Out of position vs. Howard lederer (5-10 limit)

[bunky9590]

Position schmosition. Game was great. Not a tough player at the table aside from HL. We locked up twice but this hand was played very controversially. I want your opinions. Definitely not my default line of play.

Bunky is in the CO with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif and its folded to me. I raise. The blinds were very weak tight.

Howard Three bets on the button. Blinds fold. Just great. I seriously considered folding but though better of it. I had been open raiseing quite a bit and figured HL might three bet me a little light to apply pressure with posiution and to blow the blinds out of the hand.

Flop comes J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Bunky checks, Howard bets, Bunky check raises, Howard calls.

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Bunky checks, Howard checks.

River: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Bunky bets, Howard calls.

All right, slam away.
Results later.

[BottlesOf]

Yeah, I think you should lead the turn. If he raises, I'd call down.

-Bottles

[bunky9590]

Hey Chris long time.

It was kinda a mistake not to bet the turn, but I had my reasons. I'll explain when I get to post the results. You night actually like it. Keep in mind I was playing against a WCP so ABC isn't gonna cut it.

[pokerraja]

its a must to bet the turn. he showed some weakness just calling your checkraise. dont fear getting raised again, your ahead. i think. lol/\.

[bunky9590]

Valid point on betting the turn. That would be my default.

I made a mistake and gave him the free card on the turn. When he checked the turn It was a very easy river bet.

[sublime]

Bunk-

I am sure you have to tread lightly against somebody of Howards caliber, but the flop was good enough to check raise so why not bet the turn blank?

It seems you were surprised that howard called your flop c/r and didnt reraise you, but you didnt expect him to fold did you?

[sfer]

I like the turn check. When he checks behind and you bet the river a lot of Ace high hands and pocket pairs will call the river bet.

[bunky9590]

No what i expected was a turn raise with a bigger pair if I led out. Hence my check, when he checked behind I knew Darn well I was ahead.

[bunky9590]

BINGO!!!!!!!

You've been learning my friend.

It also avoids the uncomfortable situation if he raises you on the turn.

[MarkD]

Pre-flop you should debate capping it not folding. You want to let HL know you won't be pushed around. You also retain the initiative and put the burden of hitting the flop back on Howard. Having said that, just calling is fine as well.

Given that you just called pre-flop then on the flop I hate the C/R. You have relinquished the iniative. HL is going to bet and you should simply call and then check again on the turn. HL is likely to bet again on the turn unless he specifically has a spade draw.

Then, no matter what, bet the river and call one raise.

[sublime]

No what i expected was a turn raise with a bigger pair if I led out. Hence my check, when he checked behind I knew Darn well I was ahead.

True-

But you also run the risk of letting overcards get a free peek. There is also the slight chance that he has two spades (very slight)

I think the fact that it was an LP open raise and he 3 bet you preflop points towards a turn bet here.

[EchoOfThunder]

Howard making it 3 bets on the button implies pocket pair and or a-x suited and or ak/aq.

your check raise was good, him ONLY calling showed he didnt have aj, so you probably didnt have to worry about a kicker. However, he does have a hand and it plays into the board somehow.

I like the turn check to trap a smaller pocket pair like tens or maybe an a8 suited. Would have been trouble if he did have a8; however, he didnt have an 8 from his weak call on the river, so its likely he had pocket tens, or maybe ak, or in the worst case, he had KJs and was afraid of aj.

[cold_cash]

What do you do if he bets the turn after you check to him?

[MarkD]

Call 100% of the time. Well, I do at least, not sure about bunky.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop you should debate capping it not folding

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[ QUOTE ]
You want to let HL know you won't be pushed around.

[/ QUOTE ]

This he already knows. At this point of the session I was up 20BB. I've come back over the top of him on other occasions as well. Weve played a bunch of hand together and he realizes I have 2 brain cells to rub together.

[ QUOTE ]
Given that you just called pre-flop then on the flop I hate the C/R. You have relinquished the iniative

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought for certain that I took the initiative back, but maybe I'm nuts.


[ QUOTE ]
HL is likely to bet again on the turn unless he specifically has a spade draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Perfectly fine line, But I think he bets the spade draw as well.

[34TheTruth34]

since nobody else asked, what the hell is Howard Lederer doing in a 5/10 game??? Online?

[bunky9590]

easy call. very very easy.

[bunky9590]

Yeah online. Propping the full tilt tables.

[34TheTruth34]

ahh, makes sense

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that you just called pre-flop then on the flop I hate the C/R. You have relinquished the iniative.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main reason he was able to CR the flop is because he only called preflop. Also, do you not think that the flop CR has gained the iniative?

[ QUOTE ]
HL is going to bet and you should simply call and then check again on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea why you would sugggest this. I think bunky needs to CR for VALUE. I'm probably too ABC, but this flop cr is standard. Can you explain your line here?

[bunky9590]

Alright , I checked the turn because Howard has a big propensity to raise the turn. I was going to call if he bet. When he checked behind I put him on AK/AQ.

