Math Question

[RPatterson]

Down to 5 with 950 chips and 150bb I moved in on the button with K7 and the big stack in the bb called with TJ and hit. I was thinking to myself about what a stuipid call that was but then I wondered if he was actually getting the right odds, if he could see my hole cards.

Roughly he's calling 800 to win 1150. 800 divided by 1150 is 69%. Was this a plus ev by 9% or negative ev?

Also he had like 4000 chips and I had been very quiet. Do you guys like his call at all? It might have been plus EV since I held K7 but I think in general it was horrible.

[MikeGuz]

Law of the tournament jungle - big stacks take on small ones to bust them out hang the odds. I was in a tournament last week 5 left I had 52s on the button and called both blinds who were all in and it was a very small part of my stack. My job was to try to bust them out.

It's strategy not math here.

[RPatterson]

It's strategy for the big stack to try to bust short stacks on the bubble by calling with inferior hands? Time to rethink your strategy.

[Gramps]

If he only needs to pay 800 to win 1150, then based on pot odds, he was clearly correct to call. He's only about 5 to 4 dog. Non-dominated connectors do pretty well against an overcard/undercard combo heads up. What suit the cards are (do you share any suits for 1-card flush possibilities) can change things a percent or two, but regardless he had "odds to call. But he's only about +EV by 3% or so - he only needs to win about 41% of the time (800/1950) to be neutral EV, he wins about 44% of the time (roughly).

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=Jh+Td%0D%0AKc+7s

Doesn't mean it's the right play when factoring in other "meta-tournament" factors, but strictly based on pot odds, it was. Based on your postion and short stack, he was probably right to suspect that you were pushing some crappy/semi-crappy hand, but I still don't think it's a good play for him, since he could be dominated by semi-crap/lose a chunk of his huge chip gap that he could use to start really pushing people around with.

[RPatterson]

He's like a 5 to 3 dog.

[Gramps]

55% to 44% = .55/.44 = 5 to 4

[RPatterson]

I thought an overcard vs. two middle cards was 60/40. I don't need to see that 55/44 is 5 to 4.

[Edge34]

Hey ero,

One question - Why were you moving in with K7 in the first place? Even if you're the short stack I don't like this play much unless you're totally desperately out-stacked. Not to mention, if he had a REALLY big stack, since I don't know how many paid or what the other stacks were, I don't mind this play too much, since he could very well have had you pushing some trash hand, and you were in a way.

-Edge

[RPatterson]

I had I think like 5xbb and the table was 5 handed. I'll take K7 vs. two random blinds hands over hoping I pick up something better in the next 3 hands that doesn't run into a better hand since it's against more players.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't need to see that 55/44 is 5 to 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

E: Hey guys, I have a math question.
G: Here's the answer, you were a 5 to 4 dog (with attached link to twodimes.net showing result), your opponent wins 44% of the time and had odds to call.
E: No, I was a 5 to 3 dog.
G: No...he was a 55% to 44% favorite, you were a 5 to 4 dog
E: You don't need to tell me that 55/44 is 5 to 4...

Apparently I did (and by the way, 60/40 is 3:2, not 5:3, but I'm sure you know that)

When you play SNGs, go to www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net), and plug all the heads up encounters you come across into the poker hand analyzer. You'll develop a better understanding of how hands to HU vs. each other. It's a very useful tool.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Law of the tournament jungle - big stacks take on small ones to bust them out hang the odds. I was in a tournament last week 5 left I had 52s on the button and called both blinds who were all in and it was a very small part of my stack. My job was to try to bust them out.

It's strategy not math here.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is a strategy, but despite its popularity it is not a good strategy. Usually, it is hideously bad. Read TPFAP.

You have no mandate to knock people out. If you make a stupid call, you pay the full price, but get only a tiny fraction of the benefit, and only when you manage to suck out.

One of the reasons a chip and a chair is worth so much is that people will waste a big stack by making this type of call (against you, and against medium stacks), though usually not quite as bad.

