guarantee Sklansky wouldn't recommend making a standard raise with AK and then calling all-in with the rest of your stack, when you get popped 3 or more times what you have just raised (under most circumstances...of course, there comes a time in many tournaments when you are forced to race with AK). To fully realize the value of AK pre-flop, you need to be the one making the big move with it, not calling off your stack.

Back to Saborion's hand, I think his raise is about right. You really need to find out where you are pre-flop with AK, and that's what a pot-sized raise can tell you. A pot-sized move would have been $165 total, so his raise to $150 is pretty close. Betting less is dangerous, especially with UTG (chip-leader) having limped in with all those chips. If you don't bet enough, he'll auto-call with a whole host of hands, and therefore you've gained very little information about his hand.

Now, when BB goes all-in, put yourself in his position. He started the hand in no immediate danger of going broke, but had just a few more chips than the last place guy. If YOU had AA or KK here, what would you do? I certainly wouldn't push all in and try to blow everyone out of the pot. I may make a minimum reraise back at you, trying to (a) build the pot a bit more if 2 people call, (b) thin the field slightly (I'd want at least one of the original limpers to fold), and (c) bait you or UTG chip-leader to go all-in over the top of me. If I pick up AA or KK in the BB here with all this action, my goal is to be chip-leading this tournament when this hand is over. That's unlikely if I push all-in, so his all-in move almost certainly isn't AA or KK.

So what is it? Again, put yourself in his shoes. He's got to be worried about what you might have...after all, you did make it $150 to go. But, it's statistically most likely you have 2 big unpaired cards, right? His going all-in now indicated he isn't wild about playing his hand post-flop, probably because of the likelihood of overcards to his holding coming and making things tricky. I think it's most likely he has JJ or TT. 77, 88, 99, and QQ wouldn't surprise me either. Neither would AK or AQ, but that's not real likely since you have an A and a K. Something crazy like JTs is always a possibility too, especially at the lower limits at Party, but it would be horrible poker for you to put him on any of the above hands, and then call hoping he's on this kind of bizarre semi-bluff. Bottom line is that you are almost certainly behind slightly (his JJ vs. your AK).

So finally, what to do about it? Assuming you have zero or very little info about how the BB plays, the decision's easy...you fold. You can feel confident in that fold if you played AK correctly (which you did). You made a pot-sized raise to find out where you were, and the BB told you where you were...behind. You obviously aren't wild about losing $150 chips, but it's infinitely better than being broke, which is where you'll be 55% of the time if you call his pair. The lost $150 knocks you down to $590, which is still PLENTY of chips relative to the blinds (19 times the BB is a solid 9 or 10 BB's away from panic time). If you are one of the better players at the table (the very fact that you post here almost ensures that), you know you can EASILY come back to make the money from $590 at the $15-$30 level, so you don't need to take this huge chance now.

Hope this helps some with AK. Any thoughts?

Good luck,

Mark

[Losing all]

I think that was a well thought out post, with some fuzzy logic.

1) he could flip over JJ or QQ and I call without hesitation. A coin flip is better than a coin flip when you have pot odds.

2) I can't speak for others here, but I feel I'm a good player. that being said I don't think I can EASILY make the money with T590 as the short stack out of 8 players. I'm not what you'd call scared in this situation, but I still don't care for it. I find myself in this spot often, and I pull many 1st's 2nd's and 3rd's out of my ass from here, but I'm never in this sad position after folding ak's to a reraise.

3) Don't "put yourself in his position" when he is likely to be a moron in love with AJo, maybe worse.

4) as someone else mentioned in this thread "time is money" Even if my analysis is way off on everything else (and I doubt it is) figure in $ev AND hour ev this call becomes even more clear. Maybe if you play 10 games a week as a passtime and feel you can world series your way into the money on a regular basis it's a good laydown (I still doubt this), if you're playing 50-200 a week as many here do, it's just not worth a fold. *possible exception being good notes, or a great read, mostly at the highest limits*

one other smaller point, I don't have the original post in front of me, but you mention one of the limpers having a large stack. I didn't notice this when I first replied to the thread, this gives me even more incentive to make a larger than pot sized raise. Get his ass out of there.