When the board paired the river I knew I had him. I bet, He called and showed AKo.

Howard said he wasnt calling a turn bet, but yet he called the river because he thought I had a busted draw. So even though I gave him the free card, I still got a bet out of him by taking the line I did.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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Pre-flop you should debate capping it not folding
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Huh?

Quote:
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You want to let HL know you won't be pushed around.
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This he already knows. At this point of the session I was up 20BB. I've come back over the top of him on other occasions as well. Weve played a bunch of hand together and he realizes I have 2 brain cells to rub together.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just offered another perspective. I dont' think capping pre-flop is out of line here at all and I provided reasoning for it. I obviously don't know the history between you two at this point in the session and head's up play is very dependent on recent history. I do think folding is just plain wrong so that only leaves two other options.

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Given that you just called pre-flop then on the flop I hate the C/R. You have relinquished the iniative
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I thought for certain that I took the initiative back, but maybe I'm nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

You misread. Actually, my writing was unclear. I meant that you had given up iniative pre-flop and I was trying to seqway into my rope a dope line saying why I thought the CR was wrong. Obviously my point was unclear.

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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HL is likely to bet again on the turn unless he specifically has a spade draw.
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Perfectly fine line, But I think he bets the spade draw as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, I'm kind of counting on this fact actually. My point about him only checking behind with the spade draw is that in general my line collects a bet from him on the turn more often than not.

Ok, obviously my line is unclear because it appears both you and Joker didn't understand it (I'm very sure this is my fault due to the way I wrote it) and don't agree with it. Also, I should state that "hate" was much to strong of word to use about the flop CR. I do think it was suboptimal (depending on history since it appears you have a lot of history with HL during this session which changes things).

I'll try to explain it better now. On the flop we can telegraph a bet from HL. I am personally not afraid of the flush draw on the flop. I would also think that it is likely that we are ahead of Howard here. Obviously you did too since your CR is for value.

So he bets and we call and we get to the turn for 1sb where we check again. I argue that Howerd will bet this turn nearly 100% of the time with the hands that he will 3-bet us with pre-flop. We have become weak and he will want to finish us off.

On the river we now bet out. Our hand is very hard to read. He can’t put us on a queen with any certainty but he may put us on a busted flush draw who is trying to buy the pot. He will probably call us with the same aces and underpairs that he would with the line you chose (checking the turn after check raising). Thus we will often get another big bet on the river.

Why I dislike the CR on the flop is that if we take the standard line of following it up with a bet on the turn then it’s fairly easy for Howard to get away from his weaker range of hands.

I’m sorry I was unclear in my initial response. I would like to clarify that I don’t “hate” your line and nothing is clear in head’s up play, but I do prefer my the above line in this situation as we will often get 2.5BB’s into the pot instead of 1 or 2.

[MarkD]

See my response to Bunky. My initial post was unclear obviously. I hope that I clarified things.

[MarkD]

I think all of this further strengthens my line and my reasoning.

[bunky9590]

Clarification is much clearer.

Nothing wrong with that way either.

[Saborion]

I believe checking the turn has some merits. If he has you beat, you'll lose as little as possible. If he has AK he has 6 outs to beat you. With AJ-AT he only has 3 outs. If he has a spade draw he has 9-15 outs. He won't have the spade that often though, and by checking he will call a river bet sometimes.

The pot contains 5 BBs on the turn. You'll lose the pot around 6 times out of 46, which is rarely. If you expect him to pay 1 BB with an A-high hand on the river at least 6 times out of all the times he doesn't improve, then checking the turn like you did should be profitable. That is, unless he's calling a turn bet too. Or am I wrong now?

What would you have done if the river had brought a non-spade Q?

[Richard Berg]

Excellent play, bunky.
[ QUOTE ]
I do prefer my the above line in this situation as we will often get 2.5BB’s into the pot instead of 1 or 2.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't. Before the flop you are very likely to be behind! The equity you lose before hitting top pair cannot be made up (on average) against a world champion.

[MarkD]

I was referring to the post-flop play. You get 2.5BB's into the pot post flop with top pair. I am not referring to pre-flop play at all when I stated this number.

My comment about capping pre-flop was not meant to be a standard play. It was more of a response to Bunky stating that he thought about folding pre-flop after he get 3-bet by Howard. I would almost never cap in this spot with QJs and don't want to dwell on the issue, but it is better than folding.

[Nemesis]

In my calculations the turn holds 5.5 BB's on the turn, in THIS CASE if bunky bets he takes it down 100% of the time (according to HL) So in this case taking down a 5.5 BB pot 8 times = 44 BB profit. If you check the turn and he calls your bet every time your ahead, but raises you when he hits his AK then you expect him to draw out 1 in 7 time or so with an A or K. So 7 times you'll get another BB out of him for 6.5 BB's *7 = 45.5 BB - 2 bets going in on the river whne your behind for a net of 44.5 which is a loss. Maybe i'm doign that wrong, but it seems better to pick up the pot now instead of letting him have odds to draw out on you free.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent play, bunky.