[MikeGuz]

Look I have read TPFAP but the fact remains if I can call 2 tiny stacks with 2 or 3% of mine and have a chance to bust them out I will do it every time. No hand is that much better off than another specially when you are going to see all 5 board cards. You guys go out and play some real tournaments for a few years and come back and try to tell me what's up OK!

[MikeGuz]

Then comes here to argue the horrible hand.

I gotta laugh - all in - in a desperate position and called with a fair hand then whines about it.

Sounds like a not so bad beat story. I tried to tell this guy that big stacks will take on small ones specially in these conditions but he refuses to accept it.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Look I have read TPFAP but the fact remains if I can call 2 tiny stacks with 2 or 3% of mine and have a chance to bust them out I will do it every time. No hand is that much better off than another specially when you are going to see all 5 board cards. You guys go out and play some real tournaments for a few years and come back and try to tell me what's up OK!

[/ QUOTE ]

It’s definitely a loose call and I wouldn’t make it. But its not terrible, as a button with 5xBB could be stealing with a wide variety of hands and he’s chip neutral vs. 99-22, A9-A2 and K9-K2 (almost even money), all of which are more likely than AK-AT, TT which he’s in ok but not great shape (2:1 dog). Only AA-JJ is he in big trouble against.

And you should only be calling 3% of your stack if you’re putting in only 10-20% of the money in the pot. Any more than that and you’re paying too much for the priviledge of busting them.

Qc Ah 559647 40.83
Js Ts 512418 37.38
2s 5c 293243 21.39


Qc Ah 565406 41.25
6s 6c 636717 46.45
2s 5c 163079 11.90

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
If he only needs to pay 800 to win 1150, then based on pot odds, he was clearly correct to call. He's only about 5 to 4 dog. Non-dominated connectors do pretty well against an overcard/undercard combo heads up. What suit the cards are (do you share any suits for 1-card flush possibilities) can change things a percent or two, but regardless he had "odds to call. But he's only about +EV by 3% or so - he only needs to win about 41% of the time (800/1950) to be neutral EV, he wins about 44% of the time (roughly).

[/ QUOTE ]

Gramps, this doesn't make sense. The guy didn't know he was up against K7.

[housenuts]

i just did a very similar move. there's 7 left. i'm in the SB and it's folded to me. i have 1040 left and the blinds are 75/150. the guy in the BB had 1815 and had been playing tight. i raised all-in with K3s and he folded.

i went all-in again the next hand with A4s against 2 limpers and everyone folded again.

now i'm back in the hunt and can play tight

[Dominic]

Well, he dates a 15 yr. old. Which shows how screwed up his thought processes can be.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Law of the tournament jungle - big stacks take on small ones to bust them out hang the odds. I was in a tournament last week 5 left I had 52s on the button and called both blinds who were all in and it was a very small part of my stack. My job was to try to bust them out.

It's strategy not math here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are exactly wrong

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking to myself about what a stuipid call that was but then I wondered if he was actually getting the right odds, if he could see my hole cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the question I was originally responding to...

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Look I have read TPFAP but the fact remains if I can call 2 tiny stacks with 2 or 3% of mine and have a chance to bust them out I will do it every time. No hand is that much better off than another specially when you are going to see all 5 board cards. You guys go out and play some real tournaments for a few years and come back and try to tell me what's up OK!

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't tell whether you are intentionally trolling. You have posted bad advice on thread after thread. In case you are serious, thank you for making poker so profitable for the rest of us. If you would like to improve your poker game, I suggest that you pay more attention to what competent people say, rather than spewing your fallacies and misconceptions.

[Desdia72]

the other day in a SNG with 5 players left, i went all-in with a little over 1100 as a shortsack with A 8 suited (blinds were like 100/200, i was in BB)and a LAG player (in SB who limped the extra 100) who had me outchipped by only 100 more called me with 8 9 offsuit and caught a 9 on the turn. was he correct in calling?