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]
1) he could flip over JJ or QQ and I call without hesitation. A coin flip is better than a coin flip when you have pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. If he had JJ or QQ I'm not going to call. When you say you have the odds to call talking about +chip EV, not $EV. I'm pretty sure that if you're a winning player, taking this is a -$EV play.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't speak for others here, but I feel I'm a good player. that being said I don't think I can EASILY make the money with T590 as the short stack out of 8 players

[/ QUOTE ]

Good ITM % is about 40% - so good players can't easily get ITM with 800 chips out of 10 players. But this I think is irrelevant - it doesn't matter if you're going to get itm, it's all just about EV. I think for me, I'd rather keep playing with T590 chips than go all-in on a 50/50.

[ QUOTE ]
as someone else mentioned in this thread "time is money" Even if my analysis is way off on everything else (and I doubt it is) figure in $ev AND hour ev this call becomes even more clear

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess time does help some way in your analysis, but I still don't think it's a call.

[Losing all]

Keep playing with 590 chips. Not the worst strategy in the world, maybe you'll catch AK's.

Not trying to be a jerk, but I think you see my point. Man I'm the fuggin rock of rocks (and so rarely CALL allin), but sometimes you gotta fight, and I can't think of a better time than with a stack already in the pot and an almost monster hand, in hand, early in the game.

I had a hard time adjusting to the UB structure/players. Judging by what I've been reading here lately I think many of the stars and UB players around here have problems moving to party.

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep playing with 590 chips. Not the worst strategy in the world, maybe you'll catch AK's.

Not trying to be a jerk, but I think you see my point. Man I'm the fuggin rock of rocks (and so rarely CALL allin), but sometimes you gotta fight, and I can't think of a better time than with a stack already in the pot and an almost monster hand, in hand, early in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

What we're discussing is specifically calling all-in when you have AKo against QQ or JJ. This isn't "fighting", we're not discussing a style of play here, we are discussing one specific hand and one specific move.

I, too, am not trying to be a jerk, I just think you took what I've written far out of context.

[ QUOTE ]

I had a hard time adjusting to the UB structure/players. Judging by what I've been reading here lately I think many of the stars and UB players around here have problems moving to party.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if this is directed to me, but I play 95% of the time on Party, and have never played on UB.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. If he had JJ or QQ I'm not going to call. When you say you have the odds to call talking about +chip EV, not $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I follow.

First, the pot is offering me T845 and I have to pay T590, meaning I get get pot odds of about ~.7:1
If he has QQ, I'm going to win at least 45 % of the times, making this a must call.

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 781594 45.65 922599 53.88 8111 0.47 0.459
Qs Qc 922599 53.88 781594 45.65 8111 0.47 0.541

Then take into consideration how fast the blinds increase, making it somewhat hard to keep on going from here without good cards. Not to mention that time is money. Win a lot and have a good shot at getting itm, or bust and start up a new one.

Doesn't really matter though. Against QQ I have to call. It's as simply as that. I suppose it might've been different if it was around bubble time or something, but even then I think I'd rather go for a nice stack than fighting to get the last prize.

Or am I way off track here?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Or am I way off track here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. You are exactly right.

[Benholio]

You can't just crunch the pot odds and your chances of winning to see if it is appropriate to call a hand in the early stages of a tournament. Something that is +chips EV isn't always going to be +money EV. There are tons of posts/essays/books that deal with this (tournament theory) in great detail. You would really need a big overlay on your pot odds to put all of your chips in on a coin flip in the early rounds of a SnG.
If you want an extreme example just to show you the logic, imagine all 9 other players went all-in pre-flop on hand #1 and you have pocket aces in the big blind. Should you call?
This is definately a +EV move as far as chips are concerned...