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought against a WCP out of position, I would have lost the least and gained the most with this line of play. (Providing he didnt hit his 6 outer that is.)

He flat told me after the hand he wasnt calling the turn, but decided to call the river blank becasue he thought I was trying to buy it.

I left the game up 40BB. Howard didn't mess with me much.

[bunky9590]

Completely rational. What you have to think of is in this and future sessions is the mix up play. Not saying I'd do this play all the time. But in that situation against him it seemed like a good idea at the time.

I sure would hate for him to raise me on the turn though.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
So in this case taking down a 5.5 BB pot 8 times = 44 BB profit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you get 8 from?

[ QUOTE ]
If you check the turn and he calls your bet every time your ahead, but raises you when he hits his AK then you expect him to draw out 1 in 7 time or so with an A or K.

[/ QUOTE ]
Would bunky really bet if an A or a K comes on the river? He has nothing to gain doing so, unless he thinks Howard will fold a worse hand. I can't see Howard doing that though, since I'd say Howard doesn't have KJ, AJ, QQ or KK.

[ QUOTE ]
So 7 times you'll get another BB out of him for 6.5 BB's *7 = 45.5 BB - 2 bets going in on the river whne your behind for a net of 44.5 which is a loss.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not following you here. Can you please explain it to me like I'm a child?

I thought it was:
Bunky bet turn, Howard folds, profit is 5.5 BBs

Bunky check turn, Howard check, Bunky bet river as long as it's not a spade, an A or a K, Howard calls. This will happen 31 times out of 46.
6 times and A or a K will fold. Bunky check, Howard bet, Bunky calls.
Sometimes Howard will have the spade draw, and it'll hit, meaning Bunky saves money by checking the turn and calling the river. We are to charge the draws, yes, but we don't know what Howard has. And isn't it possible that sometimes when the spade hits, Howard might try a bluff? Can we simply neglect the spade draw in our calculations? If so, then by checking Bunky will, on average, make a profit of (31 times he'll bet and will be called) - (6 times an A or a K comes and Bunky check-calls and lose the whole pot) = 31*1 - 6*6.5 = -8 BB's.

Even if Bunky check-fold the river when an A or a K comes, it'll be -EV to check the turn. 31*1 - 6*5.5 = -2 BB's.

If Bunky would bet the spade cards as well, and if Howard calls a couple of times, then it'd be +EV to check the turn. Or maybe if Howard has AQ and raise if the river card is a Q, but I'm not sure he'd do that, would he?

Am I wrong here?

[MicroBob]

yes. there is some legitimacy behind his thinking that you were trying to buy-it.

you raised from the CO afterall so it looks like a border-line blind-steal.....especially if it's a scary looking card that does NOT help him.
so to that end, if he raises you on the river you almost have to call here....because he is thinking the card did NOT help you but also thinks you will be afraid of it helping him.


your C/R on the flop could have represented middle-pair, a draw, overcards, anything. he could see it as a total bluff....especially after you checked the turn.


i'm not entirely sure it's the right play since i don't like giving free-cards. but your line of thinking is pretty solid if you ask me.
you determined that HL would read you as having nothing if you checked AND that there was a significantly greater chance that he would call the river.

there's also the possibility that he could really try to get wise with you on the river and raise with a weaker hand. if he REALLY thinks you're on a bluff he could try to scare you away.

thus, since i think he can raise with a worse hand on a scary-board, there is a chance that playing it this way will pick up TWO extra-bets on the river.
he is not going to try this play (I think!!! LOL) without you having checked the turn.

[Nemesis]

I chose 8 times because 1:7 was the odds of Howard catching a king or an ace so i chose checking it 8 times as opposed to betting it 8 times. He wins all 8 that are checked to him, and he gains 1 bet 7 times, but loses the whole pot and another 1 maybe 2 bets the one time he misses. It seems that this play is very close in EV, and i hope i made some sense. I was having some trouble trying to do the calculations for his EV, i wasn't sure how to factor in his losing the pot, whether to say he loses 6.5 BB's or just 1 more BB because he calls the bet or 2 because he bets it and gets raised. So that's where i'm coming from.

[BottlesOf]

I definitely understand the need to mix it up, and I think I know what you're going to say about checking the turn, and I think I still like betting out. But, I look forward to your response and other people's thoughts.

[CptMisery]

That was exactly what I was thinking while reading this thread!

[bunky9590]

Yeash I sure as heck played it like a poorly played flush draw out of position. He had to cal that river with AK.

As far as someone saying he'd raise on the end with AK> Doesn't make sense. If he thinks I'm bluffing, he can beat a bluff by just showing down. If he raises he may face a three bet. Nah I just got him o this hand, but I have to be careful against him in the future.

[bunky9590]

Yeah its pretty weel split between checking and betting. Its has to be real close because I usually bet the turn and only sometimes check it.