AK on bubble

[TylerD]

$33 game on Stars, 4 handed. The game is painfully tight, but also very passive. I have accumulated most of my stack through stealing blinds pre or on the flop. All the players are very tight with little raising or defending of the blinds.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop

UTG (t3720)
Button (t2155)
SB (t2545)
Hero (t5080)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, Button raises to t1000

This is a BIG raise, most likely indicating a hand he doesn't want to see a flop with, perhaps JJ - 66, it is unlikely to be QQ, KK, AA but could possibly be AK, AQ or AJ. What's your plan for the rest of the hand?

[mikey checks]

its a risk but i think fold or put him all in

[TylerD]

Normally I would move in or fold here, but I was pretty sure he had a pocket pair, so I took the unusual step of calling, planning to fold to a bet on the flop if no ace or king fell.

[JFB37]

My thinking about this sort of situation has been changing. When I began playing SNG's I took this sort of proposition frequently. Now, I'm not convinced it is the right move. If your read is correct, and he has a pocket pair QQ or less, you are an 11:10 dog. If he has AA or KK you have serious trouble. You have a comfortable chip lead. Why put it at risk when you are at best in a coin flip situation?

I now think that there is a significant difference between creating the pre-flop coinflip and taking it. You may have to create it when you are short-stacked. You also may want to create it when you have a big stack, to put others to the test. Taking it, however, is really a change from your overall strategy. You have the chips to play aggressively and continue to build your stack. It had been working, why change for what is essentially a gamble?

All that being said, your stated course of just calling -- for 20% of your stack -- is an interesting option. I think, however, that the situation you were in, where you could call the 1000, then fold if no A or K, and still be the chip leader is somewhat unique. Under those circumstances you may have made a good play.