[MikeGuz]

LOL - maybe you beter reread what I said - it is what happens in real life. Telling this guy that bigger stacks don't need much to attack smaller ones id a FACT of poker life. Or you one of those guys who likes to call with AQ then fold when an A hits the board. LOL I have been a winning player for many years - go to the archives in the 99 2000 - look up rounder - same advice that helped many a player willing to listen.

[Gramps]

If he could see the community cards that were coming, then yes...

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL - maybe you beter reread what I said - it is what happens in real life.

[/ QUOTE ]
I reread what you said. You cold-called the all-in blinds with 52s. You seem to think this was a good play, because... it's just what people do with big stacks. Everyone else thinks it was a bad play because you are a clear underdog against random hands, you sought chip variance rather than avoiding it, and there is little benefit if you succeed in knocking the short stacks out. What did I miss?

[ QUOTE ]
Telling this guy that bigger stacks don't need much to attack smaller ones id a FACT of poker life.

[/ QUOTE ]
What, if anything, did you mean by that incoherent collection of words?

[ QUOTE ]
Or you one of those guys who likes to call with AQ then fold when an A hits the board.

[/ QUOTE ]
In the hand you are describing, the player had bet the pot on the flop and gotten two callers. A flush card came, pairing the board, the preflop raiser overbet all-in, and someone else called all-in. It takes a much stronger hand to overcall than to call. Yet, you describe it as though the player check-folded on an ace-high flop.

At this point I don't believe you have anything to contribute. I think you are going out of your way to say stupid things in a provocative fashion. I'm going to ignore you henceforth. Good bye.

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
If he could see the community cards that were coming, then yes...

[/ QUOTE ]

but what about the odds? is his play incorrect because we have about the same amount of chips or is it incorrect because he did'nt have a big chiplead over me? i just went out in 6th in a 2-table SNG with A Q. i got called by a guy who probably had me outchipped by 1000. he called with A J and caught a J on the river. was his call correct with odds? i'm trying to understand when it correct and when it is'nt.

[triplc]

The odds of a particular hand after you know what your opponent has is irrelevant. Is a big stack with QQ incorrect to call your all-in button raise with 5xBB when you have KK?


Some of the folks in this thread are too caught up in the final results of what happened and not looking at the situation for what it is. All in with K7o is nuts...unless you look at the situation. With a short stack that still has some power, two random blinds in front of me, I'm likely to take my shot here as well. Especially if I know the blinds to be tight. The big stack in the BB might give me pause...but you are going to have him in front of you nearly every time.

As for the hand in question...I'm not calling 1/4 of my stack with JT. If you had 500 or less, I'm probably going to call with that hand. I will agree with MikeGuz to a point, but with this catch...if I can attempt a knockout with a tiny percentage of my stack AND reasonable pot odds (Example: I'm in the BB of 200 with 27o and someone with 300 raises all in), I'm calling every time. As the percentage of my stack gets larger, and the chances that my hand is not a favorite go up, I fold.

As for the call with JT...here's the thought process, I think. Desperate short stack goes all-in on the button, I have a hand (was it suited?) that has a number of ways to improve, and if I'm up against anything other than an overpair or a bigger J or T, I have a fair chance to knock you out, add to my stack, and waltz to a money finish. If I lose, I still have a good stack with 3000 chips, and still have a decent chance to win and a very good chance to get in the money.

Not to say this is correct thinking, but I don't think this is the worst call I've ever seen...not by a longshot.

Play well,

CCC

[RPatterson]

He has your chips and your broke so obviously it was the right play!

Oh wait, I was just overcome by the spirit of a shitty player.

[RPatterson]

As Jason Strasser said, negative Tchip ev is always negative tournament ev.

[RPatterson]

Calling an all-in is attacking?

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]


and by the way, 60/40 is 3:2, not 5:3, but I'm sure you know that


[/ QUOTE ]

What's 21/15?

[ilya]

Ah, I see. My bad.