[durron597]

Of course you are correct. Read my post in the fold AA/KK preflop bubble that I just posted. However that is such an unusual situation (it really only crops up when you have either multiple EQUAL stacks going allin or much bigger than you NEARLY EQUAL stacks going allin.

[gergery]

Easy call.

You are now risking 590 to win 815. Laying you almost 1.4 to 1. Even vs. QQ you are only a 1.2 to 1 dog, and that’s worst case, as AA/KK is much more likely to raise to 350 or so to keep you in, not try to blow you out. You are up vs. a pair maybe ~66% of the time, and other junk like AT or KQ about 33% of time.

Good players are good players because they call when they have advantages, not because they fold EV+ situations when they’ve put in 20% of their stack in, hoping to vaguely outplay their opponents later. Search for Raymer’s posts on why you shouldn’t pass up moderate edges early in a tourney.

And if you were willing to fold this, then you should have raised smaller to 100, or even flatcalled to start with so you could “outplay them on flop”. And for the record, TJ’s advice is irrelevant since he is playing against good opponents with deep stacks, and you are playing against bad opponents with shallowstacks.

--Greg

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't just crunch the pot odds and your chances of winning to see if it is appropriate to call a hand in the early stages of a tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know.

[ QUOTE ]
Something that is +chips EV isn't always going to be +money EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know.

[ QUOTE ]
There are tons of posts/essays/books that deal with this (tournament theory) in great detail.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm sure there are.

[ QUOTE ]
You would really need a big overlay on your pot odds to put all of your chips in on a coin flip in the early rounds of a SnG.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I sure don't. Especially not with Party's sng structure. If I fold here, I'll be able to recover, but I'll also be in somewhat bad shape. I'd rather double up and have a good shot at getting itm, than struggling to survive only to finish 4-7th. And considering I'm only in bad shape vs AA or KK, I think I have call here.

[ QUOTE ]
If you want an extreme example just to show you the logic, imagine all 9 other players went all-in pre-flop on hand #1 and you have pocket aces in the big blind. Should you call?

[/ QUOTE ]
Extreme, yes. Not quite the same thing though, imo. I wouldn't call since I would, in most cases, be guaranteed 2nd place. And with the blinds being as low as they are, I have a decent chance of winning it all. If it weren't the first hand and I had the other players covered by a little more than a margin, then I might call though. Would it be wrong?

[poboy]

I don't think this is an easy fold in a SNG, in a MTT I would quickly fold. However on Party, I have seen people go all-in with hands as bad as K9o and get called by even worse hands(it is truly amazing). I don't know about you but if I had a big pocket pair in the blind I want to maximize the hand. Going all-in and forcing everyone to fold is not a very good way to do this. I think most people would smooth-call you here or make a small re-raise with AA or KK. So I say call him and bust his K10 or QJ. If you're wrong at least you haven't invested much time and can start another one quickly. If you're right, you now have a nice cushion. Just my opinion......

[housenuts]

this is the kind of thing you must think about before. if you decide you're going to lay it down to a re-raise then only raise it up to 100 or so. If you decide you're playing this hand no matter what then bring it in for alot more that way you are pot committed and not faced with a tough decision.

I think you have to call here because as someone said the blinds are rising fast and you don't want to be shortstack.

if you lose you move onto another tournament and win, as opposed to staying shortstacked, grinding it out, and finishing just out of the money after over an hour of playing.

[Saborion]

Ok. Anyway. I called due to the pot odds, the chance of him having a pair QQ-, and the fact that I would be better of doubling up or busting and starting a new sng than being "crippled" with only T590.

He had A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Flop 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Turn T /images/graemlins/club.gif (2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif)
River Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif (T /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif)

If I'm to fold to an allin like this, I believ I should have raised a little less pre-flop. But since I believe I raised just about the right amount, I guess I have to call. And as many other said, AA/KK will often make a smaller reraise instead of pushing it, unless they have a smaller stack than what my opponent had.